Athletics (Ross Stripling, RHP) @ Orioles (Corbin Burnes, RHP)
Dodgers (Gavin Stone, RHP) @ Blue Jays (Chris Bassitt, RHP)
Cardinals (Miles Mikolas, RHP) @ Mets (Jose Butto, RHP)
Cubs (Shota Imanaga, LHP) @ Red Sox (Kutter Crawford, RHP)
Nationals (Trevor Williams, RHP) @ Marlins (Jesus Luzardo, LHP)
Guardians (Logan Allen, LHP) @ Braves (Chris Sale, LHP)
Rays (Zach Eflin, RHP) @ White Sox (Chris Flexen, RHP)
Reds (Graham Ashcraft, RHP) @ Rangers (Nathan Eovaldi, RHP)
Yankees (Luis Gil, RHP) @ Brewers (Colin Rea, RHP)
Twins (Bailey Ober, RHP) @ Angels (Patrick Sandoval, LHP)
D-backs (Zac Gallen, RHP) @ Mariners (Emerson Hancock, RHP)
Phillies (Aaron Nola, RHP) @ Padres (Joe Musgrove, RHP)
Pirates (Quinn Priester, RHP) @ Giants (Kyle Harrison, LHP)

Good morning! Happy Friday folks, we’ve got a 13 game slate to get into and there’s very little time to waste considering the contests that exist for us to draft today. We haven’t had many slates as large as this one is today and that will make it very advantageous for us to go way off the board for picks that will not sacrifice much projection. Some might call it scrolling the “F” down. We try not to swear here.

Favorite Teams

1. Orioles
2. Yankees
3. Braves
4. Mets
5. Dodgers
6. Giants
7. Rangers
8. D-backs

Pitching Preferences

1. Zac Gallen
2. Zach Eflin
3. Corbin Burnes
4. Aaron Nola
5. Shota Imanaga
6. Luis Gil
7. Jose Butto
8. Kutter Crawford

A’s @ O’s
Orioles vs. a RHP will always be something I target. Ross Stripling is here to eat innings for the A’s and I’m not certain how many he will be able to consume today against the onslaught of left handed bats. They’re one of the chalk spots today and I’m gobbling it up. (pause)

Dodgers @ Blue Jays
A weird one here, as most Blue Jays games are. Gavin Stone isn’t close to being an ace, but there’s not many matchups for the Blue Jays that I see and get excited over, so not overly interested in their bats today but not full fading. The Dodgers are the Dodgers, so no need to “x” them out today just because they face Chris Bassitt, who rules. Given the size of the slate you can probably giga-stack the Dodgers at will today, so that will be worth having some exposure to.

Cardinals @ Mets
Trying a new format by the way, hope you guys find some value in this. These are obviously not overly deep dives but helps keep me focused and hopefully provides value to you as a reader. If I have some things to rant on I will still do so. Thanks!
I will never respect Miles Mikolas. Give me the Mets today who will have nuclear slates in the near future. I will have some DJ Stewart and Brett Baty teams today.
The Mets have Jose Butto on the mound, whose game I was unfamiliar with. He’s a real life starting pitching though, with a deep arsenal and a killer fast ball. Unfortunately his control isn’t great and the fastball can also be hit hard when contact does get made. The Cardinals are sluggish right now and I think Butto represents a decent ceiling today pitching in Queens. I will definitely be mixing him in the 6th.

Nationals @ Marlins
This is a middest mid-off of all time. Luzardo has been dreadful to start the year, but this is a damn good spot to take him. If you want to go Jazz, Arraez, Josh Bell today I think that’s pretty sneaky. Otherwise I would like to move on to the next game if that’s alright.
Nice, Luzardo scratched as I’m writing these games up. CJ Abrams might be draftable now.

Cubs @ Red Sox
Generally very excited about games in Fenway. But this Red Sox team, man. Haven’t seen a team this decimated by injuries in recent memory. Hard to not think Imanaga carves them up today, but I’ll mix in some Tyler O’Neill one-offs here and there still. Maybe even some stacks, just because it’s Fenway and Imanaga’s scouting report coming into the league was that he gives up fly balls in addition to his awesome strikeout stuff. I’m talking myself into the Red Sox as I write this.
Kutter Crawford has been disgusting to start the year. The Cubs are in the midst of a slump, specifically Morel. I don’t really want to draft any of these guys today, but it’s Fenway and the Cubs have a lot of RHH, so I will never say never, but I’m betting against this game giving us slate winning scores.

Guardians @ Braves
Logan Allen on the mound for Cleveland, not a bad pitcher but lefties on the mound is good for Atlanta. The Braves speak for themselves today, we like them.
The Guardians, very very quietly imo, are the best team against left handed pitching to start the year. This is impressive considering their offensive leaderboard looks like this –

Shoutout Josh Naylor. Jose Ramirez is heating up as well. Fun team!

Rays @ White Sox
Bit of rain here today which stinks. We don’t care about the White Sox at all today (evergreen). Eflin is a great option if the game can play 7 innings uninterrupted. The Rays bats are in a weird spot right now because Randy Arozarena is just beyond lost right now. Striking out 29% of the time, slugging in the .260’s, it’s not good. His BABIP is .194, so at least he’s getting sort of unlucky. There will be brighter days for him, but nearly impossible to trust him right now. But you know who we can trust? Isaac Paredes. He’s awesome, and putting up a 161 wRC+ right now. Not sure today is the day to make a conviction on him, but he’s good, despite what some projections might think.

Reds @ Rangers
I might need to go down to Arlington this weekend to check out Elly. There’s not a more exciting player in baseball right now. The Reds face Nathan Eovaldi though, who is good and having a nice start to the year. The Reds can still explode against anyone, so will be smart to mix them in today.
The Rangers are much better against RHP than LHP, but Ashcraft doesn’t scare me a ton. I’ll have a decent mix of Rangers today, with Garcia leading the charge in exposures for me.

Yankees @ Brewers
Is Luis Gil a star? Many are asking. He’s racking up Ks and whiffs with a FF/CH/SL mix and it appears to be a successful formula for him. Milwaukee as a team is sporting a 121 wRC+ against RHP, so this is probably a tougher matchup than I’m giving it credit for. I still think his ceiling is real today, and I’ll be chasing the whiffs and Ks until it blows up in my face.
Colin Rea is on the mound for the Brewers, and I’ll take the Yankees side of that battle. Judge is going to be heating up very soon. It’s been a slow start for the former MVP, but he will get there. I’m not worried.

Twins @ Angels
Bailey Ober seems to be fine after a disastrous first start. I’m not fading Trout today, and I’m not really drafting Ober either. Add in left hander Patrick Sandoval for the Angels, who is a fine pitcher, and I’m not very interested in any piece of this game besides Michael Nelson Trout.

D-backs @ Mariners
Happy Zac Gallen day folks. Mariners strike out the most in the league against RHP and it’s one of the best parks for pitchers. Far and away the SP1 today, so watch him only put up single digit fantasy points.
Emerson Hancock is probably not good, but the D-backs are hitting RHP much worse than LHP. Again, the park helps Emerson too. I will be seldom mixing in D-backs today, and fully ignoring the Mariners today outside of maybe one cheap auto-drafted onslaught.

Phillies @ Padres
This one is intriguing to me. I like Aaron Nola and Joe Musgrove in general, and on this slate, but both have implosions in their range of outcomes. Not that I’m saying it’s likely, just that it can always happen. I’m likely not looking to this game for much of anything today other than the pitching if I have to. That said, both teams can get stacked here and there while drafting.

Pirates @ Giants
Quinn Priester takes the mound today for the Pirates. He’s not good folks. Not sure even playing in Oracle can help him today. I’m definitely mixing in the Giants left handed bats today at a healthy clip, along with some Chapman and Soler.
Kyle Harrison is on the other side of this game. The Pirates don’t really do anything well right now, but they do have decent options against LHP. Edward Olivares, Andrew McCutchen, Jared Triolo are what interests me here but there’s no conceivable ceiling here. If they weren’t my team I would not bother looking their way, but alas. Please, start pulling fly balls again Ke’Bryan Hayes. Any day now.

Best of luck today folks. Hope you have a great weekend and enjoy the rest of this insane NFL draft. God bless the Atlanta Falcons.

Marlins (Ryan Weathers, LHP) @ Braves (Bryce Elder, RHP)
Blue Jays (Yusei Kikuchi, LHP) @ Royals (Brady Singer, RHP)
White Sox (Jonathan Cannon, RHP) @ Twins (Chris Paddack, RHP)
D-backs (Brandon Pfaadt, RHP) @ Cardinals (Lance Lynn, RHP)
Padres (Dylan Cease, RHP) @ Rockies (Austin Gomber, LHP)
Orioles (Albert Suarez, RHP) @ Angels (Reid Detmers, LHP)
Mets (Jose Quintana, LHP) @ Giants (Keaton Winn, RHP)

Good Monday morning folks! I hope you all had great weekends. Truthfully, I did not! (Strictly baseball speaking). My Pirates got swept by the Boston Red Sox, who in 2024 are trotting out a lineup full of create-a-players. I guess if you’re going to hit rock bottom, get it out of the way early, right? Assuming this is rock bottom for the Pirates (it assuredly is not). Fandom is such a ridiculous concept. I wish I could remove my emotions from the outcomes of these contests but I simply cannot. I’ve accepted that, and the best I can do at this point is control just how much it affects the mood. Very silly stuff!

But I think this can relate to our fantasy games as well. I’m no stranger to tilting over results. I’ve gotten in my own head for days, even weeks at a time due to poor performance in the fantasy streets. Being able to control these thoughts and emotions is all part of the equation of what makes a good fantasy player though. Letting the losses get into your head and sway your process and decision making will only lead to more resentment. If you find that you’re constantly beating yourself over losses, let me offer some sage advice and simply say “don’t”. Don’t do that, actually. Easy enough! Just kidding, but really though – keep a clear head about this stuff. One thing I like to do is write down (similar to this blog) where my head is at on the slate, and how I would ideally like to approach it and execute. These thoughts can change as drafts go by and I notice the field isn’t doing what I expect, but at least it’s something you can look back on and have an easier time critiquing your own plan as opposed to just calling yourself names. At the end of the day, nothing matters, eat Arby’s, Go Bucs.

Favorite Teams

1. Padres
2. Braves
3. Rockies
4. Orioles
5. Angels
6. Royals
7. Blue Jays

Pitching Preferences

1. Brandon Pfaadt
2. Reid Detmers
3. Dylan Cease
4. Yusei Kikuchi
5. Brady Singer
6. Jose Quintana
7. Lance Lynn
8. Chris Paddack

Well hello, 70 degrees Coors day. There’s just no getting away from the Padres today. There’s no good pitching on the slate, but the right handed heavy Padres against Austin Gomber in Coors is going to be the center of attention in every lobby, and deservingly so. On the bump for the Friars is Dylan Cease too, who is the best pitcher on the slate but not the best play, IMO. That said, we’ve seen time and time again that good pitchers can have success in Coors against the Rockies. Hell, even Cal Quantrill with his Splitter had success against the Mariners in Coors. I’m not advocating reaching for Cease, but I don’t think he’s food by any means. There’s just not any good pitching matchups today that jump out.

