Cardinals (Drew Rom, LHP) @ Pirates (Thomas Hatch, RHP)
Mets (David Peterson, LHP) @ Braves (Allan Winans, RHP)
Red Sox (James Paxton, LHP) @ Astros (Cristian Javier, RHP)
Mariners (Luis Castillo, RHP) @ White Sox (Touki Toussaint, RHP)
Reds (Graham Ashcraft, RHP) @ Angels (Lucas Giolito, RHP)
Royals (Tucker Davidson, LHP) @ A’s (Paul Blackburn, RHP)
Rangers (Jordan Montgomery, LHP) @ D-backs (Joe Mantiply, LHP)
Marlins (Ryan Weathers, LHP) @ Padres (Michael Wacha, RHP)

Pitching Preferences

• Michael Wacha
• Jordan Montgomery
• Luis Castillo
• Lucas Giolito
• James Paxton

Favorite Teams

• Braves
• Red Sox
• Rangers
• Mariners
• Padres
• Cardinals
• Mets
• A’s

Good Monday morning! Apologies for my extended and spotty absence over the last couple weeks. Life EV was being scooped and I hadn’t had much time to sit down and mull over baseball slates. But that’s all changed! As I am back to my usual daily routine of nothing but Underdog Fantasy. You’re welcome.

Today’s slate is pretty gnarly. No slam dunk pitching spots, but we do have some offenses in really nice spots. This is a big time “wait for pitcher” slate for me if we’re going to get Michael Wacha in the 6th round all day today.

I will be mixing stacks of all the teams mentioned above. My largest stance today will be Corey Seager. I want him to be my highest owned player by the end of the day.

We’re also one whole week into the best ball playoffs. Per CBS, here are the likeliest two start pitchers this week along with their ownership percentage:

• Luis Castillo (13%)
• Blake Snell (13%)
• Zac Gallen (16%)
• Justin Verlander (7%)
• Aaron Nola (9%)
• Jordan Montgomery (12%)
• Aaron Civale (N/A)
• Cristian Javier (6%)
• James Paxton (N/A)
• Carlos Rodon (N/A)

There are some very big names on here. If you haven’t checked out the Advance Rate data yet for the Dinger, you can do so here.
While you’re reading my words, I might as well give you some insight on my own advance rates after one scoring period of the quarterfinals.

Dinger: 2/32
Perfect Game: 2/2

We like the Perfect Game start! I have thankfully some pretty healthy rosters for both of those teams, so I am feeling cautiously optimistic for those teams. As for the Dinger? I feel (obviously) less bullish. I knew this from the beginning as I was looking at my advanced teams prior to the QF that my teams were very much not strong. Riddled with injuries and underperforming players, I felt as though I was kissing my Dinger chances good bye before the playoffs even started. All it takes is one to win, but I’m not getting my hopes up.

I’ll have some player ranks added here once we get starting lineups. Check back around 4PM ET for those!

Nez

Mid-day Batter Ranks

1. Ronald Acuna Jr
2. Corey Seager
3. Paul Goldschmidt
4. Rafael Devers
5. Fernando Tatis Jr
6. Julio Rodriguez edit: OUT
7. Triston Casas
8. Matt Olson
9. Austin Riley
10. Bobby Witt Jr
11. Adolis Garcia
12. Ha-seong Kim
13. Yordan Alvarez
14. Juan Soto
15. Nolan Arenado
16. Jose Altuve
17. Tyler O’Neill
18. Tommy Edman
19. Ke’Bryan Hayes
20. Pete Alonso
21. Kyle Tucker
22. Brandon Nimmo
23. Michael Harris
24. Alex Verdugo
25. Masataka Yoshida
26. Luis Robert Jr
27. Cal Raliegh
28. Zack Gelof
29. Esteury Ruiz
30. Marcus Semien
31. Jorge Soler
32. Chas McCormick
33. Andrew McCutchen
34. Bryan Reynolds
35. Liover Peguero

Red Sox (James Paxton, LHP) @ Nationals (MacKenzie Gore, LHP)
Phillies (Aaron Nola, RHP) @ Blue Jays (Kevin Gausman, RHP)
Yankees (Randy Vasquez, RHP) @ Braves (Charlie Morton, RHP)
Angles (Reid Detmers, LHP) @ Rangers (Jon Gray, RHP)
White Sox (Mike Clevinger, RHP) @ Cubs (Javier Assad, RHP)
Mariners (Luis Castillo, RHP) @ Royals (James McArthur, RHP)
Orioles (Dean Kremer, RHP) @ Padres (Blake Snell, LHP)
Brewers (Wade Miley, LHP) @ Dodgers (Clayton Kershaw, LHP)

Pitching Preferences

• Aaron Nola
• Clayton Kershaw
• Kevin Gausman
• Blake Snell
• Charlie Morton
• MacKenzie Gore
• Luis Castillo
• Wade Miley
• Dean Kremer
• James Paxton

Favorite Teams

• Braves
• Mariners
• Cubs
• Rangers
• Padres
• White Sox
• Dodgers
• Royals

Good morning! It’s Wednesday, and we’re staring directly in the face of an 8 game main slate. We have a very solid group of starters going today that will certainly shake up Dinger Round 2 lobbies. Due to these solid starters, the decision tree for drafting seems very cut and dry. Avoid the good starters, target the Braves, and bump up the bats in Chicago and KC.

In KC: James McArthur is starting as the opener for the Royals. Bullpen games stink from a fantasy and real-life baseball standpoint, but I’ll take a lot of Mariners today. I’m sure that will be a popular stack today.

In Chicago: Strong winds, and probably two bad pitchers (once we get clarification on who is on the hill for the Cubs today). Give me all the Cubs, LBJ, and Eloy.

The Rangers are playing some inspired ball lately. They’re 8-2 in their last 10, and have been greatly enjoying beating up on the division rival LA Angels. Reid Detmers last two starts have been abysmal, and I don’t see a reason to think he will come out on fire against the Rangers tonight. Corey Seager is making a strong case to be 1.02/1.03 in every contest moving forward. He is the best hitter in the American League right now.

One player I want heavy exposure to today as well is Fernando Tatis Jr. Jon on the Badge Bros had mentioned about how unlucky Tatis has been lately. His BA on barreled balls is hilariously low, but he is starting to get some better results his way. He seems like a priority one-off for me today.

Best of luck everyone. Thank you for reading! I plan on making some changes to this some day soon, going from a blog style to a newsletter. Appreciate everyone who checks this out.

Nez

Red Sox (Nick Pivetta, RHP) @ Nationals (Josiah Gray, RHP)
Phillies (Zack Wheeler, RHP) @ Blue Jays (Yusei Kikuchi, LHP)
Pirates (Bailey Falter, LHP) @ Mets (David Peterson, LHP)
Yankees (Luis Severino, RHP) @ Braves (Bryce Elder, RHP)
Tigers (Alex Faedo, RHP) @ Twins (Bailey Ober, RHP)
Athletics (Spenser Watkins, RHP) @ Cardinals (Dakota Hudson, RHP)
Angels (Lucas Giolito, RHP) @ Rangers (Jordan Montgomery, LHP)
White Sox (Touki Toussaint, RHP) @ Cubs (Kyle Hendricks, RHP)
Mariners (Emerson Hancock, RHP) @ Royals (Jordan Lyles, RHP)
D-backs (Joe Mantiply, LHP) @ Rockies (Ty Blach, LHP)
Orioles (Jack Flaherty, RHP) @ Padres (Michael Wacha, RHP)
Rays (Zack Littell, RHP) @ Giants (Jakob Junis, RHP)
Brewers (Adrian Houser, RHP) @ Dodgers (Bobby Miller, RHP)

Pitching Preferences

• Zack Wheeler
• Jordan Montgomery
• Bobby Miller
• Kyle Hendricks
• Jack Flaherty
• Michael Wacha
• Dakota Hudson

Favorite Teams

• Braves
• Dodgers
• D-backs
• Cardinals
• Rockies
• Cubs
• Twins

Good evening! I am terribly sorry for the delay in the return of Nez Takes this week. I returned from an excellent bachelor trip in San Diego that featured a round of golf at Torrey Pines South and enough degeneracy that I actually contracted Covid, per two of my at home tests. I’m fine, just a bit weary. On top of some at home things to be taking care of, I am late but I am here, and damn happy to be.

We have a pretty funky slate if I do say so myself. We talked about it at length on the Badge Bros today on Underdog Fantasy HQ. We have one stud pitcher that is not going in the top 3 overall (Zack Wheeler). We have the Braves facing the Luis Severino led Yankees. We have the Cardinals at home facing the Spenser Watkins led A’s. There are many, many spots the field will gravitate to, and they are correct to do so. But we’re not trying to do what everyone else does. And I’m not trying to be correct. I’m trying to win.

How does one win today? Is it as easy as saying something like that with conviction? If it was, everyone would have a blog, and I would be winning a lot more often! But alas, I am a mere mortal compared to the goats (iykyk). How do I plan on winning today?

P: Zack Wheeler/Jordan Montgomery

• One of these pitchers will end up on my winning roster. With Wheeler, I’ll build a stack consisting of 3 or 4 teammates of a team that I feel is overlooked by the field, with a pairing of an overlooked one off. I’m staying away from all chalk when drafting Wheeler.
• With Montgomery, I’m going to try for two pairs of stacks and a one off from an overlooked game. If the chalk hits, and Montgomery deals, that one-off piece could be the difference maker.

