Structured ramblings packaged as strategy. Some call it a “Blog”
Good morning! Welcome to the first NFL edition of Nez Takes dot com. This post specifically will be a bit of a Primer part two, along with some preliminary thoughts on the week based on the information we have to date. I’d also like to level set what to expect from these posts moving forward, since this is the grand opening of me writing thoughts on upcoming NFL weeks. Let’s start with that.
I anticipate one post a week, delivered every Friday or Saturday. I’ll rarely spend time covering the past games and strictly focus on what’s to come, which will inevitably have some notes about weeks prior, but I’ll do my best to skip the recaps and keep forward focused. The reasons being: the time it takes to write up games (well) and the resources that exist already that give you this information much better than I ever could. If you’re looking for a resource to give you a synopsis of games past with fantasy relevant context, look no further than Stealing Signals. Ben Gretch does an excellent job of covering what you need to know about the games along with his own analysis. Additionally, Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report is available on Fantasy Life. Highly recommend both of these resources.
Post-Intro
Looking ahead now, let’s talk Week 2.
The great thing about Battle Royale’s is that the market/environment its played in is incredibly reactive. In classic DFS, the salaries that big brother gives you plays a heavy hand in how opponents play the game, along with past results of course. BRs create the opportunity to take advantage of this type of thinking/drafting and rewards those who are able to weigh these factors to their advantage, as the market is set by your opponents in real time.
We saw this effect take place with TE ADPs. Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews both returned to practice in limited fashions and have very appealing game environments, and have since been ruled active with a pretty green icon on the app. We received discounts on both of these players this week, which has made them some of my highest owned players period this week, let alone at their position.
9/16
Favorite Teams
- Bills
- 49ers
- Lions
- Bengals
- Ravens
- Chiefs
- Chargers
- Titans
Player Preferences
| QB | RB | WR | TE | |||
| Josh Allen | Christian McCaffrey | Stefon Diggs | Travis Kelce | |||
| Patrick Mahomes | Saquon Barkley | Ja’Marr Chase | Mark Andrews | |||
| Lamar Jackson | Derrick Henry | Amon-Ra St. Brown | Darren Waller | |||
| Joe Burrow | Josh Jacobs | Davante Adams | George Kittle | |||
| Justin Herbert | Travis Etienne | Calvin Ridely | Evan Engram | |||
| Trevor Lawrence | Tony Pollard | Keenan Allen | Sam LaPorta | |||
| Justin Fields | Bijan Robinson | Deebo Samuel | Dalton Kincaid | |||
| Anthony Richardson | Jahmyr Gibbs | Michael Pittman | Tyler Higbee | |||
| Geno Smith | James Cook | CeeDee Lamb | Kyle Pitts | |||
| Daniel Jones | Isiah Pacheco | Tee Higgins | Cole Kmet | |||
| David Montgomery | DK Metcalf | |||||
| Joe Mixon | Brandon Aiyuk | |||||
| Joshua Kelley | Mike Evans | |||||
| Breece Hall | Garrett Wilson | |||||
| Kenneth Walker III | Christian Kirk | |||||
| Mike Williams | ||||||
| Gabe Davis | ||||||
| Zay Flowers | ||||||
| Tyler Lockett | ||||||
| Zay Jones | ||||||
| Chris Godwin | ||||||
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | ||||||
| Drake London |
There aren’t many egregious priced players this week in BRs. I’m constructing most of my drafts around 3 pieces of a single game, whether thats 2+1 run back or a 3 man stack. There are a handful of games this week in which I’m avoiding taking more than one player from. But some players I do have interest in as one-offs who are in “gross” spots:
- Texans
- Dameon Pierce
- Nico Collins
- Colts
- Anthony Richardson
- Michael Pittman
- Zack Moss
- Broncos
- Javonte Williams
- Jerry Jeudy
- Commanders
- Brian Robinson Jr
- Rams
- Puka Nacua
- Tyler Higbee
- Cardinals
- James Conner
- Bears
- Justin Fields
- DJ Moore
- Cole Kmet
- Bucs
- Mike Evans
- Chris Godwin
- Rachaad White
Almost all the players listed above will be sub 5% drafted across the entire contest. That equates to being roughly 1% owned cumulatively vs 16% for the top 20 in ADP. In my opinion, the way to get unique this week as at the Running Back position. We have salary DFS chalk plays in our game who are in line for a metric shit-ton of work that go undrafted more often than not. Let’s talk about one of those players: AJ Dillon.
This statmuse graphic is pretty meaningless for our discussion, but it’s fairly obvious that AJD is simply an OK player, nothing more. And this matchup against what I find to be a very underrated Falcons defense, that features an offense that will kill the clock slowly and painfully when they have the ball, bodes very poorly for the Packers as a whole, and in our case AJD. The low ownership is very appealing, however. Nobody at RB besides CMC + Saquon have “great” spots, so it’s not inconceivable Dillon provides you with a top 5 score at the position, but by how many points to matter given his low-end outcomes? That’s the question. I have some shares, but not many.
The real point of that isn’t necessarily about AJ Dillon as a play, but moreso thinking through the type of plays we should be seeking out in BRs. Let me introduce to the real grossest play of today – Khalil Herbert.
We saw the Bears get embarrassed last week against the Packers. The offense was atrocious, no way of sugar coating that performance. I’m not ready to completely write off Fields and company just because of that, and now they go into Tampa Bay against a defense that certainly isn’t bad, but I feel confident is not as good as the Packers.
We received word this morning that D’Onta Foreman is a healthy scratch. This is equally beneficial to Herbert and Roschon Johnson, but I’m anticipating a slight bump to Herbert’s workload this week. The passing game work is encouraging, and I’m expecting Herbert to remain involved there moving forward. He’s being overlooked completely in the main slate, and I want to make the bet that he breaks off a long run this week and/or finds the end zone against a not good Tampa Bay team.
I’d like to wrap this up before kickoff, so let me end this by saying – I am not feeling the Seahawks very much today. I really find this Detroit Lions team to be much, much different than last seasons. The defense early looks to be much improved, and they will run the air out of the ball if and when they possess a lead. The Seahawks are down two offensive lineman this week, and I worry about their ability to have any sort of flow offensively. I’m taking a lot of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in response to this. I’m not anticipating a shootout here, though the pieces in this game aren’t necessarily “chalk” either.
Best of luck this week. I appreciate you if you’re here, and I vow to make these posts more coherent in future weeks when I feel I have a better grasp on who these teams really are and how I think these games will play out. Sometimes I think I need a journal and not a blog. Maybe journal then blog in the future? I’ll figure it out. Thanks for reading.
Nez
Take Sheet 