The same can be said for the bats today! Everybody looks kind of fine? It seems like a day that I’ll be very, very flat outside of the Padres pieces I can manage to grab in every lobby. The Orioles face Reid Detmers who has been really strong to start the season but have some righty bats I’m very intrigued in. I’ll probably have a lot of Mountcastle and Westburg today.

The Royals have been one of the hottest teams in baseball to start the season. I love Yusei Kikuchi, but they’re targets for us today. Here’s how their best hitters have performed thus far –

Bobby Witt Jr. seems like a fun stance today, and how about a standing O for Salvy Perez? He’s scorching the ball right now. Good for Kansas City.

I haven’t mentioned the Braves, but yes. We like the Braves today. Ryan Weathers has gotten good results this season, but he is a lefty against this Braves team, and it’s tough for any lefty to keep Atlanta off the scoreboard. They’re part of the chalk fest along with San Diego today.

My “sneakiest” team to be on today is the Twins. They have a lot of names that nobody loves to click, and I think their offense is better than what they’ve shown thus far. As a team, they are bottom four in wRC+ as of writing this. Royce Lewis on the IL and Matt Wallner turning into a pumpkin has largely contributed to this, but I’m betting on them getting right today against Jonathan Cannon and the White Sox, who seem to be the remedy for all times finding their groove. If it’s any consolation, the Twins are second to last in BABIP. So maybe there is some regression headed their way.

That’s all I’ve got today, I’m juggling NBA Playoff drafts along with my MLB dailies so my plate is quite full. Best of luck today! Hope to see you at the top.

Nez

Rays (Tyler Alexander, LHP) @ Yankees (Clarke Schmidt, RHP)
Athletics (Joe Boyle, RHP) @ Guardians (Triston McKenzie, RHP)
Rangers (Andrew Heaney, LHP) @ Braves (Chris Sale, LHP)
Orioles (Dean Kremer, RHP) @ Royals (Alec Marsh, RHP)
Tigers (Jack Flaherty, RHP) @ Twins (Joe Ryan, RHP)
Brewers (Freddy Peralta, RHP) @ Cardinals (Kyle Gibson, RHP)
Mariners (Emerson Hancock, RHP) @ Rockies (Dakota Hudson, RHP)
Blue Jays (Yariel Rodriguez, RHP) @ Padres (Matt Waldron, RHP)
Mets (Sean Manaea, LHP) @ Dodgers (Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP)
D-backs (Jordan Montgomery, LHP) @ Giants (Blake Snell, LHP)

Good morning! Sorry for the short absence but it is now Friday and we are back as hell with another full slate! Ten games on the docket today and a lot of options for drafting. Yesterday’s slate was small with only siz games and four person lobbies, but your boy almost took home the Frozen Rope (was only Carlos Carrasco out recorded away). Four person, no ADP lobbies are fun because they present strong exploitative opportunities when most people don’t set ranks and utilize the projections. You can still do exploit lobbies when there is ADP, it’s just not as glaring as when there is none.

Before I begin today let’s just talk about Jared Jones for a brief moment. He has faced 88 batters this season. He’s struck out 32 of them, and he’s walked TWO. He’s generating whiffs on 39% of all pitches thrown, and he’s throwing for strikes 75% of the time. Guys, I’m not really sure what else to say. The Pirates and the rest of the baseball world understands what kind of pitcher this kid is, who turns 23 in August. Having thrown 120 innings in the last two seasons each, Jones is not likely to see much more than 150 innings this season. It’s frustrating, but given the state of SPs today, it makes sense to be overly cautious with him. All I know is that I am never having less than 50% Jones on any given slate he is on moving forward. The stuff is insane.

Favorite Teams

1. Braves
2. Yankees
3. Orioles
4. Mariners
5. Dodgers
6. Rockies
7. Rangers
8. Guardians
9. Royals

Pitching Preferences

1. Joe Ryan
2. Freddy Peralta
3. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
4. Blake Snell
5. Jordan Montgomery
6. Yariel Rodriguez
7. Jack Flaherty
8. Matt Waldron
9. Chris Sale

Time for the slate! The biggest weather concern today is Rockies vs Mariners in Coors, and I’m not sure if the field just hates these offenses or is worried about rain/snow, but both of these offenses are readily available in drafts in a game with the highest total on the slate. Interesting!

Pitching is really flat today. If Montgomery will go undrafted today then I will be drafting him. He’s been ramping up his workload in AAA, so I’m not concerned about him being limited if it’s a 85-90 pitch count. That’s more than enough for him to notch a QS.

Braves facing Andrew Heaney should be very very fun. For Atlanta. Heaney does nothing but give up long balls but he can find his way to 8 Ks in the process. I don’t expect the Braves to put up less than 5 runs today, personally.

The Orioles face a righty today, which means they’re one of the best plays on the slate. I wish they were at home insead of at Kaufmann, but it’s Alec Marsh on the bump and we should be prioritizing Baltimore heavily today.

Today is probably as sneaky as the Yankees might ever be. Left-handed Tyler Alexander is starting for Tampa Bay, and he’s not good. Not only that, but the Rays quietly have a terrible pen. Their relievers are putting up a league worst 6.00 ERA in 81 IP this season, with a 5.13 xFIP. They’re already worth -1.1 WAR. That’s impressive, and we should be loving this spot for the Yankees today. I know I do!

Ok, best of luck everyone! 5k to first today with plenty of side contests as well. Should be fun.

Nez

Yankees (Luis Gil, RHP) @ Blue Jays (Chris Bassitt, RHP)
Pirates (Martin Perez, LHP) @ Mets (Adrian Houser, RHP)
Royals (Seth Lugo, RHP) @ White Sox (Nick Nastrini, RHP)
Padres (Joe Musgrove, RHP) @ Brewers (Joe Ross, RHP)
Braves (Darius Vines, RHP) @ Astros (Spencer Arrighetti, RHP)
Cubs (Ben Brown, RHP) @ D-backs (Merrill Kelly, RHP)
Cardinals (Sonny Gray, RHP) @ Athletics (Ross Stripling, RHP)
Reds (Frankie Montas, RHP) @ Mariners (George Kirby, RHP)
Nationals (Mitchell Parker, LHP) @ Dodgers (Tyler Glasnow, RHP)

Good morning! It’s Monday, again. We have a very, very nice slate of contests to draft on Underdog to help us through the new week. These three here are what I am most excited about.

It’s very fun to have the opportunity to win 4 figures in multiple contests for MLB on Underdog. I’m very pleased with the growth that we’ve seen in this space and having over 40k in prizes available for baseball is awesome. Hopefully you or I can take down one of these!

We’ve got some pitchers on the bump today who I very truthfully don’t know much about (Nick Nastrini, Ben Brown, Mitchell Parker). Here’s the skinniest skinny ever on these guys:

• Mitchell Parker is a lefty making his Major League debut who is not thought of highly as a prospect and does not have good Minor League numbers besides being able to strike a lot of dudes out (a common theme with SPs making their debuts these days). He’s going to get punished today I fear.
• Nick Nastrini was acquired by the White Sox from the Dodgers in exchange for Trayce Thompson. The Dodgers got some run good out of Klay’s brother, but I’d say this trade likely has no winners. Nastrini has a better career outlook than Parker, and also K’d a lot of Minor Leaguers prior to his promotion. The Royals are hot, though I don’t know if they’re the juggernaut they appear to be at this early stage of the season. Nastrini could surprise people given Crochet’s emergence (though he had tangible pedigree).
• Ben Brown was traded to the Cubs from Philadelphia in exchange for David Robertson in 2022. Similar to Nastrini – decent career outlook, struck out a lot of guys in the Minors, didn’t get good results. The D-backs are a really tough customer, but Brown held his own against another NL West opponent in the Padres last week. I’d feel good about stacking D-backs today.

Favorite Teams

1. Dodgers
2. Astros
3. Braves
4. D-backs
5. Pirates
6. Royals

Pitching Preferences

1. Tyler Glasnow
2. George Kirby
3. Sonny Gray
4. Frankie Montas
5. Seth Lugo
6. Merrill Kelly
7. Joe Musgrove
8. Martin Perez
9. Joe Ross

The chalk is chalking today, folks. Dodgers, Astros, Braves, and D-backs are impossible to get away from in drafts. If you plan on drafting another stack, make sure that is your plan and you queue up that stack because I can’t stop seeing good Braves, Dodgers, Astros, and D-backs on the board and selecting them instead.

I of course have the Pirates listed as a team I’m getting to today. I just don’t understand how Vegas has them as dogs to Adrian Houser. I’ve smashed that money line and I am waiting for Pirates alt run lines to come out to hit those as well. Martin Perez has been good for the Pirates so far as well. It’s not a lock that they win, but Vegas will look silly for this. Oneil Cruz + Bryan Reynolds mini’s will be my preferred way to get to them, but I’ll tack on Jack Suwinski and/or Hayes as well. I do not respect Adrian Houser.

Tyler Glasnow is my 1.01 tonight and it isn’t close. This slate is tailor made for him to separate from his peers – not many other options that can really come close to his 75%ile outcome, and he faces the Nationals. I know pitching doesn’t matter, but Tyler Glasnow does. It’s honestly baffling he is still +800 odds for NL Cy Young, because if he gets to 160 innings this season, that’s all him.

Best of luck tonight everyone. Lots of contests to draft, see you in the lobbies!

Nez

https://play.underdogfantasy.com/es-5xge0UJcqq

Brewers (Freddy Peralta, RHP) @ Orioles (Tyler Wells, RHP)
Rockies (Ryan Feltner, RHP) @ Blue Jays (Kevin Gausman, RHP)
Angels (Reid Detmers, LHP) @ Red Sox (Tanner Houck, RHP)
Royals (Michael Wacha, RHP) @ Mets (Luis Severino, RHP)
Braves (Max Fried, LHP) @ Marlins (Trevor Rogers, LHP)
Yankees (Clarke Schmidt, RHP) @ Guardians (Carlos Carrasco, RHP)
Reds (Andrew Abbott, LHP) @ White Sox (Chris Flexen, RHP)
Nationals (Jake Irvin, RHP) @ Athletics (Paul Blackburn, RHP)
Rangers (Dane Dunning, RHP) @ Astros (JP France, RHP)
Cubs (Jordan Wicks, LHP) @ Mariners (Bryce Miller, RHP)
Cardinals (Steven Matz, LHP) @ D-backs (Brandon Pfaadt, RHP)
Padres (Michael King, RHP) @ Dodgers (Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP)

Good morning! It is finally Friday, and we’ve got ourselves a twelve game slate. Not my preference, but a fun change of pace after drafting a two game slate yesterday. My (our?) Pirates didn’t get the job done against the Phillies last night, but Jared Jones continued to look really good. Ranger Suarez was impressive and will be a key component to the Phillies success this season in that rotation. The Pirates have been hitting lefties well so far, so I left this game with a changed perception on Ranger.