Bats: Rockies, Michael Harris, and Twins

• Joe Mantiply is “starting” in a bullpen game. D-backs are 2-8 in their last 10. I’m playing the trends that people might not be seeing and going in on the Rockies at Coors. It is Coors, after all.
• Michael Harris will be on this team. A threat to steal base and a near lock to score a run today, he looks to provide one of the safest floors on the slate at a discount.
• One or more Minnesota Twin will be on my winning team. Faedo is known for his reverse splits, but I’ll gladly take lefty sticks against him today too. Lewis, Wallner, Polanco, Correa, and/or Jeffers will be making up my stacks.

Well, that was fun. Let’s see how those predictions turn out. I hope to bring tomorrows edition much sooner than this one was delivered. Best of luck everyone!

Nez

Braves (Max Fired, LHP) @ Pirates (Quinn Priester, RHP)
Astros (Cristian Javier, RHP) @ Orioles (Jack Flaherty, RHP)
Royals (Jordan Lyles, RHP) @ Red Sox (Nick Pivetta, RHP)
Cubs (Kyle Hendricks, RHP) @ Mets (David Peterson, LHP)
Blue Jays (Kevin Gausman, RHP) @ Guardians (Logan Allen, LHP)
Yankees (Luis Severino, RHP) @ White Sox (Mike Clevinger, RHP)
Giants (Ryan Walker, RHP) @ Angels (Shohei Ohtani, RHP)
Dodgers (Bobby Miller, RHP) @ D-backs (Merrill Kelly, RHP)
Padres (Yu Darvish, RHP) @ Mariners (Emerson Hancock, RHP)

Pitching Preferences

• Kevin Gausman
• Yu Darvish
• Max Fried
• Logan Allen
• Kyle Hendricks
• Nick Pivetta
• Bobby Miller

Favorite Teams

• Braves
• Orioles
• Red Sox
• Yankees
• Astros
• Cubs
• Dodgers

Good afternoon! Happy hump day. It’s been an interesting week of baseball. I’m sweating my borderline best ball advancers profusely as we close out the regular season this week, as I anxiously await the first round payments to repurpose into more BBM and WW drafts. It’s good for the economy. Hurts nobody!

Yesterday there was a lot of offense. I was so very much looking forward to Endy Rodriguez being a part of the Pirates offensive output, but he unfortunately did not crack the starting lineup as Mitch Keller needed his boy Jason Delay behind the dish. I’m significantly less bullish about the Pirates against Max Fried, so I won’t spend much more time talking about them in this post. But just know I’m going back to the Endy well a few times today to make up for money I should’ve won last night.

The pitching options today don’t necessarily move me. There are obvious tiers to all of the starters today, and if I could have it my way I’d be overweight on Gausman without sacrificing too much ceiling for my bats, but that doesn’t seem ideal today.

The Braves take on Quinn Priester of the Pirates. Ronald Acuna Jr took a pitch to the elbow (guard) yesterday, and you would’ve thought he was hit with a 120 MPH ball to an unprotected area of the body. He got x-rays, they came back negative. I expect him to play, possibly at DH today. The real story here is Quinn Priester though. He’s not good, folks.

He doesn’t throw hard, he sports a 1.78 WHIP, doesn’t strike guys out, and has an ERA over 8 with an xFIP over 5. There’s simply nothing redeeming about QP, unfortunately for Pirates fans. Until he adds velocity or a sinker, he’s going to get shelled. Insert the Atlanta Braves! They’re rocking an implied run total of 6 today. I would take that “higher” today.

Next up on “Pitchers who are Food for opposing bats” is Cristian Javier. In his last seven starts, Javier has only record 18 outs once. He has given up less than 3 runs once (2 ER @ Oakland, lol), and has walked 12.7% of batters during this span. He’s pitching poorly, folks! And the Orioles are good. Orioles against a RHP at home is always on the menu, and it’s something I’m very excited to get to today.

Lastly, our boy Jordan Lyles is facing the Red Sox at Fenway Park today. Mandatory posting of this meme is required any time I mention Jordan Lyles.

He is unfortunately cooked food today against the Sox and their slew of lefty sticks today. This could be the Jordan Lyles masterclass that comes out every few months, but I am not counting on that today. Give me all the Red Sox, especially Masataka Yoshida, whose ADP is an insulting 28.3 today.

Best of luck, friends. Check out the Badge Bros YouTube channel for a team by team breakdown at 3PM CT. Thank you!
Nez

Astros (Framber Valdez, LHP) @ Orioles (Grayson Rodriguez, RHP)
Braves (Yonny Chirinos, RHP) @ Pirates (Mitch Keller, RHP)
Royals (Brady Singer, RHP) @ Red Sox (Kutter Crawford, RHP)
Cubs (Jameson Taillon, RHP) @ Mets (Carlos Carrasco, RHP)
Blue Jays (Yusei Kikuchi, LHP) @ Guardians (Tanner Bibee, RHP)
Yankees (Clarke Schmidt, RHP) @ White Sox (Touki Toussaint, RHP)
Rockies (Kyle Freeland, LHP) @ Brewers (Wade Miley, LHP)
Giants (Scott Alexander, LHP) @ Angels (Lucas Giolito, RHP)
Dodgers (Julio Urias, LHP) @ D-backs (Brandon Pfaadt, RHP)
Padres (Nick Martinez, RHP) @ Mariners (Logan Gilbert, RHP)
Rangers (Max Scherzer, RHP) @ Athletics (JP Sears, LHP)

Pitching Preferences

• Max Scherzer
• Framber Valdez
• Yusei Kikuchi
• Wade Miley
• Julio Urias
• Logan Gilbert
• JP Sears
• Nick Martinez
• Grayson Rodriguez
• Lucas Giolito
• Kutter Crawford
• Clarke Schmidt
• Brady Singer
• Mitch Keller

Favorite Teams

• Braves
• Dodgers
• Cubs
• Mets
• Yankees
• Pirates
• Rangers
• Astros
• Brewers
• Red Sox
• White Sox
• Giants
• Royals

Good morning! It’s the real Monday of the week – Tuesday. But fret not, we have a really nice 11-game slate on tap today to ease your blues. As I was writing out the starters, and listing pitchers + teams, I found this to be a slate that will be advantageous for getting different (shocker!).

Any time the Braves and Dodgers are the perceived best matchups on the slate, it’s time to implement the bits. #NeverDodgers, #NeverBraves are in full effect today. Again these are just bits and I’m not actually full fading either team, but it’s easy to find yourself registering for draft after draft chasing these teams stacks and fighting for pieces of the lineup along with the rest of the room, and missing the forest for the trees in the process.

I’ll happily build lineups around different matchups today. Brandon Pfaadt is a rookie who has not gotten off to a great start this season, but possesses quality stuff that is likely bound to stick around the majors. And then there’s Mitch Keller against the Braves. What a disaster he’s been in the second half of 2023. I’m not promising he’s turning anything around, there’s nothing to look at in his last few starts that would indicate that. The field knows this too, and sees him as food for the Braves. I’m just suggesting we play the probabilities and get comfortable not chasing Braves stacks when there’s lots of other fun spots to look to instead.

For starters, lets look at the Pirates themselves! This would probably be a better play if they hadn’t just chased Spencer Strider off the mound in 2.2 innings last night, but I don’t think the field will be tripping over themselves to take Pirates today on an 11-game slate. I like them today mostly for one player – Endy Rodriguez. For the unfamiliar, he went on a torrid stretch in the minor leagues last season. This year in the minors however he got off to a slow start, and was on a serious heater prior to being called up. He’s putting very good wood on the baseball as of late, with a 135 wRC+ in his last 47 PA. He’s not a name people are looking for, and I’m looking to take him + a few teammates against Yonny Chirinos and the Braves today. You heard it hear first, folks.

Another team I’m targeting today is the Yankees at home against Touki Toussaint. Aaron Judge is playing baseball, albeit not at 100%, at home against a not good pitcher. If he homers last night, he’s a top three pick today. Granted he’s currently the fifth player off the board as of writing this, he is going to fall in some lobbies today. Definitely someone I’m going to be taking with frequency until he blows up, because it’s only a matter of time. He’s fun to stack today with Gleyber Torres and Jake Bauers. I’m not taking Giancarlo Stanton because he is a pinch run candidate and a home run or bust because he’s literally speed walking around the bases right now. Go ahead and bookmark him for a multi-HR game tonight now that I’ve made that call though.

Let’s talk pitching! Max Scherzer goes in the top three right now in every draft. I’m probably not passing up on Acuna Jr at the 1.01 the first few times I roll it though. But Scherzer is very obviously the most attractive option at pitcher today. I’ll mix him as I get different with my batters later in the day.

Framber Valdez get the Orioles at Camden Yards. Lefty pitching plays very well here. I’m taking him with confidence today, he will be a 15%+ player for me.

As most of you know I am a JP Sears heart throb. Taking on the Astros today, Sears has his work cut out for him. Gaining leverage at pitcher really takes a lot to go right for you, and with 22 to choose from today, he’s hard to make a case for outside of Cycles. But I would certainly consider him in The Cycle.

