D-backs (Tommy Henry, LHP) @ Nationals (Jake Irvin, RHP)
Braves (Bryce Elder, RHP) @ Phillies (Aaron Nola, RHP)
Athletics (JP Sears, LHP) @ Guardians (Logan Allen, LHP)
Red Sox (Justin Garza, RHP) @ Twins (Joe Ryan, RHP)

Good morning! It’s Thursday, which means we’ve got some early games to draft today. This slate is downright ugly. Let’s see if we can find some angles. There’s also an afternoon slate, which I’ll write up after this.

Pitching Preferences
Joe Ryan
Logan Allen
Aaron Nola
JP Sears
Bryce Elder
Tommy Henry

Joe Ryan is in his own tier today. He’s had an excellent season on the whole, but has not been so in his last four starts. He’s sporting a 6.06 ERA during that span, including a 6 ER game to Detroit at home. The Red Sox are one of the best offenses on this slate today, so it’s not ideal for us. This makes Joe Ryan a nice to have, but not a need to have today.

Speaking of good pitchers with tough matchups, Aaron Nola against the Braves is definitively not fun. He’s taken a step back this season and has become hard to trust. He’s a brand name today, and that alone is responsible for his 7.3 ADP, making him the SP2 behind Ryan. The strikeouts are there, but this will be tough for Nola. I’m not going to be taking him earlier than the 4th round today.

What if Bryce Elder is just legitimately good? I’m not convinced, but he’s good right now. He’s the SP4 today and goes at 15.1 ADP as of writing this. I’m not going to feel great about taking him today, but the other options aren’t great either.

Which leads me to JP Sears taking on the Guardians today. No, they don’t strikeout much. No, Sears hasn’t been flawless or even that good this year. But I’m going to be riding him today. He’s the SP5 on the slate against a Guardians team that is primarily left handed and can’t really do much damage against lefty pitchers. Feels bad, but I’m going big on Sears today. Would could go wrong?

Favorite Teams
D-backs
Phillies (cost adjusted)
Braves
Nationals

As far as stacks go, these are my favorite four. Phillies make for a really interesting stack today, because they don’t go off the board currently until pick 13. I’ll take my chances on them today and take Bryce Elder’s excellent results head on. YOLO.

Braves are expensive today against Aaron Nola. Which feels bad. But I’m trying to strip the names off these pitchers and look more objectively at the matchups, which helps swallow the cost of the Braves today. They’re chalk per ADP, so they could also make for an excellent fade. If I was only drafting 10 teams, I would fade Atlanta today.

The Nationals on the other hand are taking on a lefty, a mid one at that. They are going to win someone a slate today. Onslaught them, mix them up in stacks, however you prefer. But they’re in a fantastic spot and will be undrafted at a disrespectful clip today.

Some one-offs I like from each team:
Esteury Ruiz
Stone Garrett
Orlando Arcia
Max Kepler
Bryson Stott
Josh Naylor
Geraldo Perdomo
Adam Duvall

The last few slates for me have been rough, my worst ROI in a two game sample all season. I’ve been making stands and enjoying the extended bankroll leash from winning last weekend, but it’s time for me to reel it in and stick with my usual daily bankroll. I wish you luck!

Nez