Right now it seems like a lot of teams are still waking up from the winter. We’ll be going back to the well on some of these teams that haven’t had great starts but continue to be put in positions to succeed. Spoiler: I’m not drafting any Yankees or Guardians today. You can certainly take the risk a couple times because it’s a deep slate with an infinite number of swap options, but I’m not ranking them here. Thanks.

Favorite Teams

1. Braves
2. D-backs
3. Dodgers
4. Rangers
5. Reds
6. Brewers
7. Blue Jays
8. Astros
9. Orioles
10. Angels
11. Cubs
12. Royals

Pitching Preferences

1. Kevin Gausman
2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
3. Freddy Peralta
4. Reid Detmers
5. Tanner Houck
6. Michael Wacha
7. Max Fried
8. Paul Blackburn

This is a pretty tough slate to dissect. Full transparency – I write these posts as I’m analyzing the slate in real time, and this took me some time to find the spots I want to attack. With so many good hitting conditions, it neutralizes some of the better pitchers and amplifies otherwise “just fine” offenses. Let’s start at SP for a moment.

Truth be told, SP doesn’t really matter. It’s just the truth. Tyler Glasnow puts up 26 points the other night, and he didn’t make my winning lineup (thank you, Chris Bassitt). It’s just not something we should spend a ton of effort trying to figure out slate to slate. Sometimes I will have an offensive target listed and the opposing pitcher also listed here. There’s a wide range of outcomes when say, Fenway Park also has strong winds. It doesn’t guarantee Houck will get crushed by the sheer manliness of Michael Nelson Trout tonight, but if he is giving up fly balls tonight, there’s a chance he’s in trouble. But he’s also a good pitcher! With one of the better upside cases tonight. So we take our chances when we don’t have Angels in our lineups. I used to care a lot about not getting SP wrong, but now I am changed and probably too jaded. All this to say that if you are like I used to be, just know it really doesn’t matter (until it does).

The Rangers + Astros are both stumbling out of the gates right now. Their bats will wake up sooner or later, and if you want to just fade the cold offense, I can’t necessarily recommend that. But be my guest, just do it in my lobbies please.

I’m very interested in the Reds against Chris Flexen with winds out to dead center. I’m treating this like its a GABP game, which is maybe double counting. But this offense is really good, and the conditions + Chris Flexen make me want to be aggressive on this Reds team.

I of course have the Braves ranked highly against a lefty today in Trevor Rogers, former late round darling. It’s definitely worth talking about this start from Ronald Acuna Jr. though. (Small sample alert).

I think we can confidently say Acuna will be fine. But this is a confounding start from the consensus 1.01 who we all expected regression for yet still expected a monster season from. I’m once again not telling you to fade a known great player. The field might be less likely to take him top three, however, and a spot against Trevor Rogers is not the time to do so.

Speaking of slow starts, one that might be under the radar is Corey Seager. I think his slow start tells somewhat of a different story.

This looks better than Acuna’s, but still notable that both of these guys do not have a barrel yet this season! Pretty wild. One thing to note about Seager though is he is slashing .311/.392/.400 during this “slow” open. lol, lmao. What’s going to happen with the Rangers and Seager when he starts to barrel the baseball again? Another 1.000 OPS season loading, certainly. Keep the faith with Seager, and Acuna.

Good luck tonight! Here’s a pick’em I have in play for today if you feel like tailing.

https://play.underdogfantasy.com/es-PXhXZPXFRS

Marlins (Ryan Weathers, LHP) @ Yankees (Marcus Stroman, RHP)
Orioles (Cole Irvin, LHP) @ Red Sox (Kutter Crawford, RHP)
Mets (Jose Quintana, LHP) @ Braves (Allan Winans, RHP)
Astros (Spencer Arrighetti, RHP) @ Royals (Seth Lugo, RHP)
Athletics (Ross Stripling, RHP) @ Rangers (Cody Bradford, LHP)

Good morning! We took down a big one last night, thanks to noted good ball players Ronald Acuña Jr. and Michael Nelson Trout. I was chasing the big Pete Alonso game as well, and the stars just so happened to align for me and I was able to bring it home.

These are the kind of lineups I will almost always gravitate towards when playing MLB dailies. When I have the time to get down better volume than I did yesterday I will use some drafts to get to some less likely winners, but more often than not I will simply draft good players. Like I mentioned in one of my first posts on here this season, it’s easy to get discouraged when you go cold for a stretch and remind yourself to trust the process. I’m still honestly not sure what the best way to draft is for this season given the field is larger and sharper than ever, but I’m grateful to have gotten a W under my belt to help keep me afloat while I navigate this season.

Let’s bring it back to today’s main slate with some lists and musings.

Favorite Teams

1. Braves
2. Yankees
3. Red Sox
4. Astros
5. Rangers
6. Orioles
7. Mets
8. Royals

Pitching Preferences

1. Marcus Stroman
2. Kutter Crawford
3. Cody Bradford
4. Seth Lugo
5. Jose Quintana
6. Ryan Weathers
7. Cole Irvin

Whew buddy, this is a bad pitching slate. Marcus Stroman as of writing this has a 6.4 ADP. While he is by far in the best spot today, I’m not certain this is worth the cost. I’ll likely instead be drafting bats and finding pitching that doesn’t negatively correlate with my stacks, but Stroman is someone I won’t want to full fade either.

We’ve often said on Badge Bros streams that Roth can play his weather predictions too safely. That said, when he lists a game as “Red”, I take notice. Braves and Mets seem to be at real risk of either not playing a full nine or at all. My amateur opinion is they start the game, but finishing it is definitely going to be difficult if the game is stopped at any time. I can’t advise full fading this spot when both teams have blow up potential. Just keep an ear to the streets on what the forecast is looking like closer to lock.

The Red Sox are looking like some of the best value on the board today. I understand some of these names are unappealing on the surface, but they are facing Cole Irvin in Fenway and are available at most points in drafts. Getting an official lineup will make our targets easier to identify, but for now just start mixing these guys into your drafts, I.M.O.

The Rangers have been off to a rather slow start this season, but we are staying the course over here and drafting them at a heavy clip today. Any combination of the top of that order I can get in a lineup today I am happy with. Here’s hoping my lobbies are filled with people fading a team facing the Athletics today, though I wouldn’t call that likely.

Today is a short slate, so truth be told I will be getting to a little bit of everybody, including the Marlins against our SP1 on the slate. Not many people will want to get there and I totally understand it. However, some stacks of Arraez/Jazz/Burger in some combination will be a part of my portfolio in the event that they can get to Stroman. Leverage today that will be strong and won’t take a lot to hit feels good today.

That will wrap things up for me today. Thanks for your support as always and best of luck today!

Nez

Mariners (Luis Castillo, RHP) @ Blue Jays (Jose Berrios, RHP)
Mets (Julio Teheran, RHP) @ Braves (Charlie Morton, RHP)
Dodgers (James Paxton, LHP) @ Twins (Bailey Ober, RHP)
Phillies (Spencer Turnbull, RHP) @ Cardinals (Miles Mikolas, RHP)
Astros (Framber Valdez, LHP) @ Rangers (Andrew Heaney, LHP)
D-backs (Zac Gallen, RHP) @ Rockies (Kyle Freeland, LHP)
Rays (Zach Eflin, RHP) @ Angels (Tyler Anderson, LHP)
Cubs (Javier Assad, RHP) @ Padres (Yu Darvish, RHP)
Nationals (Trevor Williams, RHP) @ Giants (Blake Snell, LHP)

Good morning! Happy Monday folks. Who is ready for the eclipse today? I’m fortunate to be in the “line of totality”, but unfortunately will likely be fighting cloud coverage during that time. We simply hope for the best and enjoy the phenomenon regardless.

It’s been rough sledding since opening day for me, with no sizable wins under my belt and no real sweats to report. Nonetheless, we press on and continue to adapt where needed. We have a fairly loaded slate today with nine games to draft from and plenty of contests up in the Underdog lobbies.

The season itself has gotten off to a bumpy start for the league. Losing so much star power at pitcher this early into the year is going to prompt some serious mirror looking for teams, players, and Rob Manfred (though we know he sees no reflection staring back at him when he looks at a mirror). Many questions need asked – Are the number of injuries increasing year over year? Is a certain style of pitcher getting hurt more than others? Is this preventable? I don’t have the answers, but I have the thought that in this current MLB landscape, these injuries and the frequency of them are unavoidable. I’d like to quote the artist 50 Cent – “Get Rich, or Die Trying”. Pitchers are very much aware of what teams are looking for in free agent pitching. They know it is a stuff+ league and they know one of the easiest ways to boost this statistic is to throw harder. If you know how to game the way in which you are evaluated that then affects how much money you can earn, what other incentives are there for individuals to not take this approach in their game? You simply take the risk as a player, flash good stuff, hope you survive, or hope you maintain the results post surgery if you do not. It’s brutal, but sometimes the bag will be waiting for you at the end of your arbitration years despite all of this (in the case of Tyler Glasnow, at least). It’s a bummer for fans of the game and especially those of the teams that are affected. We will press on.

Favorite Teams

1. D-backs
2. Braves
3. Phillies
4. Dodgers
5. Astros
6. Rockies
7. Rays
8. Giants
9. Padres

Pitching Preferences

1. Blake Snell
2. Yu Darvish
3. Luis Castillo
4. Jose Berrios
5. Zach Eflin
6. Javier Assad
7. Charlie Morton
8. Zac Gallen

Another Coors slate! And it features a loaded offense against Kyle Freeland! So fun. Now I’m no probabilities expert, but it’s no guarantee that the D-backs win or score the most runs on the slate today. However, I’m not sure I can write this post with a straight face and tell you that I’m not going to try to take as many D-backs as possible in all my lobbies today. I think it will make sense to scroll to some unique one-offs or 2x stacks when getting to Arizona, however. 1-7 in their order will be taken every single lobby.

The Dodgers, Braves and Phillies all face some easy pitching today and just so happen to be some of the best offenses in baseball. They’re very easy targets today as well. You can expect 1-5 at a minimum to be taken from LAD, 1-6 from ATL, and 1-3 from PHI. This, if you include Arizona, means roughly 21 hitters will be drafted from these four teams every draft. The Astros are looking like great plays today as well, so lets say three Astros go every draft. That’s now 6 free spots in each lobby that are up in the air every draft. And despite the Rockies facing Zac Gallen, they’re still in Coors. So expect one or two to be drafted from this lineup too.

Where does this leave us? It leaves us with the Rangers, Rays, Giants, Cubs, Padres, Twins, and Cardinals being heavily overlooked today (by my estimates). I’d be willing to let yourself get to some stacks of these teams today because the chalk is so obvious. It’s going to be difficult but I would bet it’s worth it. The Giants are likely to be my team of choice to be unique on today. Trevor Williams is fine, but not good. Give me Michael Conforto, LaMonte Wade Jr, and Jung Hoo Lee today.

This is all I’ve got for us today. I’ll be covering the slate in depth on the Badge Bros YouTube with my pal Jon Warner at 4PM EST for more. Thank you for reading folks. I’ll be back on Wednesday for more!