Lucas Giolito gets the G-men today. I am on record loving the Giants vs RHP, so this is a tough call for me. I think Giolito is very fairly priced as SP7 currently. He’s fine as a last round pitcher in the main slate, but I’d be looking to stack against him today in LA where the balls just travel further. Source: trust me bro (and their park factor numbers but that’s just run environment not raw distance traveled of the baseball, which I made up. But it certainly seems that way!)

Best of luck today everyone! I’ll have an update later today with some Batter Ranks. To be honest they’re not my favorite to do, but I had some players on the ranks yesterday in my top 5 lineup from last night, so maybe I just ride the heater.

GLHF!

Nez

Braves (Spencer Strider, RHP) @ Pirates (Osvaldo Bido, RHP)
Royals (Cole Ragans, LHP) @ Red Sox (Brayan Bello, RHP)
Cubs (Drew Smyly, LHP) @ Mets (Kodai Senga, RHP)
Blue Jays (Hyun Jin Ryu, LHP) @ Guardians (Gavin Williams, RHP)
Yankees (Gerrit Cole, RHP) @ White Sox (Dylan Cease, RHP)
Rockies (Peter Lambert, RHP) @ Brewers (Freddy Peralta, RHP)
Giants (Logan Webb, RHP) @ Angels (Patrick Sandoval, LHP)
Rangers (Dane Dunning, RHP) @ Athletics (Ken Waldichuk, LHP)

Pitcher Preferences

• Spencer Strider
• Gerrit Cole
• Dane Dunning
• Freddie Peralta
• Brayan Bello
• Patrick Sandoval
• Dylan Cease

Favorite Teams

• Braves
• Red Sox
• Brewers
• Rangers
• Mets

Good Monday morning! Long time no see. I was away in Ocean City, Maryland last week with my family touching some sand, catching some rays, but still remaining tapped in on baseball, of course. I was itching to deep dive every day, don’t get me wrong, but the hiatus was nice.

Today’s slate provides us with four standout targets in the Braves, Red Sox, Brewers, and Rangers, along with two very strong pitching options in Gerrit Cole and Spencer Strider. The intrinsic value of these two pitchers requires little explanation; their floors are elite. However, it’s important to look at them respectively with the slate in context. How do they compare to their peers? Freddy Peralta and Dane Dunning both have pristine matchups today. I’m still opting for Strider and Cole early in my drafts, but these two are really solid options beyond them. I’d even take Patrick Sandoval shortly after if I missed out because of his matchup against the Giants, despite pitching in LA where the offense tends to flow more easily.

I have, as usual lately, some ranks here of individual batters. I don’t recommend drafting off of these blindly – you should, IMO, prioritize stacking more often than not in your builds. These may help guide your stacks in the direction I feel is advantageous.

Batter Ranks

1. Ronald Acuna Jr
2. Shohei Ohtani
3. Matt Olson
4. Corey Seager
5. Christian Yelich
6. Adolis Garcia
7. Aaron Judge
8. Marcus Semien
9. Ozzie Albies
10. Austin Riley
11. Sal Frelick
12. Cody Bellinger
13. Bobby Witt Jr
14. Rafael Devers
15. Justin Turner
16. Ezequiel Duran
17. Luis Robert Jr
18. Sean Murphy
19. William Contreras
20. Rob Refsnyder
21. Adam Duvall
22. MJ Melendez
23. Ian Happ
24. Eddie Rosario
25. Nathaniel Lowe
26. Pete Alonso
27. Francisco Lindor
28. Vladimir Guerrero Jr
29. George Springer
30. Masataka Yoshida

I’ll be honest, I had about 4 paragraphs written today prior to the Badge Bros show. I was really on a tear this morning. However, my draft unfortunately did not save, and it was unsalvageable. Tomorrow I vow to bring you more than this. For now, let me just say – today feels pretty flat. I will be sprinkling in some of the “bad” teams today to gain some leverage. I don’t anticipate onslaughting the likes of the White Sox, Rockies, Pirates, or Athletics. But a couple 2-man stacks from these teams mixed with some best player available/other strong 2-man stacks? Absolutely.

Best of luck today! I will be back tomorrow with hopefully a nice win under my belt.

Phillies (Zack Wheeler, RHP) @ Pirates (Mitch Keller, RHP)
Yankees (Gerrit Cole, RHP) @ Orioles (Grayson Rodriguez, RHP)
Angels (Lucas Giolito, RHP) @ Blue Jays (Kevin Gausman, RHP)
Nationals (MacKenzie Gore, LHP) @ Mets (Max Scherzer, RHP)
Guardians (TBD) @ White Sox (Touki Toussaint, RHP)
Brewers (Adrian Houser, RHP) @ Braves (Yonny Chirinos, RHP)
Rays (Shane McClanahan, LHP) @ Astros (Cristian Javier, RHP)
Twins (Sonny Gray, RHP) @ Royals (Brady Singer, RHP)
Cubs (Hayden Wesneski, RHP) @ Cardinals (Jordan Montgomery, LHP)
Athletics (J.P. Sears? LHP) @ Rockies (Kyle Freeland, LHP)
Mariners (Logan Gilbert, RHP) @ D-backs (Tommy Henry, LHP)
Rangers (Dane Dunning, RHP) @ Padres (Joe Musgrove, RHP)
Reds (Brandon Williamson, LHP) @ Dodgers (Bobby Miller, RHP)
Red Sox (Kutter Crawford, RHP) @ Giants (Logan Webb, RHP)

Pitching Preferences

• Gerrit Cole
• Zack Wheeler
• Logan Webb
• Kevin Gausman
• Max Scherzer
• Shane McClanahan
• Joe Musgrove
• Mitch Keller
• Sonny Gray
• Logan Gilbert
• Jordan Montgomery
• Lucas Giolito
• MacKenzie Gore

Favorite Teams

• Braves
• Dodgers
• Reds
• Cardinals
• Mariners
• Twins
• Rays
• Yankees
• Guardians
• Athletics
• Mets
• Brewers
• Giants
• Rockies

Batter Ranks

1. Ronald Acuna Jr
2. Shohei Ohtani
3. Aaron Judge
4. Mookie Betts
5. Freddie Freeman
6. Julio Rodriguez
7. Jose Ramirez
8. Paul Goldschmidt
9. Edouard Julien
10. Fernando Tatis Jr
11. Juan Soto
12. Corbin Carroll
13. Will Smith
14. J.D. Martinez
15. Ozzie Albies
16. Austin Riley
17. Sean Murphy
18. Nolan Arenado
19. Christian Yelich
20. Sal Frelick
21. Tyler O’Neill
22. Jordan Walker
23. Christopher Morel
24. Nico Hoerner
25. Henry Davis
26. Kyle Schwarber
27. Ramon Laureano
28. Wander Franco
29. Randy Arozarena
30. Pete Alonso

Good afternoon! There are (approximately) one million baseball games today. The slate is set up in a really interesting way however, such that the field is almost certainly going to treat it more like an 8 game slate for pitchers and batters, respectively.

There are an overwhelming number of options at SP today. If you think there’s a separator amongst the group such as Gerrit Cole or Zack Wheeler for instance, you can take them with your first or second pick and build around them fairly easily because of the size of the slate. However, you also have a dozen other SPs after those two go off the board that are likely to put up decent numbers as well. I’m going to most likely wait. But I also want my contrarian stacks to contain some Gerrit Cole today. My Pirates fandom won’t allow me to take Wheeler on a slate this size.

Now, for the sticks today. With good (perceived) pitching, comes low ownership of their opponents. I can guarantee you that at least one of my favorite pitchers today is going to get blown up. It could even be Gerrit Cole! And that stack/those players that contribute to said blow up are likely to be extremely low owned. Why would the average drafter want to stack O’s against Gerrit Cole when these other matchups exist instead? The answer is obviously leverage, but it’s going to be really difficult for people to get on to these tougher matchups today. Myself included! But here is what I would do if I was trying to find ownership leverage.

• Stack Giants against Kutter Crawford

This stack will be low owned and features a non-elite pitcher on the mound for the Red Sox. Oracle Park (SF) is a pitcher’s park, and Crawford hasn’t been terrible, but I love Giants against RHP as my loyal readers know well.

• Stack Royals against Sonny Gray

Sonny Gray will be taken often in drafts today. The Royals are bad, and Gray has a nice low ERA of 3.15. What the Royals do have on their side is nice weather, and some easy to stack bats at the top of the order.

• Stack Athletics and/or Rockies in Coors

It’s hard to envision a worse combination of teams in Coors. But that is what makes this series so exciting. Nobody will be interested in either of these teams. I’ll dabble in some combinations tonight, and if they both flop, that makes tomorrow even more enticing to go back to this same gross well.

Baseball contests are tough. 14 game slates are hard. We can’t just rely on volume to cover our bases. I wouldn’t make your entire portfolio out of high leverage low ownership plays, but save some room for a few in case things go awry today.

I’ll be off all next week as I’ll be on vacation with my family in Maryland. I will still be in the BR streets most likely, but not holding myself to any Take Sheets during that time. I appreciate your understanding. Lets win something today.

