Reds (Graham Ashcraft, RHP) @ Nationals (Josiah Gray, RHP)
Orioles (Dean Kremer, RHP) @ Yankees (Randy Vasquez, RHP)
Rangers (Jon Gray, RHP) @ Red Sox (Brayan Bello, RHP)
Braves (Michael Soroka, RHP) @ Guardians (Cal Quantrill, RHP)
Royals (Alec Marsh, RHP) @ Twins (Pablo Lopez, RHP)
Blue Jays (Jose Berrios, RHP) @ White Sox (Lance Lynn, RHP)
Cubs (Justin Steele, LHP) @ Brewers (Adrian Houser, RHP)
Angels (Patrick Sandoval, LHP) @ Padres (Seth Lugo, RHP)
Mariners (Tommy Milone, LHP) @ Giants (Alex Cobb, RHP)
Mets (Kodai Senga, RHP) @ D-backs (Tommy Henry, LHP)
Pirates (Osvaldo Bido, RHP) @ Dodgers (Bobby Miller, RHP)

Pitching Preferences
Pablo Lopez
Justin Steele
Kodai Senga
Jose Berrios
Brayan Bello
Seth Lugo
Jon Gray
Alex Cobb
Josiah Gray
Dean Kremer
Adrian Houser
Patrick Sandoval
Lance Lynn
Graham Ashcraft
Bobby Miller

Good morning! I hope everyone had a great 4th of July yesterday. Underdog dropped their first Pomeranian tournament of 2023, and the 33k rake free tournament filled within hours, on a holiday meant to be spent outdoors. Really sick stuff by the consumers. But it goes to show the lengths people will go in order to soak up some EV, plus over half of those drafts were slow drafts to be fair. Shoutout to the good people on both sides for that.

I am still riding a cold streak unfortunately, teetering at a break even level for the past week plus. Still, I rise. My volume, being that I am still home in PA, will be lower than my normal fighting weight as it has been since Thursday. But I think we can get there today. I really like when the slate is full of mid pitching, and that’s exactly what we’ve got going on right here.

Pablo Lopez is one of our clear standout today against Kansas City. In 6-person drafts, I’m not sure he’s a first rounder. But in The Cycle, he is a top 5 pick for certain. He has prop lines of 7.5 Ks, 18.5 Outs, and 1.5 ER. The Royals are not very good.

Justin Steele continues to get good results. I’ve been bought in from the start. He gets Milwaukee today, who as a team rank dead last in OPS against LHP. Steele, IMO, is a first round pick in The Cycle. Snag him in the late 2nd or 3rd in the Walk-Off Wednesday.

I have a hard time with Kodai Senga. His results have been very good, but he always feels like he is on the cusp of giving up runs in bunches during his starts due to walks. The D-backs are good, but the pitching on this slate is not. Senga, along with the aforementioned pitchers, will represent a tier break at SP today.

Brayan Bello is similar to Senga, in that he has a tough matchup (Bello up against the Rangers) but is one of the best pitchers today. If I miss out on my top three, I can see myself opting for Bello more often than not, but I’ll likely wait until the 5th or 6th round for my pitcher if I do miss on those names.

I like Seth Lugo today a good bit. No Trout, and potentially no Ohtani either. The Angels can provide a solid K floor for Lugo today, and I think he will go overlooked in both contests.

Favorite Teams
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers
Minnesota Twins
San Diego Padres
Toronto Blue Jays
San Francisco Giants
Baltimore Orioles
Washington Nationals

Here’s my initial read on offenses today. The Mets really stick out to me against Tommy Henry. To my surprise, they’re only putting up a .717 OPS against LHP this season. But Pete Alonso and Tommy Pham, along with the rest of the lineup, are not difficult to pair today. They’re at Chase Field, so it’s a slight bump to them being away from Queens.

The Braves are always a team to target. They’re easy to onslaught today, and why not? They face Cal Quantrill today, who is the living embodiment of mediocrity. Stack ’em up.

The Twins face “Alec Marsh” today with great hitting conditions. I don’t know who he is, but buddy gave up 5 ER in 4.0 IP in his first and only start this season against the Dodgers. He did serve up 5 Ks as well, and the Twins do strike out a lot. So, I guess there’s a path to failure there, and the Twins love to let me down. But I’m recommending them today in this post. I’m going to want to see what the starting lineup looks like, but I think we can safely draft Edouard Julien, Byron Buxton, and I guess Carlos Correa if that’s your thing. The matchup is so good that we should probably just ignore Correa’s 2023 up until this point, but man has he disappointed.

The Dodgers are up against My Pirates and Osvaldo Bido. They lit up Luis Ortiz last night but still ended up losing because Jack Suwinski is either the best player breathing or the worst player to play baseball, with no in between. But Bido – he’s fine, not great. He will probably strike out more than 4 today, which is his current line for UD Pick’em. But it’s the Dodgers, and he is Osvaldo Bido. Bednar threw over 20 pitches yesterday across 1.2 IP, so I doubt he’s available today either. #NeverDodgers, but maybe #SometimesDodgers, like today. James Outman might be back, by the way.

My sneaky stack of the day is the Nationals. Graham Ashcraft just had a nice outing against the Padres, but other than that he is giving up 3 or more ER routinely. The Nationals are sporting a .684 OPS against RHP this season, but it’s Ashcraft, so I’m thinking thats a data point we can ignore and take advantage of an ok top of the order against a bad pitcher.

The Orioles will just continue to lose me money until they don’t, I guess. They get Randy Vásquez today, a rookie RHP who has had two good outings thus far. His four-seam seems pretty legit, but rookies tend to regress hard when they do. Orioles against a RHP is a boilerplate stack for me. If you’re tired of them losing you money, I don’t blame you. But I will be there no matter what. It’s Colton Cowser day, though we can’t draft him just yet. He’s one to watch though for future drafts.

Good luck today! I hope you guys win some money. I’m anxious to get back on stream again, but until then, see you guys here tomorrow.

Nez