Reds (Luke Weaver, RHP) @ Orioles (Kyle Gibson, RHP)
Padres (Blake Snell, LHP) @ Pirates (Mitch Keller, RHP)
Giants (Logan Webb, RHP) @ Blue Jays (TBD)
Marlins (Braxton Garrett, LHP) @ Red Sox (TBD)
Brewers (Wade Miley, LHP) @ Mets (Kodai Senga, RHP)
Astros (Cristian Javier, RHP) @ Cardinals (Miles Mikolas, RHP)
Tigers (Joey Wentz, LHP) @ Rangers (Dane Dunning, RHP)
Phillies (Aaron Nola, RHP) @ Cubs (Drew Smyly, LHP)
Guardians (Logan Allen, LHP) @ Royals (Austin Cox, LHP)
Dodgers (TBD) @ Rockies (Kyle Freeland, LHP)
White Sox (Lucas Giolito, RHP) @ Angels (Jaime Barria, RHP)
Rays (Zach Eflin, RHP) @ D-backs (Zach Davies, RHP)
Yankees (Domingo German, RHP) @ Athletics (JP Sears, LHP)

Good morning! I hope you all have had good weeks thus far. It’s been a tough week for fantasy, as I am still waiting to take home a profit. I’m feeling good about today though. Underdog has rewarded us with a 20k prize pool today after clearing 15k the past two days well before lock. This is very exciting! Baseball is growing and we get a shot at 2k to first now. Hopefully things can continue to grow further from here. Don’t forget about the 7th Inning Stretch, either!

Pitching Preferences
Braxton Garrett
Mitch Keller
Blake Snell
Logan Webb
JP Sears
Aaron Nola
Zach Eflin
Logan Allen
Jaime Barria
Kyle Gibson
Drew Smyly
Lucas Giolito
Kodai Senga

I like these options/matchups much more than yesterday. Not sure how that makes sense since these are the same teams facing as yesterday but it’s true.

Braxton Garrett has been really good. He’s currently the SP3 but he’s my favorite SP today. The Red Sox have been a really weird team this season. They could take Garrett for 6 ER today and I wouldn’t be surprised. But I’m not counting it, and I’m also counting on a solid K floor as well.

I have Aaron Nola much lower than his ADP/positional ranking currently. He had a nice start against the Braves in his last outing, but I’m not ready to take him in the 2nd/3rd round when the bats on this slate are as loaded as they are and the options are this deep for the main slate.

JP Sears is shaping up to be my highest owned pitcher today across both slates. He goes so cheap, gets a horrendous Yankees lineup in Oakland, and he is good. One of the best floors on the slate today.

Favorite Teams
Dodgers
Orioles
Rays
Rangers
Giants?
Marlins
Rockies
Ohtani/Trout

The Dodgers let everybody down yesterday. #NeverDodgers is a bit for a reason, folks. It hits just enough that it’ll make you question taking a Dodger on every slate. No matter what happens the day before at Coors though, we will continue to take the better team. They get Kyle Freeland today, so that should be a lot of fun. Expect more than five runs scored today for the Dodgers.

The Orioles get Luke Weaver today in Camden Yards. We are very excited about this. They are very easy to get to in drafts and until that changes, they are going to be my most owned stack by a long shot. Gunnar Henderson, Cedric Mullins, Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander are my priority targets, but I’ll probably mix in newly promoted rookie Jordan Westburg in some builds as well.

If you were scouring the leaderboard last night, you may have saw me in the top-10 (until Shohei Ohtani homer #2, he is so ridiculous) with a Rangers stack after letting you all know that I have banned them. I apologize, in half sincerity. Putting them on the banned list was a bit, and I think it came across as such. But I don’t want to make anyone believe that I am intending to deceive readers by saying one thing then doing the opposite. That being said, I’m going back to the Rangers well today. You’ve been warned, they will bust.

Here are some drafts I’ve done so far, for you to get an idea of what the lobbies might look like for you. Good luck!