Nez

Nationals (Josiah Gray, RHP) @ Mets (Kodai Senga, RHP)
Cubs (Justin Steele, LHP) @ Cardinals (Miles Mikolas, RHP)
Guardians (Tanner Bibee, RHP) @ White Sox (Dylan Cease, RHP)

Pitching Preferences

• Kodai Senga
• Dylan Cease
• Tanne Bibee
• Justin Steele
• Josiah Gray
• Miles Mikolas

Favorite Teams

• Cubs
• Cardinals
• Mets
• Guardians
• White Sox
• Nationals

Batter Ranks

1. Paul Goldschmidt
2. Pete Alonso
3. Cody Bellinger
4. Jose Ramirez
5. Nico Hoerner
6. Dansby Swanson
7. Brandon Nimmo
8. Luis Robert
9. Eloy Jimenez
10. Nolan Arenado
11. Ian Happ
12. Josh Naylor
13. Willson Contreras
14. Seiya Suzuki
15. Christopher Morel
16. Mike Tauchman
17. CJ Abrams
18. Lane Thomas
19. Francisco Lindor
20. Tyler O’Neill
21. Jordan Walker
22. Jeff McNeil
23. Steven Kwan
24. Josh Bell
25. Andrew Benintendi
26. Dominic Smith
27. Joey Meneses
28. Jeimer Candelario
29. Yoan Moncada
30. Miles Mastrobuoni

Good afternoon y’all. The Pirates just traded away Carlos Santana for an 18 year old short stop in developmental ball. Such is life as a fan of this cursed franchise. On the bright side, three game slate today! Very rare, very fun.

What you think about the micro on this slate is essentially meaningless, in my opinion. I’m not full fading any team today with the volume I intend on playing. I’m going to have a bit of everything today, but I have my leans.

First off is the Nationals. I want pieces of them today because they appear to have the worst matchup today, and it’s not a hot take to think so. Senga is good, but he has a Walks issue. This can always manifest itself in ugly ways, and the wind is blowing out in New York today at 14 MPH. The leverage here will be stronger than it should be.

I also want to mix in Guardians and White Sox a good bit as well. Bibee and Cease are going to be drafted in nearly every lobby and are both equally unappealing on the surface. But the probability that one of these teams ends up with the most runs scored today is not too far off from the Cardinals or Cubs. Cease is susceptible to walks as well, and the Guardians put bat to ball pretty well, albeit not at high exit velocities. That said, it’s not hard to envision them having a nice day.

On the flip side, Bibee is a nice young pitcher, and the White Sox are not a good team as a whole. They also just shipped off Lucas Giolito for two prospects from the Angels. Say what you will about how that will affect them today, but I want pieces of this lineup surrounding Luis Robert and/or Eloy Jimenez today.

If you’re not drafting heavy volume, I’d go for the 6-leg parlay lineup or stack the three teams I’ve mentioned above for some leverage over the field. I can see today getting chopped up top, but I’m hoping it’s me or one of you all there solo. Good luck today!

Nez

Mets (Jose Quintana, LHP) @ Yankees (Carlos Rodon, LHP)
Braves (Spencer Strider, RHP) @ Red Sox (Brayan Bello, RHP)
Rangers (Andrew Heaney, LHP) @ Astros (Framber Valdez, LHP)
Cubs (Marcus Stroman, RHP) @ White Sox (Lance Lynn, RHP)
Athletics (Hogan Harris, LHP) @ Giants (Alex Wood, LHP)

No weather concerns today!

Pitching Preferences

• Framber Valdez
• Spencer Strider
• Marcus Stroman
• Lance Lynn
• Carlos Rodon
• Jose Quintana
• Alex Wood
• Brayan Bello

Favorite Teams

• Cubs
• Braves
• Yankees
• Astros
• Red Sox
• Giants
• Mets
• White Sox
• Rangers
• Athletics

Batter Ranks

1. Ronald Acuna Jr
2. Matt Olson
3. Pete Alonso
4. Cody Bellinger
5. Dansby Swanson
6. Nico Hoerner
7. Kyle Tucker
8. Austin Riley
9. Alex Bregman
10. Chas McCormick
11. Wilmer Flores
12. Giancarlo Stanton
13. Luis Robert Jr
14. Ozzie Albies
15. Rafael Devers
16. Christopher Morel
17. J.D. Davis
18. Gleyber Torres
19. Masataka Yoshida
20. Triston Casas
21. Yordan Alvarez
22. Jose Altuve
23. Eloy Jimenez
24. Marcus Semien
25. Adolis Garcia

Good morning! We have a beautiful five game slate today for the main slate, featuring two aces and some fun ball parks. Let’s jump right into the biggest decision point we have today.

What to do with the Aces?

Valdez and Strider are pretty clearly the 1a and 1b on today’s slate at pitcher. Both however face difficult matchups, with Valdez taking on a still dangerous Rangers lineup sans Seager that has plenty of RHB to attack him with, and Strider facing an onslaught of LHB in a hitters park. The field will not be full fading these offenses, but it’s very safe to assume they will be well underweight. With only 10 teams to draft from today, this is an obvious opportunity to take advantage. Onslaughts, 3-mans, and 2-man stacks for the Rangers and Red Sox should be included today.

Today is a day where I want a little bit of everything. Last night, LAAKE20 took down the main slate with a Mets onslaught. It appears Pete Alonso is back in full health again. They are once again interesting in facing Carlos Rodon, who is coming off a not great outing against the Angels. I don’t anticipate an onslaught taking down the whole thing today, but it’s not impossible that one team goes off four double digit runs while every other game is boring and quiet. I will likely be pairing two stacks in the majority of my builds today, in search of my first bink since June 22nd.

If there’s any teams I’m crossing out of my player pool today, it’s the Yankees, the Athletics, and the Mets. I like Jose Quintana enough that I don’t want to be stacking against him a lot today, and the Mets coming off slate winning performance are liable to be overpriced today. And the Athletics are the Athletics facing a lefty. Maybe I’ll incoporate Brent Rooker on a team or two, but that’s about it.

Best of luck today, I’ll see you in the lobbies.

Nez

Rockies (Austin Gomber, LHP) @ Nationals (Trevor Williams, RHP)
Mets (Justin Verlander, RHP) @ Yankees (Domingo German, RHP)
Royals (Zack Greinke, RHP) @ Guardians (Aaron Civale, RHP)
Braves (Charlie Morton, RHP) @ Red Sox (Nick Pivetta, RHP)
Mariners (George Kirby, RHP) @ Twins (Pablo Lopez, RHP)
Rangers (Cody Bradford, LHP) @ Astros (J.P. France, RHP)
Cubs (Kyle Hendricks, RHP) @ White Sox (Michael Kopech, RHP)
Reds (Andrew Abbott, LHP) @ Brewers (Corbin Brunes, RHP)
Pirates (Rich Hill, LHP) @ Padres (Blake Snell, LHP)
Cardinals (Steven Matz, LHP) @ D-backs (Merrill Kelly, RHP)
Athletics (Ken Waldichuk, LHP) @ Giants (Alex Cobb, RHP)
Blue Jays (Chris Bassitt, RHP) @ Dodgers (Julio Urias, LHP)

Pitching Preferences

• Blake Snell
• Corbin Burnes
• Justin Verlander
• Alex Cobb
• George Kirby
• Pablo Lopez
• Andrew Abbott
• Aaron Civale
• Chris Bassitt
• Julio Urias

Favorite Teams

• Braves
• Padres
• Cubs
• Dodgers
• Nationals
• Red Sox
• Astros
• Guardians
• Rangers
• Giants
• D-backs
• Rockies

Batter Ranks

1. Ronald Acuna Jr
2. Freddie Freeman
3. Fernando Tatis Jr
4. Matt Olson
5. Mookie Betts
6. Cody Bellinger
7. Kyle Tucker
8. Austin Riley
9. Alex Bregman
10. Paul Goldschmidt
11. Manny Machado
12. Juan Soto
13. Corbin Carroll
14. Luis Robert Jr
15. Ha-Seong Kim
16. Jose Ramirez
17. Josh Naylor
18. Max Muncy
19. Chas McCormick
20. Marcus Semien
21. Lane Thomas
22. Masataka Yoshida
23. Jeimer Candelario
24. Ryan McMahon
25. Nolan Jones
26. Xander Bogaerts
27. Ozzie Albies
28. Sean Murphy
29. Dansby Swanson
30. Vladimir Guerrero Jr
31. Nico Hoerner
32. Yordan Alvarez
33. Rafael Devers
34. Triston Casas
35. Nathaniel Lowe
36. Josh Jung
37. Christian Walker
38. Lourdes Gurriel
39. J.D. Davis
40. Nolan Arenado
41. Lars Nootbaar
42. Seiya Suzuki
43. Ian Happ
44. Bo Bichette
45. George Springer
46. Steven Kwan
47. Matt Chapman
48. Marcell Ozuna
49. Henry Davis
50. Andrew McCutchen

Good morning! Yesterday was a really wild slate. The Blue Jays were considered the top stack among various projection systems and completely fell flat, as they have done seemingly all season. The Pirates blew up on Yu Darvish, who was almost unanimously considered the top pitcher. Just a really wacky night that helps humble and reset expectations on every slate. Volume will always be king for this reason – the ability to play probabilities without getting burned on stances.