Nez

Pirates (Mitch Keller, RHP) @ Nationals (Trevor Williams, RHP)
Tigers (Casey Mize, RHP) @ Mets (Adrian Houser, RHP)
Rockies (Cal Quantrill, RHP) @ Cubs (Luke Little, LHP)
Blue Jays (Chris Bassitt, RHP) @ Astros (Cristian Javier, RHP)
Giants (Kyle Harrison, LHP) @ Dodgers (Tyler Glasnow, RHP)

Good morning! We have a brand new prize structure for our main slate today. The entry fee has gone from $5 to $7, with a prize pool of $30k, and a first place of $5k. This is a much welcomed change in my opinion, as drafting baseball isn’t the easiest sport to autodraft and get volume in on a given day. The price point helps with the “bang for buck” and time spent formula that is proprietary and locked inside my brain. (The formula always tells me to play as much as possible).

We’ve got some nagging weather today, but I’m hopeful that we get the necessary three games in to have a functional slate. We can essentially cross Tigers/Mets off our ranks because there is no way that game plays unless weather models are going rogue.

Favorite Teams

1. Dodgers
2. Pirates
3. Cubs
4. Astros
5. Nationals
6. Blue Jays

Pitching Preferences

1. Tyler Glasnow
2. Mitch Keller
3. Cristian Javier
4. Chris Bassitt
5. Kyle Harrison
6. Luke Little

I’m already starting to get nostalgic for when my Pirates bullish stances were a result of being a diehard fan and not because the team is actually decent. They get a great matchup against former Bucco Trevor Williams. Would you believe me if I said this was the first game they are facing a RHP? It’s true! Which means it’s Oneil Cruz day. I have high expectations for him this season and will be aggressively drafting him today on a shortened slate. His upside is immense.

The Dodgers are the Dodgers and will never require a “sell” from me. Mookie Betts is off to a blazing start and Ohtani hasn’t even hit his stride yet. They’re ridiculous, but don’t get a layup tonight against Kyle Harrison. He showed off his plus fastball against the right handed heavy Padres and looked sharp, but not sharp enough to want to stack Dodgers today. Good luck Kyle, my best ball bags will be watching.

Cristian Javier trick us last season. After a dazzling 2022 post-season, he seemingly lost his mojo and the ability to miss bats with his fastball. In his first start in 2024, he posted a stuff+ of 122, good for 5th among starters with a minimum of one game started. Very, very small sample, but this is what you want to see for Javier, someone who over a large sample once looked like a top 10 SP in baseball. The Blue Jays are likely to have some major ups and downs this year, and given the size of today’s slate, I’ll be playing both sides of this one, but primarily on the side of Javier getting over on the Jays. They’re not a priority for me today.

I love Mitch Keller, this is well documented. But he does not come without his own faults, as we saw last season with a good season that was met sporadically with some bad starts. His first start against Miami was not exactly what Pirates fans were hoping for, especially considering the skill level of that lineup. The Nationals are not much better, but could still give Keller some problems. I will be drafting some CJ Abrams today when Keller is not my SP in drafts. He’s #good, and could be a major thorn in the Pirates side this series.

I have a busy day to get started, so this will conclude today’s short slate. Good luck tonight, thank you for being here.

Nez

Tigers (Casey Mize, RHP) @ Mets (Adrian Houser, RHP)
Rockies (Kyle Freeland, LHP) @ Cubs (Javier Assad, RHP)
Braves (Reynaldo Lopez, RHP) @ White Sox (Garrett Crochet, LHP)
Blue Jays (Jose Berrios, RHP) @ Astros (Framber Valdez, LHP)
Red Sox (Brayan Bello, RHP) @ Athletics (Alex Wood, LHP)
Guardians (Shane Bieber, RHP) @ Mariners (Luis Castillo, RHP)
Cardinals (Miles Mikolas, RHP) @ Padres (Yu Darvish, RHP)
Yankees (Nestor Cortes, LHP) @ D-backs (Zac Gallen, RHP)
Giants (Logan Webb, RHP) @ Dodgers (TBD)

Good morning! It is Tuesday, but feels like a Monday or a Thursday in the baseball streets as some teams are getting scheduled rest after playing five or four games straight to start the season. The Pirates will remain undefeated for yet another calendar day after taking care of business yesterday. They’re awesome and real.

Last night, Kyle Tucker and Yainer Diaz smashed the slate. We also saw some dominant pitching performances from Tanner Houck and Sean Manaea, and a no-hitter from Ronel Blanco! Therefore, as long as you had one of these three, you were good. The case most slates will be something like this, where even when you have a no-hitter, SP needs multiple factors in place to truly separate on a given slate. It starts with the SP themselves having a great performance. The second most important factor is everyone else failing. This is obviously tough, but it will happen now and again, though not the most likely outcome. I love pitching and I love to analyze it, unfortunately it will not factor in much when it comes to drafting SP, but evaluations can be helpful in identify offenses to target. See last night with Bowden Francis – we had a decent read on his pitch mix not being ideal, and he was indeed shelled by a daunting Astros lineup. Anyhow – let’s get to today!

Favorite Teams

1. Braves
2. Cubs
3. Padres
4. Tigers
5. D-backs
6. Mets
7. Dodgers
8. Astros

Pitching Preferences

1. Luis Castillo
2. Shane Bieber
3. Zac Gallen
4. Logan Webb
5. Brayan Bello
6. Framber Valdez

We’ve got ourselves an interesting landscape today. There’s a lot of good offenses facing good pitching, with some lesser teams facing meh pitching. It’s going to be difficult to dissect stacks to target today, for me at least.

Let’s start with the Dodgers. They’re facing my son Logan Webb, and I’m not going to be drafting them with a smile on my face, but I will have some Dodgers today. Rarely will there be a slate that we are off Dodgers that isn’t weather related, and I’m not advocating for an LA fade here tonight. Just that it’s a tough opponent in Webb.

The Braves take on Garrett Crochet, who had one hell of a debut against Detroit. The problem is, he faces the Braves today. The outcome of this start will cause large ripples within the fantasy community. If he dominates this lineup, he will be revered and highly sought after for the rest of the season. If he is crushed, well, I will still hold out hope. Unfortunately for Garrett, I’m going to be drafting lots of Braves right handed bats today. Prove me wrong if you are truly him, but I will be funneling to Atlanta today.

The Cubs are going to be one of my highest owned stacks today. I think if you are in a time crunch today, setting up your ranks that primarily have you drafting Cubs is viable today. Kyle Freeland’s first start was not a fluke. He has been this bad for a long time. It’s a sad situation in Colorado and the road gets a little bit longer today. Cubs right handed bats should feast today.

As of writing this we don’t have a starter for the Dodgers, but the Giants lineup isn’t too strong so I’m not really sweating it.

Reynaldo Lopez is making a start for Atlanta today, his first since 2022 (where he made one start, and 60 relief appearances). The Braves are a very smart organization, and we should be on high alert with this Reynaldo start. He has kept an ERA below 3.50 the last three seasons, and still rocks a 98 MPH four seam, paired with a slider. I think stacking White Sox today makes sense at a relatively light clip, as I’m not convinced Reynaldo will become a bonafide starter just because he’s with the Braves. We will monitor this start because I’m intrigued, but I’m not fading the White Sox today entirely. Their lineup is still respectable.

Good luck to all today. Here’s hoping the contests will fill so we can keep increasing the prize pools!
Nez

Tigers (Reese Olson, RHP) @ Mets (Sean Manaea, LHP)
Blue Jays (Bowden Francis, RHP) @ Astros (Ronel Blanco, RHP)
Red Sox (Tanner Houck, RHP) @ Athletics (Joe Boyle, RHP)
Guardians (Triston McKenzie, RHP) @ Mariners (Emerson Hancock, RHP)
Cardinals (Kyle Gibson, RHP) @ Padres (Matt Waldron, RHP)
Yankees (Luis Gil, RHP) @ D-backs (Ryne Nelson, RHP)
Giants (Keaton Winn, RHP) @ Dodgers (James Paxton, LHP)

No weather to report for the main slate, play ball!

Good morning! I hope you had a good weekend and a nice Easter if you celebrated. The Easter bunny gave me a Pirates sweep in my basket, how thoughtful. My boys are buzzing and are headed to DC for a three game series with a real shot at starting 7-0 on the season, although Vegas has them as underdogs today facing MacKenzie Gore. Not on the main slate though, so nothing for us to dwell on. Good luck to the Nats this series!

Onto today’s main slate. We have more right handed pitchers than left handed for once, and a lot of guys with very little major league starting experience or none at all. Should be fun!

Favorite Teams

1. Yankees
2. Astros
3. Dodgers
4. D-backs
5. Padres
6. Red Sox

Pitching Preferences

1. Triston McKenzie
2. Tanner Houck
3. James Paxton
4. Sean Manaea
5. Reese Olson
6. Emerson Hancock

As I stated, lots of unfamiliar faces for us today. Some rookies and some others with very little experience at the major league level. Let’s start with Luis Gil for the Yankees, who is making his first start since 2022 after recovering from Tommy John Surgery. He made six starts in 2021 as a 23 year old and managed a 3.07 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP. If it weren’t for Gerrit Cole’s elbow, he wouldn’t even be in the rotation. He did have a nice spring though, and flirts with triple digits with the heater and pairs it with a CH + SL. My assessment is that he’s a boom or bust guy today who can either spin himself a solid number of Ks in 5-6 innings or get pulled before his 9th out due to control issues. The D-backs are off to a white hot start (playing Colorado will do that) and have a great 1 through 6 in the order. In teams where I don’t have any D-backs, I could understand taking a flier on Gil. I don’t think the upside is there to truly separate, but that’s a rare feat these days anyhow.

Bowden Francis is a 27 year old right hander for Toronto that threw 36.1 IP out of the pen last season for the big league club. In his minor league starts he was just ok, though his 2023 AAA numbers were a career best for him as a starter that seemed to carry over into his relief duties. He might be good, he’s got a 94 MPH fastball that he pairs with a 74 MPH curve, which is a gulf of difference in velocity that you typically don’t see from pitchers. Some call this a perk, I think this could be to his detriment. The reason being is that the velocity gives the shape of his curve a long loopy look out of the hand, and by the 2nd time through an order hitters may pick this up quickly as opposed to him only seeing a handful of at bats as a reliever. Not to mention he’s in Houston taking on the Astros here, a tall task for anyone. I’m betting against the kid today but wish him well.

Joe Boyle is a 6’7″ 24 year old right hander for the A’s that throws gas. He pairs with a slider and a curve, but the fastball was what he leaned on heavily in 2023. He showed good results, but clearly struggled with command from what I saw from him. If he can control the slider well as an out pitch as opposed to relying on the heater get by guys, he can be an actual useful starter for Oakland. The Red Sox aren’t juggernauts, but Casas and Devers will be a problem from Boyle. I’m mixing in some Red Sox bats today, but I think Boyle is fine to mix in to your SP portfolio if you’re not stacking Sox.

