Tigers (Reese Olson, RHP) @ Mets (Sean Manaea, LHP)
Blue Jays (Bowden Francis, RHP) @ Astros (Ronel Blanco, RHP)
Red Sox (Tanner Houck, RHP) @ Athletics (Joe Boyle, RHP)
Guardians (Triston McKenzie, RHP) @ Mariners (Emerson Hancock, RHP)
Cardinals (Kyle Gibson, RHP) @ Padres (Matt Waldron, RHP)
Yankees (Luis Gil, RHP) @ D-backs (Ryne Nelson, RHP)
Giants (Keaton Winn, RHP) @ Dodgers (James Paxton, LHP)

No weather to report for the main slate, play ball!

Good morning! I hope you had a good weekend and a nice Easter if you celebrated. The Easter bunny gave me a Pirates sweep in my basket, how thoughtful. My boys are buzzing and are headed to DC for a three game series with a real shot at starting 7-0 on the season, although Vegas has them as underdogs today facing MacKenzie Gore. Not on the main slate though, so nothing for us to dwell on. Good luck to the Nats this series!

Onto today’s main slate. We have more right handed pitchers than left handed for once, and a lot of guys with very little major league starting experience or none at all. Should be fun!

Favorite Teams

1. Yankees
2. Astros
3. Dodgers
4. D-backs
5. Padres
6. Red Sox

Pitching Preferences

1. Triston McKenzie
2. Tanner Houck
3. James Paxton
4. Sean Manaea
5. Reese Olson
6. Emerson Hancock

As I stated, lots of unfamiliar faces for us today. Some rookies and some others with very little experience at the major league level. Let’s start with Luis Gil for the Yankees, who is making his first start since 2022 after recovering from Tommy John Surgery. He made six starts in 2021 as a 23 year old and managed a 3.07 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP. If it weren’t for Gerrit Cole’s elbow, he wouldn’t even be in the rotation. He did have a nice spring though, and flirts with triple digits with the heater and pairs it with a CH + SL. My assessment is that he’s a boom or bust guy today who can either spin himself a solid number of Ks in 5-6 innings or get pulled before his 9th out due to control issues. The D-backs are off to a white hot start (playing Colorado will do that) and have a great 1 through 6 in the order. In teams where I don’t have any D-backs, I could understand taking a flier on Gil. I don’t think the upside is there to truly separate, but that’s a rare feat these days anyhow.

Bowden Francis is a 27 year old right hander for Toronto that threw 36.1 IP out of the pen last season for the big league club. In his minor league starts he was just ok, though his 2023 AAA numbers were a career best for him as a starter that seemed to carry over into his relief duties. He might be good, he’s got a 94 MPH fastball that he pairs with a 74 MPH curve, which is a gulf of difference in velocity that you typically don’t see from pitchers. Some call this a perk, I think this could be to his detriment. The reason being is that the velocity gives the shape of his curve a long loopy look out of the hand, and by the 2nd time through an order hitters may pick this up quickly as opposed to him only seeing a handful of at bats as a reliever. Not to mention he’s in Houston taking on the Astros here, a tall task for anyone. I’m betting against the kid today but wish him well.

Joe Boyle is a 6’7″ 24 year old right hander for the A’s that throws gas. He pairs with a slider and a curve, but the fastball was what he leaned on heavily in 2023. He showed good results, but clearly struggled with command from what I saw from him. If he can control the slider well as an out pitch as opposed to relying on the heater get by guys, he can be an actual useful starter for Oakland. The Red Sox aren’t juggernauts, but Casas and Devers will be a problem from Boyle. I’m mixing in some Red Sox bats today, but I think Boyle is fine to mix in to your SP portfolio if you’re not stacking Sox.

Matt Waldron made 6 starts and 2 relief appearances for the Padres last season, and was fine but not great. He’s not a very formidable pitcher, but the Cardinals look lost once again. I’m going to have a handful of Cardinals stacks as the flood gates could soon open for them, but none of these bats are off to a good start. That said, I’ll build some stacks around Nolan Gorman until it finally pays off.

Keaton Winn actually looks intriguing as a prospect. He’s got a 70 grade splitter per Fangraphs, and pairs this with a 96 MPH fastball. That’s a winning formula if he can command them, and he will have to because they are essentially all he throws. It’s a really tough spot to have to face the Dodgers in LA, and I’m strongly betting against him, but we will keep a close on Keaton Winn moving forward, because I’m intrigued by the profile.

There are plenty of ways to attack today’s slate given all of this information. Seven games is a really nice size for a slate as it allows us to easily get to some of the “bad” plays today once bases are covered elsewhere. I like Tanner Houck today, but I’m always building out a few A’s lineups in my portfolio because they are always low owned.

I will most likely be lightest exposed to the Cleveland/Seattle game. I like both of these pitchers today in a good park against two of the weaker offenses on the slate. Hancock has made three starts for the M’s in his career and held a 4.50 ERA. He was the 6th overall pick in the 2020 draft and mostly threw a fastball/slider/changeup. Given the factors of the opponent + park plus pedigree as a prospect, I’m liking him as a low owned option today in the event the chalk starters fail.

Best of luck today! I hope you are enjoying these posts. If you have any suggestions please feel free to let me know. See you tomorrow.

Nez