Reds (Brandon Williamson, LHP) @ Orioles (Cole Irvin, LHP)*
Brewers (Colin Rea, RHP) @ Mets (Justin Verlander, RHP)*
Twins (Sonny Gray, RHP) @ Braves (Spencer Strider, RHP)
Tigers (Matthew Boyd, LHP) @ Rangers (Andrew Heaney, LHP)
White Sox (Dylan Cease, RHP) @ Angels (Reid Detmers, LHP)
Nationals (Trevor Williams, RHP) @ Mariners (Luis Castillo, RHP)

Today’s weather

Good morning! It is Monday June 26th and there is baseball being played, at least in some parts of the country anyhow. We’ve got a six game slate on tap with some unfortunate weather in a couple of them. Baltimore and Queens, New York look to be legitimately threatening today for our contest. But like I will always caveat, Roth is more cautious than not. So for now, we’re going to act like these games will be played.

Pitching Preferences
Spencer Strider
Luis Castillo
Andrew Heaney
Dylan Cease
Justin Verlander*
Reid Detmers
Brandon Williamson*
Trevor Williams
Matthew Boyd
Colin Rea*
Cole Irvin*

There they are. We have two major standouts today in Strider and Castillo. The former is facing the Twins, AKA the most strikeout happy team in the league (27% K rate vs RHP), and the latter is taking on a right handed dominant Nationals lineup that unfortunately strikes out the least against RHP, but is sporting an 86 wRC+ as a team against RHP. We like both of these guys today, a lot. They’re both obvious first rounders today.

After that, you really have to do a little bit of hoping that these guys don’t get blown up if you take them. Cease, Verlander, Detmers, and Heaney all have 5+ ER in their range of outcomes today, but I’ll put my money on Heaney being the least likely to suffer that fate. The Tigers rank 24th in team wRC+ against LHP while being in the middle of the pack in K%. Heaney will become more expensive as more drafts take place, so maybe get ahead of that by taking him in the 4th or 5th before it happens.

If the Mets game plays, I’ll certainly let Verlander steal my money again facing the Brewers, who ever since I donned them as stinky a couple posts back have been playing pretty well. Verlander also isn’t very cheap at the moment. He might be someone I’ll wait and see on as we get more clarity in the weather forecast, but someone that I’d like to have in a vacuum on this slate.

Favorite Teams
Reds
Braves
Rangers
Orioles
Mets
Mariners
Angels
White Sox
Twins
Nationals

The Reds are on another level right now. Since Elly De La Cruz‘s call up, they’re 3rd in the league in OPS at .841, and now get to face a lefty pitcher (weather permitting) in Cole Irvin, who is rocking a 7.71 ERA on the season. One problem with this spot is Camden Yards and the dimensions in left field. It absolutely kills homers, and the Reds have almost certainly benefitted from their home park along that aforementioned stretch. It feels really bad letting that strange wall mute our Reds exposure too strongly though. They’re legit, and loaded with righty bats. I’ll be stacking them quite a bit today.

The Braves take on Sonny Gray, who actually does a pretty good job of minimizing his opponents outputs, righty or lefty. He’s averaging 90 pitches a game this season, up from 78 last season. He doesn’t often make it to the 6th inning. So, if you’re looking at Gray’s results and feeling iffy about the Braves, I don’t blame you, but I would be surprised if he takes his start past 5 innings, which gives us half a game to see the Twins bullpen. At any rate, it’s the Braves. They’re very good. Michael Harris II has been slowly heating up, so I think if you end up with a lot of Ronald Acuna Jr today, maybe tack on some Michael Harris for the 9-1 stack that won’t be utilized very often today.

I suppose I need to address My Rangers. Ever since I’ve spun up this blog, they’ve been atrocious. I’d be lying if I said I’m not going back to that well today in some capacity against Matthew Boyd. I think might actually be the best spot the Rangers will get all season. They’re not that expensive today and Matthew Boyd is just good enough that people, in my estimation, will not make the Rangers a priority today. This is all guesswork and wish casting at this juncture as I’m still waiting to get into my first lobby today, but I know the field is not high on the Rangers today. I still believe. I’m still taking them. I wouldn’t blame you if you chose not to though.

The Mets are facing Colin Rea today, who is frustrating for fantasy. He’s not good, but he hasn’t given up more than 4 ER yet this season. Which is to say, he hasn’t provided us with any fantasy winners yet. That could definitely change today. The Mets are underperforming terribly, and it’s reflected in ADP. IMO, they are always liable to blow up a slate though, as we’ve recently seen last week against Hunter Brown of all pitchers.

This team is freely available, and should have some stacks built out in a high volume portfolio due to the leverage of weather FUD and recency bias.

The Big Fly is back as I was proofreading this post. That’s awesome – $50, double entry, 4k prizes, 1k to first. Now the question becomes, how do you attack a double entry small field contest? I think the answer is going stack heavy. Five-man onslaughts feel safe. Trying to hit an uncorrelated parlay essentially will have better odds here than in the main slate as well to add another wrinkle to this. I will be waiting as late as possible to draft my entry, as I will want to know as many starting lineups as possible and have the most up to date weather forecast. I will share my entries in this post once they’re complete.

Best of luck today! I hope you have a fantastic week. See you tomorrow.

Nez