Good morning! It’s Week Three, and we already know everything there is to know about these teams for the rest of the season. We are ready for no more surprises and everything to happen exactly how we presume. (He said with a wry smile on his face). I’m just tricking you.
Let’s start with last week. I was fortunate to finish first in the Dawg Bowl Qualifier, in a week where the entry fee was $50 and the fill rate finished at 68%. I had four entries total. I couldn’t be happier to be heading to Miami in December. I’ll be attempting to acquire another seat at the tournament until these qualifiers are finished, because it was quite fun to win that seat, and having more than one team in this contest would be an enormous advantage over the field. Most everyone I follow in this space had a great week last week it seemed, which is awesome. It’s much more fun to win with others than alone. My personal takeaway from last week is that while I was right on my draft choices, I need to be sure to not become take-locked and overconfident moving forward. The range of outcomes don’t all of a sudden become narrower because I built a winning lineup. And on the flip side, losing money doesn’t mean you are clueless and that you must resort to simply “guessing”.
Week 3 Stuff
Let’s start talking Week 3. I’m about 50 drafts in (DBQ + Main Slate combined) and the landscape continues to change as injury reports shift and weather forecasts become clearer. The latter seemingly having a strong effect on the east coast games, with many of these point totals dropping as we approach Sunday. Here’s what Kevin Roth thinks about these games as of this post going live.
I needed the L*rd to give me a sign to not play the Jets/Patriots game this week, and sure enough he gave me one. Blessed.
It’s going to be hard to not let these weather forecasts get into your head. It’s going to be very hard. But I urge you to not care. Please, do not care.
You are much better off ignoring the weather FUD. Unless the storm brings sustained winds over 20 MPH, in which case it’s time to pay attention and slam the panic button on passing games.
As far as the game environments are concerned, this slate has more lopsided matchups than I can remember one slate having in a while. Chiefs*, Cowboys, Bills, Jaguars*, Dolphins*, Seahawks*, and Ravens* are all favored by at least 6.5 points. (* = home team). We also have a monster total of 53.5 with Chargers @ Vikings that feels impossible to disappoint. Neither of these teams like to win convincingly. It will be exciting to see which team loses this game in what should be an exciting shootout.
Favorite Teams
- Vikings
- Chargers
- Chiefs
- Cowboys
- Ravens
- Jaguars
- Dolphins
- Bills
- Seahawks
| QB | RB | WR | TE | |||
| Patrick Mahomes | Tony Pollard | Justin Jefferson | Travis Kelce | |||
| Josh Allen | Bijan Robinson | Tyreek Hill | Mark Andrews | |||
| Justin Herbert | Kenneth Walker III | CeeDee Lamb | TJ Hockenson | |||
| Kirk Cousins | Travis Etienne | Keenan Allen | Evan Engram | |||
| Lamar Jackson | Raheem Mostert | Calvin Ridley | Sam LaPorta | |||
| Justin Fields | Jahmyr Gibbs | Mike Williams | Dalton Kincaid | |||
| Tua Tagovailoa | Derrick Henry | Stefon Diggs | Zach Ertz | |||
| Dak Prescott | Joshua Kelley | Amon-Ra St Brown | Hunter Henry | |||
| Trevor Lawrence | Brian Robinson Jr. | Jordan Addison | Cole Kmet | |||
| Jared Goff | James Cook | Chris Olave | Jake Ferguson | |||
| Russell Wilson | Zack Moss | Tyler Lockett | David Njoku | |||
| Isiah Pacheco | DK Metcalf | Dalton Schultz | ||||
| Gus Edwards | Nico Collins | Durham Smythe | ||||
| Alexander Mattison | Michael Pittman | Dawson Knox | ||||
| Jerick McKinnon | Amari Cooper | |||||
| Javonte Williams | Zay Flowers | |||||
| Miles Sanders | DJ Moore | |||||
| Gabe Davis | ||||||
| Christian Kirk | ||||||
| Jerry Jeudy | ||||||
| Drake London | ||||||
| Christian Watson | ||||||
| Terry McLaurin | ||||||
| Courtland Sutton | ||||||
| Jahan Dotson | ||||||
| K.J. Osborn | ||||||
| Skyy Moore | ||||||
| Justin Watson | ||||||
| Rashod Bateman |
Gross Plays
This week is likely to feature at least one upset. Trying to play for one in a BR lineup can lead to some profits. Here are some scenarios I’m playing for
Commanders defeat Bills
- Sam Howell + Terry McLaurin/Jahan Dotson + Brian Robinson Jr.
Bears compete with Chiefs
- Justin Fields + Cole Kmet/DJ Moore/Darnell Mooney, optional + Khalil Herbert
Tight Ends fail
- Tua Tagovailoa + Durham Smythe
- Kyle Pitts + Jahmyr Gibbs/Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Josh Allen + Dalton Kincaid/Dawson Knox
- Dak Prescot + Jake Ferguson
Vikings vs Chargers gets weird
- Alexander Mattison + Gerald Everett/Joshua Palmer
- Joshua Kelley + Alexander Mattison/KJ Osborn
Deshaun Watson has a good game
- Watson + Njoku/Elijah Moore/Amari Cooper/Jerome Ford
Best of luck to everyone today. Let’s have a profitable week, and remember to go easy on yourself if things don’t go your way.
Nez
Take Sheet 