Today is another weird one. Some iffy weather spots, and not a lot of great pitching. I would really prefer to spread my bullets today on some teams that I feel are going overlooked. Once starting lineups come out and ADP gets more static, these targets will become clearer. For now, the best way to do this is honestly looking at my pitching preferences and target the offenses facing these pitchers. I’m not getting cute or controversial with those selections, people will not be taking the offenses facing these pitchers often. It’s an easy way to get leverage on the field.

I truly do plan on spreading out my exposures today. If there’s one team I want to target more than the others it’s the Cardinals. Merrill Kelly is having a really nice season. His last five starts however have been very average, with an ERA and xFIP of 4. Not terrible, not great. Insert the Cardinals, who in that same range (since June 1st) are 5th in the majors in wRC+ against RHP. This is an offense that on paper matches this statistic. Their collective ADP does not reflect this. I’ve been burned by Merrill Kelly before, and I’ll triple down here and take the Cardinals today to get the best of him. I’ll likely not have any onslaughts until lineups come out, so for now I will stack them with one-offs and contrarian stacks.

Good luck today if you’re drafting! Badge Bros are going live at 12PM ET to break down each game on the slate today. See you there!

Nez

Rockies (Jake Bird, RHP) @ Nationals (Patrick Corbin, LHP)
Royals (Ryan Yarbrough, LHP) @ Guardians (Logan Allen, LHP)
Mariners (Luis Castillo, RHP) @ Twins (Kenta Maeda, RHP)
Rangers (Jon Gray, RHP) @ Astros (Brandon Bielak, RHP)
Reds (Graham Ashcraft, RHP) @ Brewers (Colin Rea, RHP)
Pirates (Quinn Priester, RHP) @ Padres (Yu Darvish, RHP)
Cardinals (Adam Wainright, RHP) @ D-backs (Kyle Nelson, RHP)
Blue Jays (Jose Berrios, RHP) @ Dodgers (Michael Grove, RHP)

Pitching Preferences

• Yu Darvish
• Luis Castillo
• Logan Allen
• Kenta Maeda
• Jose Berrios
• Brandon Bielak
• Patrick Corbin
• Graham Ashcraft

Favorite Teams

• Padres
• Blue Jays
• D-backs
• Cardinals
• Nationals
• Reds
• Dodgers
• Guardians
• Astros
• Rangers

Batter Ranks

1. Juan Soto
2. Corbin Carroll
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr
4. Fernando Tatis Jr
5. Manny Machado
6. Kyle Tucker
7. Freddie Freeman
8. Paul Goldschmidt
9. Mookie Betts
10. Nolan Arenado
11. Lane Thomas
12. Elly De La Cruz
13. CJ Abrams
14. Matt McLain
15. Bo Bichette
16. Ketel Marte
17. Christian Walker
18. Alex Bregman
19. Marcus Semien
20. Christian Yelich
21. Jose Ramirez
22. George Springer
23. Brandon Belt
24. Henry Davis
25. Bryan Reynolds
26. Max Muncy
27. Will Smith
28. Adolis Garcia
29. Xander Bogaerts
30. Lourdes Gurriel
31. TJ Friedl
32. Jake Fraley
33. Spencer Steer
34. Bobby Witt Jr
35. Josh Naylor
36. Teoscar Hernandez
37. Matt Chapman
38. Yordan Alvarez
39. Julio Rodriguez
40. Jeimer Candelario
    

Good Monday morning! I hope you all had good weekends. I saw Barbie on Saturday, and had a great time. A very fun movie that I would see again just to witness the brilliance that is Ryan Gosling as (one of many) Ken. This tweet from b3isbol really sums up his performance to a T.

I’m going to see Oppenheimer today, and I couldn’t be more excited. I’m going to try to cram in some drafts before I go, as I really do enjoy this slate. Not a lot of pitching available, but a lot of big name bats in some pretty good spots.

One matchup in particular I’d like to highlight is Quinn Priester facing the Padres in San Diego. This is not likely to end well for Q. His stuff is just simply not good enough to generate a lot of swing and miss. He started off his start against the Guardians last week with 9 straight outs, most of them being weak ground balls. That looked pretty promising! Until it wasn’t. I had a feeling this matchup would have been difficult. Priester didn’t generate many whiffs in the minors, and the Guardians have the lowest K% in the league as a team. It seemed like a recipe for him to get hit often, and things eventually did go this way as he left having gave up 7 ER in 5.1 IP, with only 2 Ks.

Now, insert the Padres in San Diego. What strikes me as odd is The Bat doesn’t think Q is a dead man walking today. There are 8 team stacks today that it prefers over the Padres. I’m not sure the Underdog streets will reflect that, but I’m making the Padres a target regardless today.

I’m jumping back on the Rangers band wagon today. Without Seager in the lineup, I don’t foresee many drafters going out of their way to stack the Rangers. This feels like decent leverage as they head to Houston to take on Brandon Bielak today, a pitcher who is mid but is currently way over performing his expected stats. He actually sports reverse splits so far in his career, so I’ll hope that isn’t just noise and stack up Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, and Josh Jung today.

Speaking of this game, Yordan Alvarez is expected to return to the lineup today. He’s currently going in the last round in drafts. I would load up on him before the good news creeps in, and take the swap on him if it turns out he isn’t ready. Keep this between us girls, yeah? We don’t need this getting mushed to high heaven.

Good luck to everyone reading this. I’ll post a pick’em for the Xander Bogaerts 0.5 Singles Higher/Lower special today on twitter. Based on the above, the higher seems like the best move. Have a great week all.

Nez

Giants (Alex Wood, LHP) @ Nationals (Jake Irvin, RHP)
Royals (Alec Marsh, RHP) @ Yankees (Clarke Schmidt, RHP)
D-backs (Tommy Henry, LHP) @ Reds (Ben Lively, RHP)
Mets (Kodai Senga, RHP) @ Red Sox (Kutter Crawford, RHP)
Phillies (Ranger Suarez, LHP) @ Guardians (Gavin Williams, RHP)
Dodgers (Tony Gonsolin, RHP) @ Rangers (Andrew Heaney, LHP)
White Sox (Lance Lynn, RHP) @ Twins (Joe Ryan, RHP)
Braves (Mike Soroka, RHP) @ Brewers (Freddy Peralta, RHP)
Pirates (Johan Oviedo, RHP) @ Angels (Shohei Ohtani, RHP)
Astros (Framber Valdez, LHP) @ Athletics (JP Sears, LHP)
Blue Jays (Yusei Kikuchi, LHP) @ Mariners (Bryce Miller, RHP)

Good morning! It’s Friday, so congratulations on making it to the weekend. We’ve got eleven games to draft from today, which is the high end of the goldilocks zone for slate size. I’ve been flirting with first all week, and am starting feel good about my process again. I’ve increased my volume since the All-Star Break, and I regret to inform it’s made a noticeable difference. I’ll expand on that at the end. Let’s get into some lists + musings first.

Pitching Preferences

1. Framber Valdez
2. Joe Ryan
3. JP Sears
4. Yusei Kikuchi
5. Bryce Miller
6. Kodai Senga
7. Ranger Suarez
8. Kutter Crawford
9. Clarke Schmidt
10. Lance Lynn
11. Johan Oviedo
12. Mike Soroka

Favorite Teams

1. D-backs
2. Braves
3. Dodgers
4. Rangers
5. Reds
6. Nationals
7. Yankees
8. Giants
9. Red Sox
10. Mets

Batter Ranks

1. Ronald Acuna Jr
2. Shohei Ohtani
3. Corbin Carroll
4. Mookie Betts
5. Freddie Freeman
6. Matt Olson
7. Austin Riley
8. Matt McLain
9. Spencer Steer
10. Christian Yelich
11. Will Smith
12. Giancarlo Stanton
13. Christian Walker
14. Ketel Marte
15. Corey Seager
16. Nathaniel Lowe
17. Jose Ramirez
18. J.D. Martinez
19. Josh Jung
20. Edourard Julien
21. Carlos Correa
22. Luis Robert Jr
23. Masataka Yoshida
24. Francisco Lindor
25. Kyle Schwarber
26. Julio Rodriguez
27. Vladimir Guerrero Jr
28. Chas McCormick
29. Rafael Devers
30. Alex Bregman
31. Michael Conforto
32. Gleyber Torres
33. Lane Thomas
34. Kyle Tucker
35. Alex Verdugo
36. Jonathan India
37. Ezequiel Duran
38. Trea Turner
39. Taylor Ward
40. Bryce Harper
41. Joey Meneses
42. Anthony Volpe
43. Alex Kiriloff
44. Max Kepler
45. Stone Garrett
46. Mike Yastrzemski
47. Wilmer Flores
48. Salvador Perez
49. Bobby Witt Jr
50. Mickey Moniak

Today will be a ton of fun to draft. I love when JP Sears pitches at home, because the field loves to stack bats against the A’s without any context. We’re not seeing yesterday’s level of hype as they fell flat in that game, but their top 4 is going in nearly every draft.

One of the best spots today includes both the D-backs and Reds in Great American Small Park against two pitchers that are over-performing. I will be stacking both sides of this game in hopes the regression monster comes out to play in a big way.

