Brewers (Freddy Peralta, RHP) @ Orioles (Tyler Wells, RHP)
Rockies (Ryan Feltner, RHP) @ Blue Jays (Kevin Gausman, RHP)
Angels (Reid Detmers, LHP) @ Red Sox (Tanner Houck, RHP)
Royals (Michael Wacha, RHP) @ Mets (Luis Severino, RHP)
Braves (Max Fried, LHP) @ Marlins (Trevor Rogers, LHP)
Yankees (Clarke Schmidt, RHP) @ Guardians (Carlos Carrasco, RHP)
Reds (Andrew Abbott, LHP) @ White Sox (Chris Flexen, RHP)
Nationals (Jake Irvin, RHP) @ Athletics (Paul Blackburn, RHP)
Rangers (Dane Dunning, RHP) @ Astros (JP France, RHP)
Cubs (Jordan Wicks, LHP) @ Mariners (Bryce Miller, RHP)
Cardinals (Steven Matz, LHP) @ D-backs (Brandon Pfaadt, RHP)
Padres (Michael King, RHP) @ Dodgers (Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP)
Good morning! It is finally Friday, and we’ve got ourselves a twelve game slate. Not my preference, but a fun change of pace after drafting a two game slate yesterday. My (our?) Pirates didn’t get the job done against the Phillies last night, but Jared Jones continued to look really good. Ranger Suarez was impressive and will be a key component to the Phillies success this season in that rotation. The Pirates have been hitting lefties well so far, so I left this game with a changed perception on Ranger.
Right now it seems like a lot of teams are still waking up from the winter. We’ll be going back to the well on some of these teams that haven’t had great starts but continue to be put in positions to succeed. Spoiler: I’m not drafting any Yankees or Guardians today. You can certainly take the risk a couple times because it’s a deep slate with an infinite number of swap options, but I’m not ranking them here. Thanks.
Favorite Teams
- Braves
- D-backs
- Dodgers
- Rangers
- Reds
- Brewers
- Blue Jays
- Astros
- Orioles
- Angels
- Cubs
- Royals
Pitching Preferences
- Kevin Gausman
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto
- Freddy Peralta
- Reid Detmers
- Tanner Houck
- Michael Wacha
- Max Fried
- Paul Blackburn
This is a pretty tough slate to dissect. Full transparency – I write these posts as I’m analyzing the slate in real time, and this took me some time to find the spots I want to attack. With so many good hitting conditions, it neutralizes some of the better pitchers and amplifies otherwise “just fine” offenses. Let’s start at SP for a moment.
Truth be told, SP doesn’t really matter. It’s just the truth. Tyler Glasnow puts up 26 points the other night, and he didn’t make my winning lineup (thank you, Chris Bassitt). It’s just not something we should spend a ton of effort trying to figure out slate to slate. Sometimes I will have an offensive target listed and the opposing pitcher also listed here. There’s a wide range of outcomes when say, Fenway Park also has strong winds. It doesn’t guarantee Houck will get crushed by the sheer manliness of Michael Nelson Trout tonight, but if he is giving up fly balls tonight, there’s a chance he’s in trouble. But he’s also a good pitcher! With one of the better upside cases tonight. So we take our chances when we don’t have Angels in our lineups. I used to care a lot about not getting SP wrong, but now I am changed and probably too jaded. All this to say that if you are like I used to be, just know it really doesn’t matter (until it does).
The Rangers + Astros are both stumbling out of the gates right now. Their bats will wake up sooner or later, and if you want to just fade the cold offense, I can’t necessarily recommend that. But be my guest, just do it in my lobbies please.
I’m very interested in the Reds against Chris Flexen with winds out to dead center. I’m treating this like its a GABP game, which is maybe double counting. But this offense is really good, and the conditions + Chris Flexen make me want to be aggressive on this Reds team.
I of course have the Braves ranked highly against a lefty today in Trevor Rogers, former late round darling. It’s definitely worth talking about this start from Ronald Acuna Jr. though. (Small sample alert).
I think we can confidently say Acuna will be fine. But this is a confounding start from the consensus 1.01 who we all expected regression for yet still expected a monster season from. I’m once again not telling you to fade a known great player. The field might be less likely to take him top three, however, and a spot against Trevor Rogers is not the time to do so.
Speaking of slow starts, one that might be under the radar is Corey Seager. I think his slow start tells somewhat of a different story.
This looks better than Acuna’s, but still notable that both of these guys do not have a barrel yet this season! Pretty wild. One thing to note about Seager though is he is slashing .311/.392/.400 during this “slow” open. lol, lmao. What’s going to happen with the Rangers and Seager when he starts to barrel the baseball again? Another 1.000 OPS season loading, certainly. Keep the faith with Seager, and Acuna.
Good luck tonight! Here’s a pick’em I have in play for today if you feel like tailing.
Take Sheet 