7/21 Friday Fastball + The Cycle

Giants (Alex Wood, LHP) @ Nationals (Jake Irvin, RHP)
Royals (Alec Marsh, RHP) @ Yankees (Clarke Schmidt, RHP)
D-backs (Tommy Henry, LHP) @ Reds (Ben Lively, RHP)
Mets (Kodai Senga, RHP) @ Red Sox (Kutter Crawford, RHP)
Phillies (Ranger Suarez, LHP) @ Guardians (Gavin Williams, RHP)
Dodgers (Tony Gonsolin, RHP) @ Rangers (Andrew Heaney, LHP)
White Sox (Lance Lynn, RHP) @ Twins (Joe Ryan, RHP)
Braves (Mike Soroka, RHP) @ Brewers (Freddy Peralta, RHP)
Pirates (Johan Oviedo, RHP) @ Angels (Shohei Ohtani, RHP)
Astros (Framber Valdez, LHP) @ Athletics (JP Sears, LHP)
Blue Jays (Yusei Kikuchi, LHP) @ Mariners (Bryce Miller, RHP)

Today’s weather

Good morning! It’s Friday, so congratulations on making it to the weekend. We’ve got eleven games to draft from today, which is the high end of the goldilocks zone for slate size. I’ve been flirting with first all week, and am starting feel good about my process again. I’ve increased my volume since the All-Star Break, and I regret to inform it’s made a noticeable difference. I’ll expand on that at the end. Let’s get into some lists + musings first.

Pitching Preferences

  1. Framber Valdez
  2. Joe Ryan
  3. JP Sears
  4. Yusei Kikuchi
  5. Bryce Miller
  6. Kodai Senga
  7. Ranger Suarez
  8. Kutter Crawford
  9. Clarke Schmidt
  10. Lance Lynn
  11. Johan Oviedo
  12. Mike Soroka

Favorite Teams

  1. D-backs
  2. Braves
  3. Dodgers
  4. Rangers
  5. Reds
  6. Nationals
  7. Yankees
  8. Giants
  9. Red Sox
  10. Mets

Batter Ranks

  1. Ronald Acuna Jr
  2. Shohei Ohtani
  3. Corbin Carroll
  4. Mookie Betts
  5. Freddie Freeman
  6. Matt Olson
  7. Austin Riley
  8. Matt McLain
  9. Spencer Steer
  10. Christian Yelich
  11. Will Smith
  12. Giancarlo Stanton
  13. Christian Walker
  14. Ketel Marte
  15. Corey Seager
  16. Nathaniel Lowe
  17. Jose Ramirez
  18. J.D. Martinez
  19. Josh Jung
  20. Edourard Julien
  21. Carlos Correa
  22. Luis Robert Jr
  23. Masataka Yoshida
  24. Francisco Lindor
  25. Kyle Schwarber
  26. Julio Rodriguez
  27. Vladimir Guerrero Jr
  28. Chas McCormick
  29. Rafael Devers
  30. Alex Bregman
  31. Michael Conforto
  32. Gleyber Torres
  33. Lane Thomas
  34. Kyle Tucker
  35. Alex Verdugo
  36. Jonathan India
  37. Ezequiel Duran
  38. Trea Turner
  39. Taylor Ward
  40. Bryce Harper
  41. Joey Meneses
  42. Anthony Volpe
  43. Alex Kiriloff
  44. Max Kepler
  45. Stone Garrett
  46. Mike Yastrzemski
  47. Wilmer Flores
  48. Salvador Perez
  49. Bobby Witt Jr
  50. Mickey Moniak

Today will be a ton of fun to draft. I love when JP Sears pitches at home, because the field loves to stack bats against the A’s without any context. We’re not seeing yesterday’s level of hype as they fell flat in that game, but their top 4 is going in nearly every draft.

One of the best spots today includes both the D-backs and Reds in Great American Small Park against two pitchers that are over-performing. I will be stacking both sides of this game in hopes the regression monster comes out to play in a big way.

Another game that I like both sides of is Giants @ Nationals. It’s the ideal spot for both teams – Nationals get a lefty, Giants get a righty. One issue for the Giants is whether LaMonte Wade Jr plays or not. Fortunately, we can draft him anyways and get a swap to someone low owned on the Giants if he is not. For the Nationals, Lane Thomas, Joey Meneses, Stone Garrett, and Keibert Ruiz are my favorite targets here. But you should probably include the 7-9 spots of that lineup once it comes out.

I won’t be taking any Pirates tonight. It was nice to see them leave the Guardians series with one win, but Shohei Ohtani is very likely to overpower this lineup tonight. On the flip side, I’m not including any Angels outside of Ohtani. Johan Oviedo is better than people give him credit for as I’ve alluded to on previous posts. I won’t be drafting him as a SP today, but I’ll get “exposure” to him via the Angels fade.

I am struggling with Mets @ Red Sox. I love Kodai Senga, and Kutter Crawford might be good? But they’re playing in Fenway with the 2nd best park factor for hitters, and I’m not sure I trust them to overcome that tonight with these two lineups on paper. Pete Alonso (again per Tuma, shoutout to the goat) might still be hurt. He’s certainly playing like it, and with Starling Marte on the IL as well this team just isn’t that threatening right now. I’ll stack them once or twice and hope I get lucky if they get it together for tonight’s slate.

That is where I will call it today. I still have drafts to complete and as I was alluding to earlier, I find myself having much more success when I put in high volume and get exposure to more teams as opposed to playing less and condensing my player pool. That’s just anecdotal note from myself and not advice for you, because everyone is different. Good luck today!

Nez


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