Matt Waldron made 6 starts and 2 relief appearances for the Padres last season, and was fine but not great. He’s not a very formidable pitcher, but the Cardinals look lost once again. I’m going to have a handful of Cardinals stacks as the flood gates could soon open for them, but none of these bats are off to a good start. That said, I’ll build some stacks around Nolan Gorman until it finally pays off.

Keaton Winn actually looks intriguing as a prospect. He’s got a 70 grade splitter per Fangraphs, and pairs this with a 96 MPH fastball. That’s a winning formula if he can command them, and he will have to because they are essentially all he throws. It’s a really tough spot to have to face the Dodgers in LA, and I’m strongly betting against him, but we will keep a close on Keaton Winn moving forward, because I’m intrigued by the profile.

There are plenty of ways to attack today’s slate given all of this information. Seven games is a really nice size for a slate as it allows us to easily get to some of the “bad” plays today once bases are covered elsewhere. I like Tanner Houck today, but I’m always building out a few A’s lineups in my portfolio because they are always low owned.

I will most likely be lightest exposed to the Cleveland/Seattle game. I like both of these pitchers today in a good park against two of the weaker offenses on the slate. Hancock has made three starts for the M’s in his career and held a 4.50 ERA. He was the 6th overall pick in the 2020 draft and mostly threw a fastball/slider/changeup. Given the factors of the opponent + park plus pedigree as a prospect, I’m liking him as a low owned option today in the event the chalk starters fail.

Best of luck today! I hope you are enjoying these posts. If you have any suggestions please feel free to let me know. See you tomorrow.

Nez

Pirates (Martin Perez, LHP) @ Marlins (AJ Puk, LHP)
Yankees (Carlos Rodon, LHP) @ Astros (Cristian Javier, RHP)
Rockies (Cal Quantrill, RHP) @ D-backs (Merrill Kelly, RHP)
Guardians (Logan Allen, LHP) @ Athletics (Ross Stripling, RHP)
Giants (Kyle Harrison, LHP) @ Padres (Joe Musgrove, RHP)
Red Sox (Nick Pivetta, RHP) @ Mariners (George Kirby, RHP)
Cardinals (Zack Thompson, LHP) @ Dodgers (Bobby Miller, RHP)

Good morning! One slate of baseball is now behind us. I hope you had an enjoyable Opening Day, and a profitable one if fortunate favored you. In my post yesterday, I deemed the Rockies to be “irresponsible” for what they were doing in their rotation this season. I think I was perhaps too kind. An absolute bludgeoning took place last night in Phoenix Arizona, and we’re likely to see another beat down today. Cal Quantrill, god speed buddy.

I had a winning night thanks to a win in the Grand Slam, a winner take all contest that I unfortunately had to knock my good pal Chipsy out of first to win. My winning lineup contained 5 D-backs, with Tarik Skubal at pitcher. The onslaught meta has begun.

Or has it?

In the main slate – a 40k prize pool contest – first place was chopped among three victors with three unique lineups using three different constructions!

Hey, there’s Chipsy again. Good night to be heavy on the D-backs I suppose.

I found it very amusing that things broke this way, as it gave a chance to highlight the number of ways someone can win a contest in baseball. It’s not often you see one, let alone two lineups take first with a batter + opposing pitcher in them. I think both of these users would tell you they won’t be doing that on purpose in the future if they can help it. My point is, a team full of one offs, and two teams with different stacking constructions got home and that is why my portfolio will contain the construction diversity that it does.

Let’s get into some lists.

Pitching Preferences

1. Merrill Kelly
2. George Kirby
3. Bobby Miller
4. Logan Allen
5. Joe Musgrove
6. Nick Pivetta
7. Kyle Harrison

Favorite Teams

1. Dodgers
2. D-backs
3. Yankees
4. Pirates
5. Guardians
6. Astros

We’ve got a very nice seven game slate today. We can focus a bit less on trying to cover all of our bases and more on favorite plays, which makes for an enjoyable draft experience. Once again, Dodgers and D-backs are screaming in our faces as the best plays. Zack Thompson is an ok lefty, but that will leave you wildly overmatched when your opponent is the LA Dodgers. For the D-backs, they get Cal Quantrill. Another lefty, who could at one time be described as decent, has not been decent in recent form. He will be food for this Arizona team.

Cristian Javier will be facing the Yankees today in Houston, and I will be very interested to see how he looks today. His range of outcomes are quite wide, I would not be surprised to see him go 6 strong with 8 Ks or leave before the 4th inning ends with bumps and bruises. His 2023 season left me scorned, but I’m not closing the door on Javier for dailies just yet. But for today, I will be building some Yankees stacks.

The same can be said for Carlos Rodon on the other side of this game, although his story is a bit different. Returning from injury in 2023, he looked anything but himself. He has since had a healthy Spring with some flashes of good velo, so it’s hard to know what to expect from him today. The Astros being the Astros, however, will lead me to some stacks of them against a pitcher I need to see in order to believe is truly back.

I am once again building Pirates stacks. You can join me if you’d like. Hayes, Davis, and McCutchen will always be a part of my portfolio against LHP. Get used to hearing that get touted. The Pirates are starting Martin Perez today, and while I don’t think he’s good, I don’t fear the fish enough to take them against him. If I was to build Marlins stacks, it would be with Burger and De La Cruz. Jazz is probably worth throwing in there too sometimes, but I won’t be doing it much.

Best of luck today! Thank you to everyone who read yesterday’s post and is here today. A little blown away at the traffic generated from yesterday and hope this is enjoyable, useful, or just providing some form of value to you as a reader. Thanks for all of the support. There will be a stream on the BadgeBros channel for our YouTube members at a time TBD.

Nez

Good morning!

Man it feels great to say that again. Happy Opening Day folks, you’ve earned it. We’ve made it to another season of God’s Game, as we usher in a brand new era of Underdog Fantasy with our good friends Neumy + Hope at the wheel and increased prize pools thanks to the insane growth the platform has seen in just one calendar year. 

As a precursor for the 2024 season, I would like these posts to not necessarily serve as spoon-fed answers to the slate, but as commentary with a layout of my initial takes. I try to use as little outside information as possible (i.e. projections) and provide an unfiltered look at each game. This was the formula last year, so all that to say not much will be changing!

MLB dailies are very fun to play. They’re also challenging. It makes sense – there are 9 eligible players to be drafted for every team on the slate, and the slates are often filled with ten or more games. This can often manifest itself in some frustrating ways. Say for a example, a player you never drafted goes off because you couldn’t fit him into your limited number of drafts. It can be easy for someone to begin to question themselves throughout a season when you are losing to teams like this. Were these lineups -EV over a large sample? Did it even matter?

This season, with the max number of entries on a given slate (which was often below 100 last season) likely being over 150+, it’s a reality we’ll be facing more often (hard to get to lineups taking first place). I will be utilizing the Plane feature a fair amount this season while queueing up onslaught builds for these unlikely scenarios. This helps me increase my volume by saving me time and puts me in a position to capitalize on an unlikely scenario.

Macro Takes

My macro strategy for each slate can be broken down into three categories. Exposures, Portfolio Management, Roster Construction.

Exposures and portfolio management are very much tied together. Both are risk tolerance dependent, but given the size of the prize pools (which are nothing to sneeze at), an exploitative stance every single slate is not something I would suggest nor do I think is profitable long term as long as the prize pools are what they are. Unless your goal is to win 50% of a given prize pool (which shockingly I would call unrealistic), then you should want to have a portfolio that has exposure to most of the teams on a slate. Please note that this is me speaking from my own playstyle, you are welcome to do whatever you’d like when you play.

What I am trying to accomplish when drafting a portfolio in baseball

• Identify what stacks are popular
• Identify my favorite plays
• Construct smartly
• Cast a wide net
• Stack, stack stack

Roster Constructure

One of the most frequently asked questions I’ve gotten is “what is the best way to stack for baseball?” The truth is that there isn’t a build that is head and shoulders better than the rest. If I could rank constructions (number of teammates, not including pitcher):

1. 3+2
2. 4+1
3. 3+1+1
4. 2+2+1
5. 5+P
6. 2+1+1+1

Sometimes a slate winner contains no stacks at all. This is difficult to repeat night to night. You should save a few entries for these type of builds, but I’m not dedicating a significant portion of my drafts to those type of builds at all.

Now, let’s get to the good stuff. I’ve got drafts to finish!

Slate Breakdown

Pirates (Mitch Keller, RHP) @ Marlins (Jesus Luzardo, LHP)
Tigers (Tarik Skubal, LHP) @ White Sox (Garrett Crochet, LHP)
Twins (Pablo Lopez, RHP) @ Royals (Cole Ragans, LHP)
Cardinals (Miles Mikolas, RHP) @ Dodgers (Tyler Glasnow, RHP)
Giants (Logan Webb, RHP) @ Padres (Yu Darvish, RHP)
Nationals (Josiah Gray, RHP) @ Reds (Frankie Montas, RHP)
Blue Jays (Jose Berrios, RHP) @ Rays (Zach Eflin, RHP)
Yankees (Nestor Cortes, LHP) @ Astros (Framber Valdez, LHP)
Cubs (Justin Steele, LHP) @ Rangers (Nathan Eovaldi, RHP)
Rockies (Kyle Freeland, LHP) @ D-backs (Zac Gallen, RHP)
Guardians (Shane Bieber, RHP) @ Athletics (Alex Wood, LHP)
Red Sox (Brayan Bello, RHP) @ Mariners (Luis Castillo, LHP)

Pitching Preferences

1. Zac Gallen
2. Tarik Skubal
3. Tyler Glasnow
4. Luis Castillo
5. Pablo Lopez
6. Mitch Keller
7. Shane Bieber
8. Logan Webb
9. Cole Ragans
10. Jesus Luzardo

Favorite Teams

1. Dodgers
2. D-backs
3. Astros
4. Tigers
5. Cubs
6. Rangers
7. Reds
8. Nationals

Opening day is always tricky to navigate. It’s basically a Spring Training game except the games matter. It’s not uncommon to see some rust needing knocked off and see unusual results on the field. So while there are some obvious stacks to prioritize today, we should be open to the range of outcomes that these plays are outscored, which is likelier than we care to admit.

Because the max number of entries today in the main contest is 150, I will be leaning into uniqueness angle today quite a bit. We talk (just a little bit) about scrolling down in these Battle Royales. On a day like today, it’s never made more sense. Very few people will want to stay off of the plays I’ve listed above. We need to use our imaginations to get some grosser plays that can set us up for success!

As I mentioned above in regards to roster construction, you can do this in a number of ways. You can get exposure to these lesser drafted players in the form of a one-off, or really maximize your leverage by stacking 3 or more players from a rarely drafted team, such as the Giants or Athletics today. This contrarian style of drafting can prove to be even stronger when the opposing pitcher is a top three option on the slate that nobody is wanting to stack against. Again, we shouldn’t be using all of our bullets on these unlikely scenarios, but with so much entries available to us, it doesn’t make sense not to throw a few of these in the porfolio.