Another game that I like both sides of is Giants @ Nationals. It’s the ideal spot for both teams – Nationals get a lefty, Giants get a righty. One issue for the Giants is whether LaMonte Wade Jr plays or not. Fortunately, we can draft him anyways and get a swap to someone low owned on the Giants if he is not. For the Nationals, Lane Thomas, Joey Meneses, Stone Garrett, and Keibert Ruiz are my favorite targets here. But you should probably include the 7-9 spots of that lineup once it comes out.

I won’t be taking any Pirates tonight. It was nice to see them leave the Guardians series with one win, but Shohei Ohtani is very likely to overpower this lineup tonight. On the flip side, I’m not including any Angels outside of Ohtani. Johan Oviedo is better than people give him credit for as I’ve alluded to on previous posts. I won’t be drafting him as a SP today, but I’ll get “exposure” to him via the Angels fade.

I am struggling with Mets @ Red Sox. I love Kodai Senga, and Kutter Crawford might be good? But they’re playing in Fenway with the 2nd best park factor for hitters, and I’m not sure I trust them to overcome that tonight with these two lineups on paper. Pete Alonso (again per Tuma, shoutout to the goat) might still be hurt. He’s certainly playing like it, and with Starling Marte on the IL as well this team just isn’t that threatening right now. I’ll stack them once or twice and hope I get lucky if they get it together for tonight’s slate.

That is where I will call it today. I still have drafts to complete and as I was alluding to earlier, I find myself having much more success when I put in high volume and get exposure to more teams as opposed to playing less and condensing my player pool. That’s just anecdotal note from myself and not advice for you, because everyone is different. Good luck today!

Nez

Padres (Yu Darvish, RHP) @ Blue Jays (Jose Berrios, RHP)
Yankees (Carlos Rodon, LHP) @ Angels (Chase Silseth, RHP)
Giants (Ross Stripling, RHP) @ Reds (Graham Ashcraft, RHP)
White Sox (Touki Toussaint, RHP) @ Giants (Justin Verlander, RHP)
D-backs (Ryne Nelson, RHP) @ Braves (Charlie Morton, RHP)
Nationals (Trevor Williams, RHP) @ Cubs (Kyle Hendricks, RHP)
Tigers (Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP) @ Royals (Ryan Yarbrough, LHP)
Twins (Kenta Maeda, RHP) @ Mariners (Luis Castillo, RHP)

Good morning! Happy Wednesday. Did you guys watch any baseball or check any box scores yesterday? I have never seen anything like that before in my life. Per CBS Sports:

A Modern Era (since 1900) record 12 teams scored 10-plus runs Tuesday, including a Modern Era record four games in which both teams scored double digits.

The previous Modern Era record was nine teams with 10-plus runs on Aug. 23, 1998, and July 7, 2004. Thirteen teams scored 10-plus runs on July 4, 1894, and 12 teams did it on May 30, 1884. However, that was long before the American League and National League merged to form what is now Major League Baseball.

Prior to Tuesday, the only other days with four games in which both teams scored 10-plus runs were July 4 and July 9 in 1894. The previous Modern Era record was three games in which both teams scored 10-plus runs on May 17, 1996, and May 5, 2000.

cbssports.com/mlb/news/modern-era-record-12-teams-score-double-digit-runs-tuesday-one-of-the-highest-scoring-days-in-mlb-history/

Insanity. So it of course made for an insane slate of baseball as well, where the Astros @ Rockies didn’t even make the record books for being one of the half dozen games that combined for over 20 runs. We love baseball and everything that comes with it, don’t we folks?

Speaking of loving baseball, the Pirates are doing everything in their power to take the joy of the sport out of my life. They found themselves down 4-0 to the Guardians in the 1st inning on seven (7) Mitch Keller pitches. He wound up going 6 innings and getting his PC up to 100, so it’s not like there’s an injury there. What do I think is going in Pittsburgh, you’re probably not asking? I think it’s a culmination of a few things. One, just a lack of enthusiasm. Who is to blame for this? Start at the top, work your way down. You can see it in Bryan Reynolds, and can easily pin a portion of Mitch’s struggles to this as well. Two, a lack of proper coaching. Shelton and his entire coaching staff have blame to bear, and they just extended Shelton this season. So that’s fun. Lastly, it’s the lack of spending. A cheap organization doesn’t just stop at the product on the field when it comes to their frugalness. It makes it ripples all the way through – including scouting and RND. I’ll end this Pirates rant before this turns into a dissertation. Just know they’re hurting me than they’re hurting your best ball teams, I promise.

Pitching Preferences

1. Luis Castillo
2. Eduardo Rodriguez
3. Justin Verlander
4. Charlie Morton
5. Yu Darvish
6. Carlos Rodon
7. Jose Berrios
8. Kenta Maeda
9. Kyle Hendricks

Favorite Teams

1. Braves
2. Giants
3. Reds
4. Cubs
5. Mets
6. Yankees
7. Tigers
8. Nationals
9. D-backs

Batter Ranks

1. Ronald Acuna Jr
2. Matt Olson
3. Michael Conforto
4. Matt McLain
5. Jake Fraley
6. Cody Bellinger
7. Shohei Ohtani
8. Spencer Torkelson
9. Julio Rodriguez
10. Pete Alonso
11. Fernando Tatis Jr
12. Brandon Nimmo
13. Juan Soto
14. Ozzie Albies
15. Austin Riley
16. Joc Pederson
17. J.D. Davis
18. Mike Yastrzemski
19. Vladimir Guerrero Jr
20. Manny Machado
21. Bo Bichette
22. Anthony Rizzo
23. Giancarlo Stanton
24. Corbin Carroll
25. Gleyber Torres
26. George Springer
27. Spencer Steer
28. Elly De La Cruz
29. Francisco Lindor
30. Francisco Alvarez
31. Bobby Witt Jr
32. Ketel Marte
33. Riley Greene
34. Matt Vierling
35. Lane Thomas
36. Teoscar Hernandez
37. Ian Happ
38. Seiya Suzuki
39. Christian Walker
40. Nico Hoerner
41. Luis Robert Jr

Today feels tough to navigate once again. We have teams who as of late have been underperforming, good teams with difficult-ish matchups, and a game at GABP with two bad pitchers. The Braves are going to be the most popular team today far and away, but I’m not recommending fading them. Just try to keep your stacks to two or three and get different elsewhere in your builds.

Blue Jays and Padres are tough today. Berrios has had himself a nice season while Darvish has been up and down. At first glance I don’t see the winner coming out of this matchup, but I also don’t think these pitchers are good enough to not get shelled today either. I think one or both of these teams offer solid leverage today.

I will be all over the Giants today. I wish LaMonte Wade Jr could stay on the field, but that just hasn’t happened on a consistent basis yet. He would be nice to have in the lineup today but we will need to wait and see, as he was removed early in the game yesterday. The rest of that lineup is still a top a priority for me.

Good luck today everyone. I can’t guarantee we see over 200 runs scored today, but I’m sure some team will come out and surprise us on this slate. See you in the lobbies!

Nez

Dodgers (Michael Grove, RHP) @ Orioles (Tyler Wells, RHP)
Guardians (Logan Allen, LHP) @ Pirates (Mitch Keller, RHP)
Padres (Joe Musgrove, RHP) @ Blue Jays (Alek Manoah, RHP)
Giants (Anthony DeSclafini, RHP) @ Reds (Luke Weaver, RHP)
White Sox (Lucas Giolito, RHP) @ Mets (Carlos Carrasco, RHP)
D-backs (Zach Davies, RHP) @ Braves (Bryce Elder, RHP)
Marlins (Edward Cabrera, RHP) @ Cardinals (Jordan Montgomery, LHP)
Nationals (Patrick Corbin, LHP) @ Cubs (Jameson Taillon, RHP)
Rays (Taj Bradley, RHP) @ Rangers (Nathan Eovaldi, RHP)
Tigers (Tarik Skubal, LHP) @ Royals (Daniel Lynch, LHP)
Astros (Hunter Brown, RHP) @ Rockies (Jake Bird, RHP)
Yankees (Domingo German, RHP) @ Angels (Patrick Sandoval, LHP)
Red Sox (TBD) @ Athletics (Luis Medina, RHP)
Twins (Bailey Ober, RHP) @ Mariners (Bryan Woo, RHP)

Good 14-game afternoon. We were close last night! Flirted with first in the late slate but ultimately got rugged. Felt fun to be in the hunt again, can tell we’re getting closer to a big W.

Today is a really interesting pitching slate. There are not a lot of “aces” on the slate today, and the best pitchers available are in tricky matchups for the most part. Off the top, it looks like a “wait on pitcher” in the 6-person drafts, and a “strong preference” day for the Cycle, where I never want to be left out to dry at the position. But with 20 something options at our disposal, it’s not the end of the world.