Nez

Padres (Yu Darvish, RHP) @ Pirates (Rich Hill, LHP)
Reds (Andrew Abbott, LHP) @ Orioles (Tyler Wells, RHP)
Giants (Bullpen Game) @ Blue Jays (Kevin Gausman, RHP)
Marlins (Sandy Alcantara, RHP) @ Red Sox (Garrett Whitlock, RHP)
Brewers (Julio Teheran, RHP) @ Mets (David Peterson, LHP)
Twins (Joe Ryan, RHP) @ Braves (Bryce Elder, RHP)
Astros (Framber Valdez, LHP) @ Cardinals (Jordan Montgomery, LHP)
Phillies (Ranger Suarez, LHP) @ Cubs (Jameson Taillon, RHP)
Tigers (Matt Manning, RHP) @ Rangers (Martin Perez, LHP)
Guardians (Gavin Williams, RHP) @ Royals (Brady Singer, RHP)
Dodgers (Clayton Kershaw, LHP) @ Rockies (Connor Seabold, RHP)
Rays (Taj Bradley, RHP) @ D-backs (Zac Gallen, RHP)
Yankees (Jhony Brito, RHP) @ Athletics (Paul Blackburn, RHP)
Nationals (Jake Irvin, RHP) @ Mariners (Bryan Woo, RHP)
White Sox (Michael Kopech, RHP) @ Angels (Shohei Ohtani, RHP)

Good grief. Fifteen games. Dodgers at Coors. We’re not scared though. We smile in the face of this beast and go straight for the best plays. Who/what are they? Let’s waste no time and dive in.

Pitching Preferences
Framber Valdez
Kevin Gausman
Yu Darvish
Zac Gallen
Bryan Woo
Taj Bradley
Clayton Kershaw
Michael Kopech
Joe Ryan
Gavin Williams
Ranger Suarez
Andrew Abbott
Martin Perez
Jordan Montgomery
Paul Blackburn

For a fifteen game slate, the pitching options today are shallow. Blame that on a few teams not announcing a starter (per MLB) (edit: we now have starters for the Cubs and Cardinals), the Giants throwing a bullpen game, and Julio Teheran mystifying us every start and leaving me clueless on how to proceed with him. This makes the dynamic much different in our two contests today. In The Cycle, I’ll likely have my pitcher drafted by round three. For the main slate, I’ll more often than not be waiting until round six.

Taking a look at early ADP, and I’m honestly shocked Kershaw is SP1 at ADP 4.2 as of writing this. I’m on record disparaging the Colorado Rockies, and they just recently were shellacked by the Angles (not a bad team), but this is not a price I’m buying at. I suspect this ADP will come down significantly as drafts rage on, but until it does this is a no from me. Coors takes no prisoners, even future hall of famers.

Zac Gallen and Taj Bradley are set to face in a fantastic pitcher’s duel. Both are backed by good offenses, but I’m going under on this total. Both are great clicks today.

Andrew Abbott has been really, really good. A pinch of luck has helped, as he is sporting a 100% LOB thus far and a .190 BABIP, but the early results are the results. I think he’s a sneaky sharp pick today.

Favorite Teams
Dodgers
Padres
Guardians
Phillies
Red Sox
Marlins
Reds
Rangers (banned)
Mariners

The Rangers are on this list, but they’re squarely on the banned list. They have only existed to take my money the past two weeks. I’m over them. You all can go ahead and draft them today though, because this is certainly the day they explode and positively regress.

Dodgers are at Coors Field against Connor Seabold.
The highest team totals from non-Dodgers are from the Rangers (lol) and the Padres at 5.5 runs.
The Dodgers have a team total of 7.5 runs. This is insane, and an extremely tough game to fade today. But we will ultimately have to do so on a majority of our teams today. There’s 29 other teams to draft today, so we can get creative and find some spots elsewhere. But the disparity is hard to stomach.

Red Sox, come on down? They get 2023 Sandy Alcantara, who has been getting hit very hard. Lots of lefties in this lineup, so that’s fun. On the flip side, the Marlins get Jazz Chisholm back today against Garrett Whitlock. I really like Whitlock, but this seems like a pretty bad spot for him. Marlins have a fun lineup. They will be stacked a few times in my portfolio today as well.

The Reds disappointed me yesterday, but cover boy Spencer Steer got there yesterday, so we’ll take a moral W there. They get a personal favorite of mine today in Tyler Wells. So naturally, a right handed heavy lineup like the Reds facing one of my favorite pitchers in 2023 would be a team I am fading right? Surprise, I have deceived you. Wells appears to be a tried and true reverse splits pitcher. Enter the Reds. Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Jonathan India are fun ways to attack this game. I foresee them being low owned today.

