Shoutout to the one and only Neumy for putting these resources together. His sheet game is top notch, and these links are testament to that. These are excellent resources to review whether you are entering this contest for the first time or for your 100th draft.
The Schedule Breakdown is useful for identifying who is playing more often, where they are playing, and who they are playing. I’m targeting Astros in this contest for example, because they play the Royals twice (3rd worst team ERA in baseball), the Athletics (worst ERA in baseball), and the Orioles (15th worst) in the Championship round. They come with their own baggage in the form of injuries, but not trying to get too into the weeds on them specifically. Simply pointing out an edge that can be gleaned from this specific link.
Elly De La Cruz, man. I’m not sure there was a bigger edge in the early draft window than him hiding in the 18th-20th rounds of drafts. Sadly, I was not smart enough to be taking him. I was, and still am, skeptical of his ability to maintain the level of which he is playing for this season. He is going to have an incredible career, and is absolutely Good For Baseball. He highlights the largest (positive) ADP change in this contest, and it’s not close (RIP Jacob deGrom, though). I’m not sure that fading big ADP movers thus far is optimal, though. Elly was only being drafted in that late range for a very small percentage of drafts. With well over half of all drafts left to go and Elly going at a premium price for about a month, he’s not someone I would consider going full “game theory-bro” over. I will not have as much of him simply because of the players that go around him.
Elly aside, the ADP Movers sheet is fun to look at, see who is moving, and identify who has more room to run to get ahead of further movement as drafts rage on at a blistering pace until Friday 4PM ET.
BATX rest of season projections are great to review for a number of reasons. They help remind us of who these players are and were expected to be in the midst of drafting a tournament in a market set by human beings who are easily swayed by how well a player did or didn’t play the day prior. Finding major deltas in these projections versus ADP is something I am planning on incorporating this week as I marathon my remaining drafts on my quest to maxing this tournament. These projections are not to be taken as gospel, but merely a way to help make decisions, all things considered.
With all of these resources at your disposal to review, it’s now time for the most important information you can utilize while drafting – My Takes. I have some favorites in this contest, such as the previously stated Astros dues to championship schedule. to start, here are my top exposures so far in this contest for transparencies sake.
Out of all of these names above, here is who I am currently targeting ahead of ADP currently.
- LaMonte Wade Jr
- Mitch Keller
- Hunter Brown
- Andrew McCutchen
- Joe Musgrove
I am really into Joe Musgrove having a monster 2nd half, and his ADP of 89 to me is about 20 picks too late.
We’re seeing Musgrove get more chase out of the zone as the season has progressed. He’s increased the use of his curveball per Baseball Savant, and the results are following. I plan on making Musgrove a staple on the rest of the teams.
Best of luck the rest of the week! I still don’t think this contest will completely fill, but I’m taking a new stand that it will fill 90% of the way by lock on Friday. Time will tell. Until then, sub to Badge Bros on the main channel and our UD MLB channel as well. Thx.
Nez
Take Sheet 