It’s difficult at this stage to have too many micro takes without seeing what these players look like in 2024. But one thing that is for certain is the Rockies are going to be a target for us every single slate. There’s not one pitcher worth being afraid of in their rotation, home or away. It’s honestly irresponsible what they’ve done in Colorado. I know that no free agent wants to pitch in the Rocky Mountains, but wow. There’s not one pitcher that projects for more than 110 strikeouts nor is there one that projects for an ERA less than 5. We will be looking their way a lot this season.

Of course, I’ll also be looking to get to my Pirates this season as well, early and often. While I have real concerns over their rotation, their starting lineup is competent and can hold their own. Better suited against right handed pitching, players like Henry Davis, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Andrew McCutchen will be a problem for lefties. I’ve talked on camera many times about the changes Ke’Bryan Hayes has made to his fly ball rate and his pull rate last season, and these changes held up throughout Spring Training. His breakout is coming, and I will have front row seats.

One of the “sneakier” stacks I would try to get to today is the Oakland Athletics. Shane Bieber is the SP1 on Underdog, and he’s coming off a down year. The Athletics are basement dwellers and should be a bottom three team on the season, but that doesn’t mean they are worthless. In a matchup I deem to be “fine”, a Gelof/Noda/Rooker stack will be drafted at a near non-existent clip and something I wouldn’t be shocked to see get home today.

Good luck with all of your drafts leading up to first pitch. If you have any questions or opinions please find me on Twitter dot com. My DMs are open! Oh, and Let’s Go Bucs baby.

Nez

Good morning! It’s Week Three, and we already know everything there is to know about these teams for the rest of the season. We are ready for no more surprises and everything to happen exactly how we presume. (He said with a wry smile on his face). I’m just tricking you.

Let’s start with last week. I was fortunate to finish first in the Dawg Bowl Qualifier, in a week where the entry fee was $50 and the fill rate finished at 68%. I had four entries total. I couldn’t be happier to be heading to Miami in December. I’ll be attempting to acquire another seat at the tournament until these qualifiers are finished, because it was quite fun to win that seat, and having more than one team in this contest would be an enormous advantage over the field. Most everyone I follow in this space had a great week last week it seemed, which is awesome. It’s much more fun to win with others than alone. My personal takeaway from last week is that while I was right on my draft choices, I need to be sure to not become take-locked and overconfident moving forward. The range of outcomes don’t all of a sudden become narrower because I built a winning lineup. And on the flip side, losing money doesn’t mean you are clueless and that you must resort to simply “guessing”.

Week 3 Stuff

Let’s start talking Week 3. I’m about 50 drafts in (DBQ + Main Slate combined) and the landscape continues to change as injury reports shift and weather forecasts become clearer. The latter seemingly having a strong effect on the east coast games, with many of these point totals dropping as we approach Sunday. Here’s what Kevin Roth thinks about these games as of this post going live.

I needed the L*rd to give me a sign to not play the Jets/Patriots game this week, and sure enough he gave me one. Blessed.

It’s going to be hard to not let these weather forecasts get into your head. It’s going to be very hard. But I urge you to not care. Please, do not care.

You are much better off ignoring the weather FUD. Unless the storm brings sustained winds over 20 MPH, in which case it’s time to pay attention and slam the panic button on passing games.

As far as the game environments are concerned, this slate has more lopsided matchups than I can remember one slate having in a while. Chiefs*, Cowboys, Bills, Jaguars*, Dolphins*, Seahawks*, and Ravens* are all favored by at least 6.5 points. (* = home team). We also have a monster total of 53.5 with Chargers @ Vikings that feels impossible to disappoint. Neither of these teams like to win convincingly. It will be exciting to see which team loses this game in what should be an exciting shootout.

Favorite Teams

1. Vikings
2. Chargers
3. Chiefs
4. Cowboys
5. Ravens
6. Jaguars
7. Dolphins
8. Bills
9. Seahawks

QB		RB		WR		TE
Patrick Mahomes		Tony Pollard		Justin Jefferson		Travis Kelce
Josh Allen		Bijan Robinson		Tyreek Hill		Mark Andrews
Justin Herbert		Kenneth Walker III		CeeDee Lamb		TJ Hockenson
Kirk Cousins		Travis Etienne		Keenan Allen		Evan Engram
Lamar Jackson		Raheem Mostert		Calvin Ridley		Sam LaPorta
Justin Fields		Jahmyr Gibbs		Mike Williams		Dalton Kincaid
Tua Tagovailoa		Derrick Henry		Stefon Diggs		Zach Ertz
Dak Prescott		Joshua Kelley		Amon-Ra St Brown		Hunter Henry
Trevor Lawrence		Brian Robinson Jr.		Jordan Addison		Cole Kmet
Jared Goff		James Cook		Chris Olave		Jake Ferguson
Russell Wilson		Zack Moss		Tyler Lockett		David Njoku
		Isiah Pacheco		DK Metcalf		Dalton Schultz
		Gus Edwards		Nico Collins		Durham Smythe
		Alexander Mattison		Michael Pittman		Dawson Knox
		Jerick McKinnon		Amari Cooper
		Javonte Williams		Zay Flowers
		Miles Sanders		DJ Moore
				Gabe Davis
				Christian Kirk
				Jerry Jeudy
				Drake London
				Christian Watson
				Terry McLaurin
				Courtland Sutton
				Jahan Dotson
				K.J. Osborn
				Skyy Moore
				Justin Watson
				Rashod Bateman

Gross Plays

This week is likely to feature at least one upset. Trying to play for one in a BR lineup can lead to some profits. Here are some scenarios I’m playing for

Commanders defeat Bills

• Sam Howell + Terry McLaurin/Jahan Dotson + Brian Robinson Jr.

Bears compete with Chiefs

• Justin Fields + Cole Kmet/DJ Moore/Darnell Mooney, optional + Khalil Herbert

Tight Ends fail

• Tua Tagovailoa + Durham Smythe
• Kyle Pitts + Jahmyr Gibbs/Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Josh Allen + Dalton Kincaid/Dawson Knox
• Dak Prescot + Jake Ferguson

Vikings vs Chargers gets weird

• Alexander Mattison + Gerald Everett/Joshua Palmer
• Joshua Kelley + Alexander Mattison/KJ Osborn

Deshaun Watson has a good game

• Watson + Njoku/Elijah Moore/Amari Cooper/Jerome Ford

Best of luck to everyone today. Let’s have a profitable week, and remember to go easy on yourself if things don’t go your way.

Nez

Structured ramblings packaged as strategy. Some call it a “Blog”

Good morning! Welcome to the first NFL edition of Nez Takes dot com. This post specifically will be a bit of a Primer part two, along with some preliminary thoughts on the week based on the information we have to date. I’d also like to level set what to expect from these posts moving forward, since this is the grand opening of me writing thoughts on upcoming NFL weeks. Let’s start with that.

I anticipate one post a week, delivered every Friday or Saturday. I’ll rarely spend time covering the past games and strictly focus on what’s to come, which will inevitably have some notes about weeks prior, but I’ll do my best to skip the recaps and keep forward focused. The reasons being: the time it takes to write up games (well) and the resources that exist already that give you this information much better than I ever could. If you’re looking for a resource to give you a synopsis of games past with fantasy relevant context, look no further than Stealing Signals. Ben Gretch does an excellent job of covering what you need to know about the games along with his own analysis. Additionally, Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report is available on Fantasy Life. Highly recommend both of these resources.

Post-Intro

Looking ahead now, let’s talk Week 2.

The great thing about Battle Royale’s is that the market/environment its played in is incredibly reactive. In classic DFS, the salaries that big brother gives you plays a heavy hand in how opponents play the game, along with past results of course. BRs create the opportunity to take advantage of this type of thinking/drafting and rewards those who are able to weigh these factors to their advantage, as the market is set by your opponents in real time.

We saw this effect take place with TE ADPs. Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews both returned to practice in limited fashions and have very appealing game environments, and have since been ruled active with a pretty green icon on the app. We received discounts on both of these players this week, which has made them some of my highest owned players period this week, let alone at their position.

9/16

Favorite Teams

1. Bills
2. 49ers
3. Lions
4. Bengals
5. Ravens
6. Chiefs
7. Chargers
8. Titans

Player Preferences

QB		RB		WR		TE
Josh Allen		Christian McCaffrey		Stefon Diggs		Travis Kelce
Patrick Mahomes		Saquon Barkley		Ja’Marr Chase		Mark Andrews
Lamar Jackson		Derrick Henry		Amon-Ra St. Brown		Darren Waller
Joe Burrow		Josh Jacobs		Davante Adams		George Kittle
Justin Herbert		Travis Etienne		Calvin Ridely		Evan Engram
Trevor Lawrence		Tony Pollard		Keenan Allen		Sam LaPorta
Justin Fields		Bijan Robinson		Deebo Samuel		Dalton Kincaid
Anthony Richardson		Jahmyr Gibbs		Michael Pittman		Tyler Higbee
Geno Smith		James Cook		CeeDee Lamb		Kyle Pitts
Daniel Jones		Isiah Pacheco		Tee Higgins		Cole Kmet
		David Montgomery		DK Metcalf
		Joe Mixon		Brandon Aiyuk
		Joshua Kelley		Mike Evans
		Breece Hall		Garrett Wilson
		Kenneth Walker III		Christian Kirk
				Mike Williams
				Gabe Davis
				Zay Flowers
				Tyler Lockett
				Zay Jones
				Chris Godwin
				Jaxon Smith-Njigba
				Drake London

There aren’t many egregious priced players this week in BRs. I’m constructing most of my drafts around 3 pieces of a single game, whether thats 2+1 run back or a 3 man stack. There are a handful of games this week in which I’m avoiding taking more than one player from. But some players I do have interest in as one-offs who are in “gross” spots:

• Texans
  • Dameon Pierce
  • Nico Collins
• Colts
  • Anthony Richardson
  • Michael Pittman
  • Zack Moss
• Broncos
  • Javonte Williams
  • Jerry Jeudy
• Commanders
  • Brian Robinson Jr
• Rams
  • Puka Nacua
  • Tyler Higbee
• Cardinals
  • James Conner
• Bears
  • Justin Fields
  • DJ Moore
  • Cole Kmet
• Bucs
  • Mike Evans
  • Chris Godwin
  • Rachaad White

Almost all the players listed above will be sub 5% drafted across the entire contest. That equates to being roughly 1% owned cumulatively vs 16% for the top 20 in ADP. In my opinion, the way to get unique this week as at the Running Back position. We have salary DFS chalk plays in our game who are in line for a metric shit-ton of work that go undrafted more often than not. Let’s talk about one of those players: AJ Dillon.

This statmuse graphic is pretty meaningless for our discussion, but it’s fairly obvious that AJD is simply an OK player, nothing more. And this matchup against what I find to be a very underrated Falcons defense, that features an offense that will kill the clock slowly and painfully when they have the ball, bodes very poorly for the Packers as a whole, and in our case AJD. The low ownership is very appealing, however. Nobody at RB besides CMC + Saquon have “great” spots, so it’s not inconceivable Dillon provides you with a top 5 score at the position, but by how many points to matter given his low-end outcomes? That’s the question. I have some shares, but not many.