I’m going to tie a bow on this with that note. Best of luck today everyone.

By the way, congrats to BESTBALL VIPER for taking down the main slate last night! A day one supporter of mine and the Badge Bros, he’s as sharp as they get in our streets. Certainly won’t be his last 1st place finish on the season.

Nez

Reds (Brandon Williamson, LHP) @ Orioles (Cole Irvin, LHP)*
Brewers (Colin Rea, RHP) @ Mets (Justin Verlander, RHP)*
Twins (Sonny Gray, RHP) @ Braves (Spencer Strider, RHP)
Tigers (Matthew Boyd, LHP) @ Rangers (Andrew Heaney, LHP)
White Sox (Dylan Cease, RHP) @ Angels (Reid Detmers, LHP)
Nationals (Trevor Williams, RHP) @ Mariners (Luis Castillo, RHP)

Today’s weather

Good morning! It is Monday June 26th and there is baseball being played, at least in some parts of the country anyhow. We’ve got a six game slate on tap with some unfortunate weather in a couple of them. Baltimore and Queens, New York look to be legitimately threatening today for our contest. But like I will always caveat, Roth is more cautious than not. So for now, we’re going to act like these games will be played.

Pitching Preferences
Spencer Strider
Luis Castillo
Andrew Heaney
Dylan Cease
Justin Verlander*
Reid Detmers
Brandon Williamson*
Trevor Williams
Matthew Boyd
Colin Rea*
Cole Irvin*

There they are. We have two major standouts today in Strider and Castillo. The former is facing the Twins, AKA the most strikeout happy team in the league (27% K rate vs RHP), and the latter is taking on a right handed dominant Nationals lineup that unfortunately strikes out the least against RHP, but is sporting an 86 wRC+ as a team against RHP. We like both of these guys today, a lot. They’re both obvious first rounders today.

After that, you really have to do a little bit of hoping that these guys don’t get blown up if you take them. Cease, Verlander, Detmers, and Heaney all have 5+ ER in their range of outcomes today, but I’ll put my money on Heaney being the least likely to suffer that fate. The Tigers rank 24th in team wRC+ against LHP while being in the middle of the pack in K%. Heaney will become more expensive as more drafts take place, so maybe get ahead of that by taking him in the 4th or 5th before it happens.

If the Mets game plays, I’ll certainly let Verlander steal my money again facing the Brewers, who ever since I donned them as stinky a couple posts back have been playing pretty well. Verlander also isn’t very cheap at the moment. He might be someone I’ll wait and see on as we get more clarity in the weather forecast, but someone that I’d like to have in a vacuum on this slate.

Favorite Teams
Reds
Braves
Rangers
Orioles
Mets
Mariners
Angels
White Sox
Twins
Nationals

The Reds are on another level right now. Since Elly De La Cruz‘s call up, they’re 3rd in the league in OPS at .841, and now get to face a lefty pitcher (weather permitting) in Cole Irvin, who is rocking a 7.71 ERA on the season. One problem with this spot is Camden Yards and the dimensions in left field. It absolutely kills homers, and the Reds have almost certainly benefitted from their home park along that aforementioned stretch. It feels really bad letting that strange wall mute our Reds exposure too strongly though. They’re legit, and loaded with righty bats. I’ll be stacking them quite a bit today.

The Braves take on Sonny Gray, who actually does a pretty good job of minimizing his opponents outputs, righty or lefty. He’s averaging 90 pitches a game this season, up from 78 last season. He doesn’t often make it to the 6th inning. So, if you’re looking at Gray’s results and feeling iffy about the Braves, I don’t blame you, but I would be surprised if he takes his start past 5 innings, which gives us half a game to see the Twins bullpen. At any rate, it’s the Braves. They’re very good. Michael Harris II has been slowly heating up, so I think if you end up with a lot of Ronald Acuna Jr today, maybe tack on some Michael Harris for the 9-1 stack that won’t be utilized very often today.

I suppose I need to address My Rangers. Ever since I’ve spun up this blog, they’ve been atrocious. I’d be lying if I said I’m not going back to that well today in some capacity against Matthew Boyd. I think might actually be the best spot the Rangers will get all season. They’re not that expensive today and Matthew Boyd is just good enough that people, in my estimation, will not make the Rangers a priority today. This is all guesswork and wish casting at this juncture as I’m still waiting to get into my first lobby today, but I know the field is not high on the Rangers today. I still believe. I’m still taking them. I wouldn’t blame you if you chose not to though.