Pitching Preferences

1. Joe Musgrove
2. Bryan Woo
3. Mitch Keller
4. Bailey Ober
5. Lucas Giolito
6. Patrick Sandoval
7. Domingo German
8. Tarik Skubal
9. Logan Allen
10. Bryce Elder
11. Carlos Carrasco
12. Tyler Wells

Favorite Teams

1. Astros
2. Braves
3. Giants
4. Orioles
5. Cubs
6. Padres
7. Rockies
8. Rangers
9. Cardinals
10. Red Sox
11. Reds
12. D-backs

Batter Ranks

1. Ronald Acuna Jr
2. Shohei Ohtani
3. Kyle Tucker
4. Alex Bregman
5. LaMonte Wade Jr
6. Matt Olson
7. Fernando Tatis Jr
8. Adley Rutschman
9. Juan Soto
10. Freddie Freeman
11. Anthony Santander
12. Gunnar Henderson
13. Manny Machado
14. Mookie Betts
15. Corey Seager
16. Nico Hoerner
17. Chas McCormick
18. Michael Conforto
19. Joc Pederson
20. Luis Robert Jr
21. Jose Ramirez
22. Ozzie Albies
23. Paul Goldschmidt
24. Lane Thomas
25. Seiya Suzuki
26. Spencer Torkelson
27. Rafael Devers
28. Masataka Yoshida
29. Giancarlo Stanton
30. Gleyber Torres
31. Nolan Arenado
32. Henry Davis
33. Lars Nootbaar
34. Brendan Donovan
35. Wander Franco
36. Randy Arozarena
37. Corbin Carroll
38. Ryan McMahon
39. Nolan Jones
40. Will Smith
41. JD Martinez
42. J.D. Davis
43. Mike Yastrzemski
44. Blake Sabol
45. Brandon Crawford
46. Elly De La Cruz
47. Jake Fraley
48. TJ Friedl
49. Pete Alonso
50. Brandon Nimmo

There’s my lists. They are what they are. I don’t really have any recommendations on how you should use them. You’re free to use my opinions however you prefer. On a 14-game slate, there are no rules. I’ll be doing plenty of 5 man and 4 man stacks where I feel there is leverage, along with some best player available drafting and “chalk” drafting. There’s some dudes we need to watch out for, and be prepared to swap off of if they’re not playing.

Fernando Tatis Jr apparently has a nagging ankle injury. I feel pretty confident he plays tonight, and hopefully he does against Manoah. I’m not buying his bounce back.

Shohei Ohtani struck out swinging in the 9th last night and looked achey after. If you ask me? He could probably use a break. They’re in do or die mode, but he hasn’t had a day off in a while (I know the ASB just happened). I’m going to wait until as late as possible to take Shohei.

Cedric Mullins hasn’t played in the last two(?) games. The fact he isn’t on the IL is a good sign, but what would be even better is if he played tonight. He will be undrafted until lineups come out, so maybe take some swings in the last round for the free swap if he sits again.

That will do it for me today. Best of luck everyone on this massive slate. Here’s a pick’em I threw together. I put $5 on it.

Nez

https://play.underdogfantasy.com/es-TymHdyTJnO

• Schedule Breakdown
• ADP Deltas
• BATX Rest of Season Ranks

Shoutout to the one and only Neumy for putting these resources together. His sheet game is top notch, and these links are testament to that. These are excellent resources to review whether you are entering this contest for the first time or for your 100th draft.

The Schedule Breakdown is useful for identifying who is playing more often, where they are playing, and who they are playing. I’m targeting Astros in this contest for example, because they play the Royals twice (3rd worst team ERA in baseball), the Athletics (worst ERA in baseball), and the Orioles (15th worst) in the Championship round. They come with their own baggage in the form of injuries, but not trying to get too into the weeds on them specifically. Simply pointing out an edge that can be gleaned from this specific link.

Elly De La Cruz, man. I’m not sure there was a bigger edge in the early draft window than him hiding in the 18th-20th rounds of drafts. Sadly, I was not smart enough to be taking him. I was, and still am, skeptical of his ability to maintain the level of which he is playing for this season. He is going to have an incredible career, and is absolutely Good For Baseball. He highlights the largest (positive) ADP change in this contest, and it’s not close (RIP Jacob deGrom, though). I’m not sure that fading big ADP movers thus far is optimal, though. Elly was only being drafted in that late range for a very small percentage of drafts. With well over half of all drafts left to go and Elly going at a premium price for about a month, he’s not someone I would consider going full “game theory-bro” over. I will not have as much of him simply because of the players that go around him.

Elly aside, the ADP Movers sheet is fun to look at, see who is moving, and identify who has more room to run to get ahead of further movement as drafts rage on at a blistering pace until Friday 4PM ET.

BATX rest of season projections are great to review for a number of reasons. They help remind us of who these players are and were expected to be in the midst of drafting a tournament in a market set by human beings who are easily swayed by how well a player did or didn’t play the day prior. Finding major deltas in these projections versus ADP is something I am planning on incorporating this week as I marathon my remaining drafts on my quest to maxing this tournament. These projections are not to be taken as gospel, but merely a way to help make decisions, all things considered.

With all of these resources at your disposal to review, it’s now time for the most important information you can utilize while drafting – My Takes. I have some favorites in this contest, such as the previously stated Astros dues to championship schedule. to start, here are my top exposures so far in this contest for transparencies sake.

Out of all of these names above, here is who I am currently targeting ahead of ADP currently.

• LaMonte Wade Jr
• Mitch Keller
• Hunter Brown
• Andrew McCutchen
• Joe Musgrove

I am really into Joe Musgrove having a monster 2nd half, and his ADP of 89 to me is about 20 picks too late.

We’re seeing Musgrove get more chase out of the zone as the season has progressed. He’s increased the use of his curveball per Baseball Savant, and the results are following. I plan on making Musgrove a staple on the rest of the teams.

Best of luck the rest of the week! I still don’t think this contest will completely fill, but I’m taking a new stand that it will fill 90% of the way by lock on Friday. Time will tell. Until then, sub to Badge Bros on the main channel and our UD MLB channel as well. Thx.

Nez

Good morning! Forgive me the shortcut today. It’s my last day at home and any time the Probable Starters page lines up for easy screenshots, I can’t help but to optimize for it. Let me know if it’s an awful experience and I won’t do it again. But here’s our starters for today! I didn’t profit last night despite loving the Orioles and Mets, but that’s MLB DFS on short slates. No nuts, no cash. Let’s get into today. Heads up that today’s post will be brief.

Pitching Preferences
Luis Castillo
Zac Gallen
Andrew Abbott
Hunter Brown
Corbin Burnes
Justin Verlander
Tony Gonsolin
Carlos Rodon
Yu Darvish
Dylan Cease
Jordan Montgomery
Aaron Civale
Rich Hill

You know the drill on twelve game slates. We wait for SP in the main slate, and attack SP in The Cycle. I would have no problem at all landing on any of the above today.

Favorite Teams
San Francisco Giants
Minnesota Twins
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
Texas Rangers
New York Yankees
Cleveland Guardians

I want the Giants, and while it truly doesn’t matter who is on the mound today for Colorado in regards to SF scoring runs, it obviously does matter in terms of what lineup the Giants will put out there. Once we get any indication of righty or lefty, I’ll be making decisions accordingly as far as platoon matchups go. I think this is a classic Giants bink slate. Which is seemingly the only way I win baseball contests any more.

The Twins face lefty Cole Irvin, who has been bad. Which means this is a Byron Buxton let down slate because that what he does in smash spots. I imagine Minnesota will be a popular stack today, but for good reason. Mix them in.

The Red Sox are likely to be the top stack in terms of ADP today, and it’s also warranted against Luis Medina, who I actually enjoy to watch. Devers is still not doing prime Devers things just yet, but that’s not going to deter us from taking him today. The rest of the lineup should be taken as well, and I’d probably opt for some lesser drafted players today in this spot where everyone is chasing the top of the order.

Best of luck today! I’m hoping to be able to squeeze in a solid 20 drafts today, but time will tell. I’ll be returning on Monday, so you’re on your own tomorrow. Have a great weekend folks.

Nez

Orioles (Kyle Bradish, RHP) @ Yankees (Luis Severino, RHP)
Royals (Jordan Lyles, RHP) @ Guardians (Tanner Bibee, RHP)
Rangers (Nathan Eovaldi, RHP) @ Red Sox (Kutter Crawford, RHP)
Mariners (George Kirby, RHP) @ Astros (TBD)
Mets (Carlos Carrasco, RHP) @ D-backs (Ryne Nelson, RHP)
Pirates (Johan Oviedo, RHP) @ Dodgers (Julio Urias, LHP)

Good morning! Bad day to fade the Reds yesterday. Eeked out a small profit despite having zero exposure to any of them. My best team earned me $40 and contained a fat ZERO from Pete Alonso. So he just made the theoretical banned list for me. No CWS/TOR was a bummer yesterday as well. I thought Blue Jays were being way under priced against Lance Lynn, and Vladdy is heating up. Let’s move on to Thursday. I’m feeling a birthday bink for me today for my 31st.

Pitching Preferences
Nathan Eovaldi
Tanner Bibee
George Kirby
Carlos Carrasco
Kyle Bradish
Julio Urias
Johan Oviedo
Luis Severino

I mentioned yesterday’s pitching slate was full of mid, and we ended up with two SPs over twenty points, lol. (Senga looked unstoppable yesterday). I should have reserved that description for today’s slate, but I think calling this collection of pitchers “mid” is a bit generous. I list more than 6 SP here because I think all of these names are worthy of consideration (yes, even Oviedo.)