The real point of that isn’t necessarily about AJ Dillon as a play, but moreso thinking through the type of plays we should be seeking out in BRs. Let me introduce to the real grossest play of today – Khalil Herbert.

We saw the Bears get embarrassed last week against the Packers. The offense was atrocious, no way of sugar coating that performance. I’m not ready to completely write off Fields and company just because of that, and now they go into Tampa Bay against a defense that certainly isn’t bad, but I feel confident is not as good as the Packers.

We received word this morning that D’Onta Foreman is a healthy scratch. This is equally beneficial to Herbert and Roschon Johnson, but I’m anticipating a slight bump to Herbert’s workload this week. The passing game work is encouraging, and I’m expecting Herbert to remain involved there moving forward. He’s being overlooked completely in the main slate, and I want to make the bet that he breaks off a long run this week and/or finds the end zone against a not good Tampa Bay team.

I’d like to wrap this up before kickoff, so let me end this by saying – I am not feeling the Seahawks very much today. I really find this Detroit Lions team to be much, much different than last seasons. The defense early looks to be much improved, and they will run the air out of the ball if and when they possess a lead. The Seahawks are down two offensive lineman this week, and I worry about their ability to have any sort of flow offensively. I’m taking a lot of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in response to this. I’m not anticipating a shootout here, though the pieces in this game aren’t necessarily “chalk” either.

Best of luck this week. I appreciate you if you’re here, and I vow to make these posts more coherent in future weeks when I feel I have a better grasp on who these teams really are and how I think these games will play out. Sometimes I think I need a journal and not a blog. Maybe journal then blog in the future? I’ll figure it out. Thanks for reading.

Nez

Game Theory, The Guys You Need*, and Swaps

Good morning. It is September 1st (as of writing this), and it’s the last day we won’t have a Battle Royale tournament to draft in the Underdog lobby. I am beyond excited to start drafting and theorizing how to best play these. In this post I’ll review the (varying) contest structure, the dynamics of drafting that come with it, and how to leverage the rules of player swaps in your favor.

Basic Contest Structure – what is a “Battle Royale”?

Battle Royales are Underdog’s DFS offering for all sports. The NFL “main slate” features a six round, six person draft lobby. It is quite the shock to go from drafting 216 players per draft to only 36 in the blink of an eye. For NFL BRs, you’re drafting 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex. It is half-PPR, the same scoring settings as BBM. Due to this, touchdowns are disproportionally valuable for these contests. The problem of course is that touchdowns are random! This is why we play the game baby. We will use our knowledge of what creates value in fantasy football to make our decisions in these contests, along with a little game theory.

Back to the contests – so, you complete a draft with five others. You are not just competing with your fellow drafters in said lobby. These drafts are pooled into one big tournament for the week along with the tens of thousands of other drafts that take place for the slate. It lends itself to being advantageous for the volume player as it gives you more opportunity to find yourself in a unique room with falling value or getting a hard to draft stack. This doesn’t mean it’s impossible to win if you’re not drafting 20+ teams, but it’s certainly enticing to so (as it always is in DFS).

One of the last wrinkles to add to this is that we cannot draft six players from one team. Your team will be forced to draft at a minimum one player from a different team. Not that drafting five players from one team is advantageous, but simply outlining a rule that exists across the board.

Base Strategy Points

One of the original game theory levers in DFS is uniqueness. Last season, we saw manifest in a number of ways, but on the whole it was the year of the Chalk Donkey last season. In the Battle Royale streets, “chalk” represents such a small percentage of the total player pool as we’re only drafting 36 players a lobby. That is a fraction of the player pool in your typical 13-game slate. When we say on Badge Bros to “scroll the F down”, that doesn’t necessarily mean:

• Waiting until round six to scroll
• Scrolling well past the ADP of 30
• Avoiding the top10 in ADP
• Taking an extremely low floor player

While you can have success doing one or some combination of the above, it can be as simple as taking Raheem Mostert (35.3 ADP) and Deebo Samuel (35.4) on the same team in the main slate this week. This is not a huge sacrifice if you consider their range of outcomes vs their peers! So scroll down, but don’t go down the rabbit hole too far. Or do it, be my guest. Point being, it is very easy to get unique in BRs without sacrificing too many projected points.

Correlation City

We love to correlate on Underdog. An entire summer of drafting for one season of football has been completely hijacked over the idea of correlating for Week 17. We’re stacking to the nth degree and running those stacks back with even more stacks in best ball. Which raises an important question: how important is stacking in Battle Royales? To help gauge this, Lex Miraglia posted a quick thread on what we saw take down BRs the last two seasons. Obvious caveat of small samples apply to this, but it’s worth reviewing.

Evidence/data aside, I believe that common sense will lead you toward an answer to this question of “it depends, but most often, we do not want to over-correlate.” One of the major guard rails I am applying to my drafts based on this logic is to only attribute a very small portion of my portfolio to stacks greater than 3 players per game. I don’t like to say never here, because there are many circumstances where it can make sense, such as a game stack being overlooked by the field that presents strong upside, or a sizable ADP value falls to me.

Player Selection (who, how often, when?)

Here comes to the fun part. Telling you exactly who to draft and how to win these very fun but very challenging tournaments. While I seem to have misplaced my crystal ball, I do have banners hanging from 2022 from the 12-person contest “Goal Line Stand”.

It appears T.J. Hockenson and CeeDee Lamb are nice to have. Good to know!

One commonality from these two weeks/lineups was the identifying of game environments. Lions vs Seahawks in Week 4 (Amon-Ra St. Brown ruled out on Sunday), and Vikings vs Giants in Week 16. In Week 4, I entered the Goal Line Stand for the first time that week after St. Brown was ruled out, and the lobby either 1) had no faith in the Lions that week or 2) was slow to adjust to the news due to the timing. However, you don’t need to wait until Sunday to capitalize on late breaking news. You can play these situations both ways – by taking a player who is truly Questionable and utilizing the auto-swap to replace them if they are out, or by anticipating it before the lobbies have time to react and adjust to the news and drafting the beneficiaries ahead of time. Let’s focus on swaps for a moment.

Underdog I believe will provide clarification on important swap questions soon (I volunteer to help deliver the messaging to the users by the way, DMs are open), because there’s a lot of nuance that goes into swaps for BR. Without getting too far off course, Underdog will swap out any player ruled OUT in your lineup, providing they were not already ruled OUT or DOUBTFUL when you drafted them (if you are at risk of drafting someone who is not swap eligible, you will receive a notification telling you so). The player that is swapped in depends on your rankings (personal or default), who was/wasn’t drafted in that specific lobby, and who else in your lobby requires a player swap. I’ll leave you on a cliff hanger on the details of swap run for now, because like I said, there are no details of this in the rules.

As far as how much of one player you should take, that is something that is fully in your control, and no right or wrong answer to. It is up to you to decide what your bankroll is for the season/the given week, and make the best decisions you can that align to those goals. The concentration of a given player will also always depend on the context of ADP that week. The important takeaway here is that we understand the risk/reward of our portfolios and we don’t make any assumptions that put us in uncomfortable territory.

Lastly, what do we do about the chalk? One of the most unique things about BRs is that the chalk is not the same as it is on traditional redacted DFS platforms. There’s no salary component to our game, just draft capital spent. We have access to every player at some point throughout our drafts. This can be overwhelming for drafters as they feel obligated to adhere to ADP. Can I really pass up on (WR9) to draft (WR15)? The answer is obviously, of course you can. The chalk in BRs can be loosely identified as the first ~30 picks in ADP. Once you get past pick 30, the frequency that these players are selected is difficult to estimate. It’s helpful for us though to know that regardless of their exact % drafted, the app itself is telling us who is going under-owned. This is valuable information when you combine an under-drafted player on Underdog with the qualities of DFS chalk. These players become great picks for us.

This where I’m going to conclude this post. For the rest of the season, you can expect some form of weekly Take Sheet for the NFL. This week I will be joining the Ship Chasers in Vegas, so a post for Week 1 is TBD.

I hope you found this useful as someone new to the BR streets or even a seasoned veteran. I look forward to reviewing lineups and battling it out with you all this season. Best of luck! Until next time.

Nez

Pitching Preferences

• Spencer Strider
• Braxton Garrett
• Pedro Avila
• Lance Lynn
• Joan Adon
• TBD

Favorite Teams

• Braves
• Marlins
• Dodgers
• Padres
• Giants
• Nationals

Good morning! What a quaint little slate we have today. These are some of my favorites to draft because of the ability to cover a lot of ground with exposures. Not only that, but with a draft size of only four today, there is no ADP data to help the field out. Things will be easier to decipher once we get an idea of what the Giants are doing at pitcher, but for now we can still draft accordingly.

Spencer Strider is my definitive 1.01, even against the Dodgers. He projects far better than the field today from a median standpoint, and of course offers a ludicrous ceiling. If you want to opt for Ronald Acuna Jr or Matt Olson instead, feel free. But I want to be overweight Strider before I do anything else.

Jorge Soler and Lane Thomas are both questionable today. This kind of stinks, not sure what the field is going to be doing about it. If they go undrafted often, I’ll likely mix them in with my last picks. But it’s going to be a wait and see approach from me. They both are great picks if they play, so maybe just rotate them in the 6th if they’re there upon second thought.

Pedro Avila is really intriguing right now. He sports a high K rate, and a sub-3 ERA at the moment, despite mediocre numbers in the minors. He throws a fastball, change, and curve. What stands out, to me, is his ability to command these pitches. Theres a lot of scattered blue on these charts, but the concentrated red areas are what really catch my eye.

The Giants against RHP are typically a team I try to target, but today I can see myself opting for Avila if I miss on Strider. Pitching is gross today, so I’m just trying to find glimmer of hope.

Best of luck today if you’re drafting. Tune in to the Badge Bros today on the Underdog HQ channel to catch some Pennant talk and some daily drafts after some lineups are released.

Nez

Matchups

• Nationals (MacKenzie Gore, LHP) @ Blue Jays (Jose Berrios, RHP)
• Astros (J.P. France, RHP) @ Red Sox (Brayan Bello, RHP)
• Rangers (Andrew Heaney, LHP) @ Mets (Jose Quintana, LHP)
• Guardians (Gavin Williams, RHP) @ Twins (Pablo Lopez, RHP)
• Padres (Seth Lugo, RHP) @ Cardinals (Zack Thompson, LHP)
• Brewers (Corbin Burnes, RHP) @ Cubs (Justin Steele, LHP)
• Pirates (Luis Ortiz, RHP) @ Royals (Cole Ragans, LHP)
• Braves (Charlie Morton, RHP) @ Rockies (Peter Lambert, RHP)
• Athletics (Ken Waldichuk, LHP) @ Mariners (George Kirby, RHP)
• Reds (Brandon Williamson, LHP) @ Giants (Alex Cobb, RHP)
• D-backs (Merrill Kelly, RHP) @ Dodgers (Clayton Kershaw, LHP)

Weather

Pitching Preferences

• Pablo Lopez
• George Kirby
• Cole Ragans
• Justin Steele
• Corbin Burnes
• Alex Cobb
• Jose Berrios
• Clayton Kershaw

Favorite Teams

• Atlanta Braves
  (100 mile gap)
• Astros
• Orioles
• Padres
• Mariners
• Red Sox
• Blue Jays
• Rockies
• Mets
• Royals
• Cardinals

Good afternoon! We’re back with more baseball to draft. Last night was a wild slate. It’s not often you draft a 133 point lineup and don’t profit . But that’s what happens when multiple 30 point performances happen. We live to draft another day, and the Braves are still at Coors.

