Astros (Ronel Blanco, RHP) @ Dodgers (Bobby Miller, RHP)
Twins (Pablo Lopez, RHP) @ Tigers (Reese Olson, RHP)
Nationals (Josiah Gray, RHP) @ Padres (Matt Waldron, RHP, Knuckleballer!)
Angels (Griffin Canning, RHP) @ Rockies (Chase Anderson, RHP)

Good afternoon! It’s main slate time, and we’ve got ourselves a beautiful four game slate to attack. It features one very obvious team to stack, and a meh selection of pitching. We love it, actually. Let’s go.

Pitching Preferences
Pablo Lopez
Bobby Miller
Josiah Gray
Reese Olson
Ronel Blanco
Griffin Canning
Chase Anderson

Today is a game of chicken – who will be the last one forced to take a pitcher at Coors? I can’t see myself getting to any Chase Anderson, but I’m leaving him in that list because those are literally all of the options today, and six must go in every draft.
Pablo Lopez has an ADP of 5 as of writing this, and I completely get it. He has a great matchup against the Tigers, and the rest of the SP today aren’t fun to take. But if they all end up sucking, and you paid up for one, you’re just the person who wasted high draft capital on a couple points, which is definitely in the range of outcomes here. The Tigers are pesky; they’re not as bad as you might think. And when the top 10 in ADP for batters looks like this, you might just be better off hoping Pablo doesn’t separate today.

How many future Hall of Famers can you spot here?

“OK, so Pablo Lopez has the best matchup, but you don’t think he’s going to separate from other SP. Tell me who to draft then Mr. Takes!”
That’s a very fair statement from my very own Straw Man. Here’s what I think I’ll do.

– Pass on Lopez unless he falls to the 3rd round
– Draft Bobby Miller if he is there in the 3rd round
– Draft Reese Olson or Josiah Gray ASAP if Lopez and Miller are gone in the 3rd Round, and construct your team accordingly based on which SP you take

Canning, to be honest, isn’t awful today. The Rockies are downright depressing, granted they just defeated the Angels last night in a quintessential Tungsten Arm O’Doyle game as Ohtani was a triple away from the cycle last night. I just want to avoid him today as often as I can, because at the end of the day, Coors is Coors. If I end up with 0% of him, I’ve succeeded. If I lose because he has the game on the slate, then I will give him an ovation and take my L with grace.

Also, our omitted SP on the slate today is Matt Waldron of the Padres. He’s a 26 year old right handed knuckleballer! That’s cool, we haven’t seen that since 2021. I’ll move on to offenses next and provide more actionable thoughts on Waldron.

Favorite Teams
Angels
Padres
Dodgers
Nationals
Rockies
Twins
Astros
Tigers

So as I mentioned, Nationals get a knuckleballer today. His minor league numbers are pretty bad. There is risk in taking the Nationals today, because the variance in what kind of results a knuckleballer can bring is strong. He could go the entire game without giving up an earned run, or he can be chased out of the first inning. I’m going to trust the numbers I see from the minors and take some stands on the Nationals today. They won’t be my highest owned team today, but I foresee myself getting over the field on them.

The Angels are at Coors against Chase Anderson.

The Padres are at home against Josiah Gray. I love Josiah Gray, but I fear regression (the bad kind) could be headed his way in this game. He’s allowed six home runs in his last four starts, which has been his issue in the past. But he is still sporting a sub-4 ERA on the year, and his expected stats don’t indicate he’s awful. It’s tough to publish this and take a bold stance on Gray muting the Padres today, but I’ll call a boom or bust type of play, where maybe you fade (most) of the Padres and take Gray more than the other SP today and hope he keeps up the season he’s put together thus far. It’s worth a shot today, and you can still build for the opposite outcome a few times to hedge that bet.

Astros get Bobby Miller, a nice right handed rookie who just recently got shelled against My Giants. The Astros in their current form are not a better team than the Giants, and I don’t think are well equipped to handle him today. If I don’t take Bobby Miller I may sprinkle in some Kyle Tucker here and there, but I will really need to force myself to take any Astros bats today.

Ronel Blanco for the Astros has been ok, but seems to be in over his head against the Dodgers today. I’m a little surprised that after Freeman and Betts going 7 and 8 respectively, the next Dodger off the board currently is Will Smith at pick 23. Today is not a day to be riding the #NeverDodgers bit. These are great costs to be taking plenty of them today against a 29 year old with very little experience starting games at the Major League level.

Good luck today! Shoutout to Hope last night for taking 4th place in the main slate and giving the old Take Sheet a shout out. I loved seeing that, and I was more than happy to explain what a Quality Start was to someone for the first time on the verge of winning a few hundred dollars. I hope her W can inspire some others to dip their toes in the MLB streets and help build that bankroll for future contests.

See you all on Monday! Enjoy the rest of your weekends.

Nez