I don’t really have a lot of good things to say about these names. Eovaldi gets a revenge game if you’re into that. The Red Sox have a team OPS of .754 against RHP, which ranks 8th in the Majors. It’s not a fantastic spot but he’s my favorite today. I don’t think he’s a separator today, but he’s good, and separating from the SPs today is certainly in his range of outcomes.

The same thing can be said about Bibee today too, who has the juiciest matchup today against the Royals. They are, conversely, putting up an OPS of .654 against RHP, which is 28th in the Majors. Bibee been really good this season, not sure why even I am putting him below Eovaldi today now that I’m writing this. But we’ll allow me to think out loud because it’s my blog. Bibee is the safest pick today at SP.

One last thing I’ll say about this slate of pitching is that Oviedo will go virtually undrafted, and I think he’s a good pitcher. He’s a true enigma though. He has three starts this season where he surrendered 6 or more ER. But the rest of his game log is littered with starts with 1 or 2 ER, and I think that’s in his range out of outcomes today against the Dodgers, any nobody will want any part of that. If I’m the last one left to take a pitcher today, I think I’ll opt for Oviedo for some uniqueness as opposed to doing what everyone else does (not take Oviedo).

Favorite Teams
Baltimore Orioles
Cleveland Guardians
Texas Rangers
New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers
Pittsburgh Pirates

Let’s hit a big one today. The Orioles are facing a righty, so stop me if you’ve heard this before – I’m going to stack the Orioles today. Still no Colton Cowser for us to draft, but Gunnar Henderson was back at leadoff yesterday, so that will be fun if that holds today as well at Yankee Stadium, he’s currently the 6th Oriole off the board as of writing this. That’s a mistake.

The Guardians face Jordan Lyles, and they are a great team to stack against RHP, especially against Lyles who has been throwing like he’s in the HR Derby. We salute our beloved inning eaters. Kwan is a top ten pick today by ADP, and that’s probably correct. He could compile 6 ABs today and get drove in every time he’s on base. Give me some Josh Bell today too. He’s had a bad season, but he still has the ability to homer more than once and break a slate, IMO.

The Rangers get Kutter Crawford, which is awesome. I’m staying true to my brand and getting to them today as often as I can. They’re tough to onslaught but it can be done if you draft enough times and get the right room. Ezequiel Duran no matter what.

The Pirates are facing Julio Urias, who sucks this season, which is awesome because he sucks as a guy. Pirates have a barrage of righties to throw at Urias, but unfortunately McCutchen is a truly questionable to be one of them as he was he fell awkwardly on his elbow after an up and in pitch last night. The perils of being in your upper-30’s, am I right? But still, Henry Davis will be a top-5 drafted player for me today. I can’t wait.

Good luck today! I hope I have something to victory lap tomorrow.

Nez

Reds (Graham Ashcraft, RHP) @ Nationals (Josiah Gray, RHP)
Orioles (Dean Kremer, RHP) @ Yankees (Randy Vasquez, RHP)
Rangers (Jon Gray, RHP) @ Red Sox (Brayan Bello, RHP)
Braves (Michael Soroka, RHP) @ Guardians (Cal Quantrill, RHP)
Royals (Alec Marsh, RHP) @ Twins (Pablo Lopez, RHP)
Blue Jays (Jose Berrios, RHP) @ White Sox (Lance Lynn, RHP)
Cubs (Justin Steele, LHP) @ Brewers (Adrian Houser, RHP)
Angels (Patrick Sandoval, LHP) @ Padres (Seth Lugo, RHP)
Mariners (Tommy Milone, LHP) @ Giants (Alex Cobb, RHP)
Mets (Kodai Senga, RHP) @ D-backs (Tommy Henry, LHP)
Pirates (Osvaldo Bido, RHP) @ Dodgers (Bobby Miller, RHP)

Pitching Preferences
Pablo Lopez
Justin Steele
Kodai Senga
Jose Berrios
Brayan Bello
Seth Lugo
Jon Gray
Alex Cobb
Josiah Gray
Dean Kremer
Adrian Houser
Patrick Sandoval
Lance Lynn
Graham Ashcraft
Bobby Miller

Good morning! I hope everyone had a great 4th of July yesterday. Underdog dropped their first Pomeranian tournament of 2023, and the 33k rake free tournament filled within hours, on a holiday meant to be spent outdoors. Really sick stuff by the consumers. But it goes to show the lengths people will go in order to soak up some EV, plus over half of those drafts were slow drafts to be fair. Shoutout to the good people on both sides for that.

I am still riding a cold streak unfortunately, teetering at a break even level for the past week plus. Still, I rise. My volume, being that I am still home in PA, will be lower than my normal fighting weight as it has been since Thursday. But I think we can get there today. I really like when the slate is full of mid pitching, and that’s exactly what we’ve got going on right here.

Pablo Lopez is one of our clear standout today against Kansas City. In 6-person drafts, I’m not sure he’s a first rounder. But in The Cycle, he is a top 5 pick for certain. He has prop lines of 7.5 Ks, 18.5 Outs, and 1.5 ER. The Royals are not very good.

Justin Steele continues to get good results. I’ve been bought in from the start. He gets Milwaukee today, who as a team rank dead last in OPS against LHP. Steele, IMO, is a first round pick in The Cycle. Snag him in the late 2nd or 3rd in the Walk-Off Wednesday.

I have a hard time with Kodai Senga. His results have been very good, but he always feels like he is on the cusp of giving up runs in bunches during his starts due to walks. The D-backs are good, but the pitching on this slate is not. Senga, along with the aforementioned pitchers, will represent a tier break at SP today.

Brayan Bello is similar to Senga, in that he has a tough matchup (Bello up against the Rangers) but is one of the best pitchers today. If I miss out on my top three, I can see myself opting for Bello more often than not, but I’ll likely wait until the 5th or 6th round for my pitcher if I do miss on those names.

I like Seth Lugo today a good bit. No Trout, and potentially no Ohtani either. The Angels can provide a solid K floor for Lugo today, and I think he will go overlooked in both contests.

Favorite Teams
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers
Minnesota Twins
San Diego Padres
Toronto Blue Jays
San Francisco Giants
Baltimore Orioles
Washington Nationals

Here’s my initial read on offenses today. The Mets really stick out to me against Tommy Henry. To my surprise, they’re only putting up a .717 OPS against LHP this season. But Pete Alonso and Tommy Pham, along with the rest of the lineup, are not difficult to pair today. They’re at Chase Field, so it’s a slight bump to them being away from Queens.

The Braves are always a team to target. They’re easy to onslaught today, and why not? They face Cal Quantrill today, who is the living embodiment of mediocrity. Stack ’em up.

The Twins face “Alec Marsh” today with great hitting conditions. I don’t know who he is, but buddy gave up 5 ER in 4.0 IP in his first and only start this season against the Dodgers. He did serve up 5 Ks as well, and the Twins do strike out a lot. So, I guess there’s a path to failure there, and the Twins love to let me down. But I’m recommending them today in this post. I’m going to want to see what the starting lineup looks like, but I think we can safely draft Edouard Julien, Byron Buxton, and I guess Carlos Correa if that’s your thing. The matchup is so good that we should probably just ignore Correa’s 2023 up until this point, but man has he disappointed.

The Dodgers are up against My Pirates and Osvaldo Bido. They lit up Luis Ortiz last night but still ended up losing because Jack Suwinski is either the best player breathing or the worst player to play baseball, with no in between. But Bido – he’s fine, not great. He will probably strike out more than 4 today, which is his current line for UD Pick’em. But it’s the Dodgers, and he is Osvaldo Bido. Bednar threw over 20 pitches yesterday across 1.2 IP, so I doubt he’s available today either. #NeverDodgers, but maybe #SometimesDodgers, like today. James Outman might be back, by the way.

My sneaky stack of the day is the Nationals. Graham Ashcraft just had a nice outing against the Padres, but other than that he is giving up 3 or more ER routinely. The Nationals are sporting a .684 OPS against RHP this season, but it’s Ashcraft, so I’m thinking thats a data point we can ignore and take advantage of an ok top of the order against a bad pitcher.

The Orioles will just continue to lose me money until they don’t, I guess. They get Randy Vásquez today, a rookie RHP who has had two good outings thus far. His four-seam seems pretty legit, but rookies tend to regress hard when they do. Orioles against a RHP is a boilerplate stack for me. If you’re tired of them losing you money, I don’t blame you. But I will be there no matter what. It’s Colton Cowser day, though we can’t draft him just yet. He’s one to watch though for future drafts.

Good luck today! I hope you guys win some money. I’m anxious to get back on stream again, but until then, see you guys here tomorrow.

Nez

Orioles (Tyler Wells, RHP) @ Yankees (Domingo German, RHP)
Braves (Bryce Elder, RHP) @ Guardians (Gavin Williams, RHP)
Royals (Austin Cox, LHP) @ Twins (Joe Ryan, RHP)
Angels (Jaime Barria, RHP) @ Padres (Blake Snell?, LHP)
Mariners (Bryan Woo, RHP) @ Giants (Logan Webb, RHP)
Pirates (Mitch Keller, RHP) @ Dodgers (Michael Grove?)