Let’s see how we can attack the non-Coors lineups today.

Orioles (vs Jesse Scholtens)
We love our Orioles against RHP don’t we folks? Jesse Scholtens is not very good, and Guaranteed Rate Field (worst name of all time btw) is 10th in Park Factor per baseball savant. Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman will make a lot of my teams today.

Mets (vs Andrew Heaney)
Andrew Heaney giveth and taketh when he steps on the mound. The Mets are always live to blow up a slate, and I like their chances here. I’m looking to build 3-man stacks with the Mets with some kind of combination of Alonso, Nimmo, Lindor, and Alvarez.

Cardinals (vs Seth Lugo)
Lugo is coming off a nice outing, but the Cardinals are still a team made of up good hitters. This is mostly a Goldschmidt, Arenado, and Edman play today.

Giants (vs Brandon Williamson, LHP)
This one is for sure thin, but people really don’t like to draft the Giants on Underdog. Thairo Estrada, Wilmer Flores, J.D. Davis, and Casey Schmitt are all guys I’d like to get unique with today. I’ll likely stick to 3-man stacks with the G men today.

Best of luck everyone. The Braves are probably going to smash.

Nez

Matchups
White Sox (Michael Kopech, RHP) @ Orioles (Grayson Rodriguez, RHP)
Nationals (Josiah Gray, RHP) @ Blue Jays (Kevin Gausman, RHP)
Astros (Cristian Javier, RHP) @ Red Sox (Chris Sale, LHP)
Rangers (Jon Gray, RHP) @ Mets (Tylor Megill, RHP)
Guardians (Xzavion Curry, RHP) @ Twins (Kenta Maeda, RHP)
Padres (Blake Snell, LHP) @ Cardinals (Adam Wainwright, RHP)
Brewers (Wade Miley, LHP) @ Cubs (Jameson Taillon, RHP)
Pirates (Johan Oviedo, RHP) @ Royals (Zack Greinke, RHP)
Braves (Bryce Elder, RHP) @ Rockies (Austin Gomber, LHP)
Athletics (TBD) @ Mariners (Bryan Woo, RHP)
Reds (Andrew Abbott, LHP) @ Giants (Kyle Harrison, LHP)
D-backs (Zac Gallen, RHP) @ Dodgers (Bobby Miller, RHP)

Favorite Teams

• Braves (vs Austin Gomber)
• Orioles (vs Michael Kopech)
• Red Sox (vs Cristian Javier)
• Astros (vs Chris Sale)
• Padres (vs Adam Wainwright)
• Mariners (vs A’s)
• Brewers (vs Jameson Taillon)
• Pirates (vs Zack Greinke)
• Rangers (vs Tylor Megill)
• Rockies (vs Bryce Elder)
• Twins (vs Xzavion Curry)

Pitching Preferences

• Kevin Gausman
• Blake Snell
• Grayson Rodriguez
• Kenta Maeda
• Zac Gallen
• Andrew Abbott
• Bryan Woo
• Johan Oviedo

Good Monday morning! We are kicking off the semi-finals tonight in best ball. It’s been a gruesome playoffs thus far for your boy. Having zero Julio Rodriguez shares and plenty of dead Roansy Contreras + Oneil Cruz played a large part in my downfall. I’m up to one Perfect Game and two Dingers left, but nobody cares about my best ball teams.

Today is a large-ish slate, but they won’t be this big for long. Starting in September, most east coast teams will be starting their games a half hour earlier, so we’ll have “better” slates to draft in a few days. For these next few days, we’ve got the Braves at Coors Field against a lefty. Gulp.

All of the Braves go extremely early today, as they should. They feel awful to fade today. Seemingly no possible outcomes exist where they don’t score 6+ runs today. There’s no amount of fangraphs sorting that can lead you to paint a pretty picture for Austin Gomber today. Have a plan before you enter drafts about what you want to do about the Braves. If you’re looking for options outside of them today, let’s take a look at who I’ll be targeting.

Pirates @ KC vs Zack Greinke
I am on record as saying that Zack Greinke is underrated by fantasy players who want to stack against him. While that is still true to me in seemingly smash spots, facing the Pirates is not one of those. Because of this, I think this is a great time to stack Ke’Bryan Hayes with various teammates today. I’ve written about Hayes improvements in previous articles, and he’s continued to improve with every PA since. He’s tapping into a power stroke and continues to hit the ball very hard. The most intriguing thing about Hayes right now is how he is pulling the ball much more often than he was last year.

These are good signs. Draft Hayes today.

Astros and Red Sox

A beautiful run environment with two mystery box pitchers. Both of these teams can be drafted for pennies in drafts today and have as good a range of outcomes as any team playing on the main slate. Chris Sale has not been bad this season, but I’m betting on the Astros getting the best of him today. Cristian Javier lost his mojo and never recovered it. You can take anyone on the Red Sox you want today against him. Including Pablo Reyes, who has been a great story for Boston this year.

I’ll be back before lock with some individual player ranks today. For now, enjoy the lobbies, and best of luck with your remaining best ball squads!

Nez

Blues Jays (Kevin Gausman, RHP) @ Orioles (Dean Kremer, RHP)
Nationals (MacKenzie Gore, LHP) @ Yankees (Luis Severino, RHP)
Dodgers (Clayton Kershaw, LHP) @ Guardians (Xzavion Curry, RHP)
Mets (Jose Quintana, LHP) @ Braves (Charlie Morton, RHP)
Red Sox (Chris Sale, LHP) @ Astros (Jose Urquidy, RHP)

Pitching Preferences

• Clayton Kershaw
• Kevin Gausman
• MacKenzie Gore
• Charlie Morton
• Jose Quintana
• Chris Sale
• Jose Urquidy

Favorite Teams

• Braves
• Dodgers
• Nationals
• Mets
• Blue Jays

Good Wednesday morning! Two slates today, with this one shaping up to be pretty cut and dry. So rather than talk about those obvious, lets try to paint a picture where the have-nots take it home tonight.

Orioles vs. Kevin Kausman

Gausman has a chance to strengthen his case for AL Cy Young in a major way today if he manages to shut down the young bright and bushy-eyed Orioles. Both Cy Young races have been pretty disappointing. Close races, but with the performance of pitchers across league being below the levels of years past, it’s not grabbing my attention. But let’s get into the Orioles.

They’re priced as an afterthought on today’s slate. Two ways to gain leverage on the field (this applies to every under-drafted team)

• Stack 4-5 players from the team
• Stack 2-3 underdrafted players at the end of drafts

Both can be effective, with the main leverage point being the under-drafted guys from an already under-drafted team. Gausman hasn’t been perfect this year, and as readers of the sheet know, we love the Orioles against RHP in their home park.

Guardians vs. Clayton Kershaw

Hmm… on second thought, maybe just don’t even go here. But if you want to, here’s your right handed bats likely to make the starting lineup tonight. I can confidently say I’m not going here in drafts.

Mets always seem to take down slates with 5-man stacks. Charlie Morton is a good pitcher, but he can always have a blow up game. Franisco Lindor‘s ADP is suspiciously high, but I still suspect the Mets will be a low owned stack today.

After doing a handful of drafts, I can confidently say the Nationals are not going high enough. I’ll be pairing them in different combinations today.

Best of luck everyone! Let’s take one down today.

Nez

Cardinals (Adam Wainwright, RHP) @ Pirates (Johan Oviedo, RHP)
Blue Jays (Yusei Kikuchi, LHP) @ Orioles (Grayson Rodriguez, RHP)
Nationals (Josiah Gray, RHP) @ Yankees (Carlos Rodon, LHP)
Dodgers (Bobby Miller, RHP) @ Guardians (Noah Syndergaard, RHP)
Mets (Tylor Megill, RHP) @ Braves (Bryce Elder, RHP)
Red Sox (Tanner Houck, RHP) @ Astros (Justin Verlander, RHP)
Mariners (Bryan Woo, RHP) @ White Sox (Mike Clevinger, RHP)
Twins (Bailey Ober, RHP) @ Brewers (Wade Miley, LHP)
Reds (Graham Ashcraft, RHP) @ Angels (Lucas Giolito, RHP)
Royals (Angel Zerpa, LHP) @ Athletics (TBD)
Rangers (Jon Gray, RHP) @ D-backs (Zac Gallen, RHP)
Marlins (Jesus Luzardo, LHP) @ Padres (Blake Snell, LHP)

Pitching Preferences

• Blake Snell
• Zac Gallen
• Bobby Miller
• Yusei Kikuchi
• Justin Verlander
• Lucas Giolito
• Grayson Rodriguez
• Bailey Ober
• Wade Miley
• Johan Oviedo

Favorite Teams

• Braves
• Astros
• Dodgers
• Pirates
• Padres
• Royals
• Athletics
• Mariners
• Nationals

Good morning afternoon! We’ve got a 12 game slate that’s loaded with pitching and currently rocking some of the strangest ADP I’ve seen in a while.

Part of why today’s post has taken so long today is I’m having trouble removing myself from draft lobbies while the Astros go as late as they do. Any time they are at home facing a mid Righty, I’m all in. There is zero resistance in the lobbies today that is preventing you from stacking the Astros up and down.

In addition to the Astros – my Pirates are projecting extremely well today against Adam Wainwright. I would expect Ji-Hwan Bae to lead off (as does the field given his ADP), but I’m extremely interested in Ke’Bryan Hayes. Prior to his first IL stint this season, Hayes was rocking a red hot statcast page. There was reason to believe a breakout was coming. Then he gets hurt, and his numbers took a hit because of that. Now, clearly as healthy as he’s been all season, he is tattooing the baseball. He’s my favorite Pirate to build around today as he’s seeing the ball incredibly well. For reference, his slash line since returning from the IL August 2nd is .279/.315/.500.

The Braves are worthy of their price tags today. I’m taking Ronald Acuna Jr 1.01 today given the opposing pitcher and the weather. Matt Olson has a strong case for 1.03 as well.

It’s scary, but I think I’m fading Zac Gallen today. Mostly because I want Corey Seager on 1/3 of all my teams today. This is going to be an excellent series as the AL West divisional race heats up.

Haven’t talked pitchers much, because the options today all seem exceptional. I would to have the most exposure to Bobby Miller if I can help it today, but I’m not sure how likely that will be as I’m almost always waiting until the last round to take my SP.

Best of luck today! Hope you guys enjoy these. See you tomorrow.

Nez