The Mets are facing Colin Rea today, who is frustrating for fantasy. He’s not good, but he hasn’t given up more than 4 ER yet this season. Which is to say, he hasn’t provided us with any fantasy winners yet. That could definitely change today. The Mets are underperforming terribly, and it’s reflected in ADP. IMO, they are always liable to blow up a slate though, as we’ve recently seen last week against Hunter Brown of all pitchers.

This team is freely available, and should have some stacks built out in a high volume portfolio due to the leverage of weather FUD and recency bias.

The Big Fly is back as I was proofreading this post. That’s awesome – $50, double entry, 4k prizes, 1k to first. Now the question becomes, how do you attack a double entry small field contest? I think the answer is going stack heavy. Five-man onslaughts feel safe. Trying to hit an uncorrelated parlay essentially will have better odds here than in the main slate as well to add another wrinkle to this. I will be waiting as late as possible to draft my entry, as I will want to know as many starting lineups as possible and have the most up to date weather forecast. I will share my entries in this post once they’re complete.

Best of luck today! I hope you have a fantastic week. See you tomorrow.

Nez

Astros (Ronel Blanco, RHP) @ Dodgers (Bobby Miller, RHP)
Twins (Pablo Lopez, RHP) @ Tigers (Reese Olson, RHP)
Nationals (Josiah Gray, RHP) @ Padres (Matt Waldron, RHP, Knuckleballer!)
Angels (Griffin Canning, RHP) @ Rockies (Chase Anderson, RHP)

Good afternoon! It’s main slate time, and we’ve got ourselves a beautiful four game slate to attack. It features one very obvious team to stack, and a meh selection of pitching. We love it, actually. Let’s go.

Pitching Preferences
Pablo Lopez
Bobby Miller
Josiah Gray
Reese Olson
Ronel Blanco
Griffin Canning
Chase Anderson

Today is a game of chicken – who will be the last one forced to take a pitcher at Coors? I can’t see myself getting to any Chase Anderson, but I’m leaving him in that list because those are literally all of the options today, and six must go in every draft.
Pablo Lopez has an ADP of 5 as of writing this, and I completely get it. He has a great matchup against the Tigers, and the rest of the SP today aren’t fun to take. But if they all end up sucking, and you paid up for one, you’re just the person who wasted high draft capital on a couple points, which is definitely in the range of outcomes here. The Tigers are pesky; they’re not as bad as you might think. And when the top 10 in ADP for batters looks like this, you might just be better off hoping Pablo doesn’t separate today.

How many future Hall of Famers can you spot here?

“OK, so Pablo Lopez has the best matchup, but you don’t think he’s going to separate from other SP. Tell me who to draft then Mr. Takes!”
That’s a very fair statement from my very own Straw Man. Here’s what I think I’ll do.

– Pass on Lopez unless he falls to the 3rd round
– Draft Bobby Miller if he is there in the 3rd round
– Draft Reese Olson or Josiah Gray ASAP if Lopez and Miller are gone in the 3rd Round, and construct your team accordingly based on which SP you take

Canning, to be honest, isn’t awful today. The Rockies are downright depressing, granted they just defeated the Angels last night in a quintessential Tungsten Arm O’Doyle game as Ohtani was a triple away from the cycle last night. I just want to avoid him today as often as I can, because at the end of the day, Coors is Coors. If I end up with 0% of him, I’ve succeeded. If I lose because he has the game on the slate, then I will give him an ovation and take my L with grace.

Also, our omitted SP on the slate today is Matt Waldron of the Padres. He’s a 26 year old right handed knuckleballer! That’s cool, we haven’t seen that since 2021. I’ll move on to offenses next and provide more actionable thoughts on Waldron.

Favorite Teams
Angels
Padres
Dodgers
Nationals
Rockies
Twins
Astros
Tigers

So as I mentioned, Nationals get a knuckleballer today. His minor league numbers are pretty bad. There is risk in taking the Nationals today, because the variance in what kind of results a knuckleballer can bring is strong. He could go the entire game without giving up an earned run, or he can be chased out of the first inning. I’m going to trust the numbers I see from the minors and take some stands on the Nationals today. They won’t be my highest owned team today, but I foresee myself getting over the field on them.

