Good morning!
Man it feels great to say that again. Happy Opening Day folks, you’ve earned it. We’ve made it to another season of God’s Game, as we usher in a brand new era of Underdog Fantasy with our good friends Neumy + Hope at the wheel and increased prize pools thanks to the insane growth the platform has seen in just one calendar year.
As a precursor for the 2024 season, I would like these posts to not necessarily serve as spoon-fed answers to the slate, but as commentary with a layout of my initial takes. I try to use as little outside information as possible (i.e. projections) and provide an unfiltered look at each game. This was the formula last year, so all that to say not much will be changing!
MLB dailies are very fun to play. They’re also challenging. It makes sense – there are 9 eligible players to be drafted for every team on the slate, and the slates are often filled with ten or more games. This can often manifest itself in some frustrating ways. Say for a example, a player you never drafted goes off because you couldn’t fit him into your limited number of drafts. It can be easy for someone to begin to question themselves throughout a season when you are losing to teams like this. Were these lineups -EV over a large sample? Did it even matter?
This season, with the max number of entries on a given slate (which was often below 100 last season) likely being over 150+, it’s a reality we’ll be facing more often (hard to get to lineups taking first place). I will be utilizing the Plane feature a fair amount this season while queueing up onslaught builds for these unlikely scenarios. This helps me increase my volume by saving me time and puts me in a position to capitalize on an unlikely scenario.
Macro Takes
My macro strategy for each slate can be broken down into three categories. Exposures, Portfolio Management, Roster Construction.
Exposures and portfolio management are very much tied together. Both are risk tolerance dependent, but given the size of the prize pools (which are nothing to sneeze at), an exploitative stance every single slate is not something I would suggest nor do I think is profitable long term as long as the prize pools are what they are. Unless your goal is to win 50% of a given prize pool (which shockingly I would call unrealistic), then you should want to have a portfolio that has exposure to most of the teams on a slate. Please note that this is me speaking from my own playstyle, you are welcome to do whatever you’d like when you play.
What I am trying to accomplish when drafting a portfolio in baseball
- Identify what stacks are popular
- Identify my favorite plays
- Construct smartly
- Cast a wide net
- Stack, stack stack
Roster Constructure
One of the most frequently asked questions I’ve gotten is “what is the best way to stack for baseball?” The truth is that there isn’t a build that is head and shoulders better than the rest. If I could rank constructions (number of teammates, not including pitcher):
- 3+2
- 4+1
- 3+1+1
- 2+2+1
- 5+P
- 2+1+1+1
Sometimes a slate winner contains no stacks at all. This is difficult to repeat night to night. You should save a few entries for these type of builds, but I’m not dedicating a significant portion of my drafts to those type of builds at all.
Now, let’s get to the good stuff. I’ve got drafts to finish!
Slate Breakdown
Pirates (Mitch Keller, RHP) @ Marlins (Jesus Luzardo, LHP)
Tigers (Tarik Skubal, LHP) @ White Sox (Garrett Crochet, LHP)
Twins (Pablo Lopez, RHP) @ Royals (Cole Ragans, LHP)
Cardinals (Miles Mikolas, RHP) @ Dodgers (Tyler Glasnow, RHP)
Giants (Logan Webb, RHP) @ Padres (Yu Darvish, RHP)
Nationals (Josiah Gray, RHP) @ Reds (Frankie Montas, RHP)
Blue Jays (Jose Berrios, RHP) @ Rays (Zach Eflin, RHP)
Yankees (Nestor Cortes, LHP) @ Astros (Framber Valdez, LHP)
Cubs (Justin Steele, LHP) @ Rangers (Nathan Eovaldi, RHP)
Rockies (Kyle Freeland, LHP) @ D-backs (Zac Gallen, RHP)
Guardians (Shane Bieber, RHP) @ Athletics (Alex Wood, LHP)
Red Sox (Brayan Bello, RHP) @ Mariners (Luis Castillo, LHP)
Pitching Preferences
- Zac Gallen
- Tarik Skubal
- Tyler Glasnow
- Luis Castillo
- Pablo Lopez
- Mitch Keller
- Shane Bieber
- Logan Webb
- Cole Ragans
- Jesus Luzardo
Favorite Teams
- Dodgers
- D-backs
- Astros
- Tigers
- Cubs
- Rangers
- Reds
- Nationals
Opening day is always tricky to navigate. It’s basically a Spring Training game except the games matter. It’s not uncommon to see some rust needing knocked off and see unusual results on the field. So while there are some obvious stacks to prioritize today, we should be open to the range of outcomes that these plays are outscored, which is likelier than we care to admit.
Because the max number of entries today in the main contest is 150, I will be leaning into uniqueness angle today quite a bit. We talk (just a little bit) about scrolling down in these Battle Royales. On a day like today, it’s never made more sense. Very few people will want to stay off of the plays I’ve listed above. We need to use our imaginations to get some grosser plays that can set us up for success!
As I mentioned above in regards to roster construction, you can do this in a number of ways. You can get exposure to these lesser drafted players in the form of a one-off, or really maximize your leverage by stacking 3 or more players from a rarely drafted team, such as the Giants or Athletics today. This contrarian style of drafting can prove to be even stronger when the opposing pitcher is a top three option on the slate that nobody is wanting to stack against. Again, we shouldn’t be using all of our bullets on these unlikely scenarios, but with so much entries available to us, it doesn’t make sense not to throw a few of these in the porfolio.
It’s difficult at this stage to have too many micro takes without seeing what these players look like in 2024. But one thing that is for certain is the Rockies are going to be a target for us every single slate. There’s not one pitcher worth being afraid of in their rotation, home or away. It’s honestly irresponsible what they’ve done in Colorado. I know that no free agent wants to pitch in the Rocky Mountains, but wow. There’s not one pitcher that projects for more than 110 strikeouts nor is there one that projects for an ERA less than 5. We will be looking their way a lot this season.
Of course, I’ll also be looking to get to my Pirates this season as well, early and often. While I have real concerns over their rotation, their starting lineup is competent and can hold their own. Better suited against right handed pitching, players like Henry Davis, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Andrew McCutchen will be a problem for lefties. I’ve talked on camera many times about the changes Ke’Bryan Hayes has made to his fly ball rate and his pull rate last season, and these changes held up throughout Spring Training. His breakout is coming, and I will have front row seats.
One of the “sneakier” stacks I would try to get to today is the Oakland Athletics. Shane Bieber is the SP1 on Underdog, and he’s coming off a down year. The Athletics are basement dwellers and should be a bottom three team on the season, but that doesn’t mean they are worthless. In a matchup I deem to be “fine”, a Gelof/Noda/Rooker stack will be drafted at a near non-existent clip and something I wouldn’t be shocked to see get home today.
Good luck with all of your drafts leading up to first pitch. If you have any questions or opinions please find me on Twitter dot com. My DMs are open! Oh, and Let’s Go Bucs baby.
Nez
Take Sheet 