The Angels are at Coors against Chase Anderson.

The Padres are at home against Josiah Gray. I love Josiah Gray, but I fear regression (the bad kind) could be headed his way in this game. He’s allowed six home runs in his last four starts, which has been his issue in the past. But he is still sporting a sub-4 ERA on the year, and his expected stats don’t indicate he’s awful. It’s tough to publish this and take a bold stance on Gray muting the Padres today, but I’ll call a boom or bust type of play, where maybe you fade (most) of the Padres and take Gray more than the other SP today and hope he keeps up the season he’s put together thus far. It’s worth a shot today, and you can still build for the opposite outcome a few times to hedge that bet.

Astros get Bobby Miller, a nice right handed rookie who just recently got shelled against My Giants. The Astros in their current form are not a better team than the Giants, and I don’t think are well equipped to handle him today. If I don’t take Bobby Miller I may sprinkle in some Kyle Tucker here and there, but I will really need to force myself to take any Astros bats today.

Ronel Blanco for the Astros has been ok, but seems to be in over his head against the Dodgers today. I’m a little surprised that after Freeman and Betts going 7 and 8 respectively, the next Dodger off the board currently is Will Smith at pick 23. Today is not a day to be riding the #NeverDodgers bit. These are great costs to be taking plenty of them today against a 29 year old with very little experience starting games at the Major League level.

Good luck today! Shoutout to Hope last night for taking 4th place in the main slate and giving the old Take Sheet a shout out. I loved seeing that, and I was more than happy to explain what a Quality Start was to someone for the first time on the verge of winning a few hundred dollars. I hope her W can inspire some others to dip their toes in the MLB streets and help build that bankroll for future contests.

See you all on Monday! Enjoy the rest of your weekends.

Nez

Mariners (Bryce Miller, RHP) @ Orioles (Dean Kremer, RHP)
D-backs (Merrill Kelly, RHP) @ Giants (Bullpen game)
Mets (Max Scherzer, RHP) @ Philles (Cristopher Sanchez, LHP)
Rangers (Jon Gray, RHP) @ Yankees (Luis Severino, RHP)
Athletics (Hogan Harris, LHP) @ Blue Jays (Jose Berrios, RHP)
Royals (Jordan Lyles, RHP) @ Rays (TBD)
Braves (Jared Shuster, LHP) @ Reds (Graham Ashcraft, RHP)
Red Sox (James Paxton, LHP) @ White Sox (Lance Lynn, RHP)
Pirates (Osvaldo Bido, RHP) @ Marlins (Bryan Hoeing, RHP)
Brewers (Freddy Peralta, RHP) @ Guardians (Tanner Bibee, RHP)

Good morning! Ten games for the early slate, then four games for the 15k Main Slate. Because of that, I’m going to keep this slate’s outlook brief. I won’t be drafting much of it, and if I do, I’ll just end up taking Henry Davis on every team because he is the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. Thankfully no troublesome weather spots by the looks of it. Let’s get into some lists.

Pitching Preferences
Jon Gray
James Paxton
Jose Berrios
Max Scherzer
Dean Kremer
Bryce Miller
Tanner Bibee
Osvaldo Bido

Oh buddy do we have some mid starters on the mound today! Nothing that exciting at all today. Jon Gray has gotten some great results this season and loves to pitch 7 innings of ball. The Yankees are a team we will be attacking on every slate until Judge gets back or they make a trade to improve their offense.

James Paxton is such a beast. Knocking on every piece of wood furniture I own so that health remains on his side for the rest of the season. White Sox are righty dominant but I’ll still be opting for Big Maple when I can.

Jose Berrios is having a very nice season! Good for him. I’m not scared of My Athletics here, Berrios is a fine option on a slate like today.

No idea what to make of Max Scherzer. He did what he was supposed to do against the Astros last start, going 8 strong with 8 Ks and 1 ER. I will need to see him do it again today against the Phillies before I’m back in as a believer. he is the SP1 today in ADP, so I won’t have much of him if that is the going rate in my lobbies.

Favorite Teams
Braves
Rays
Reds
Rangers
Mets
D-backs
Red Sox
Guardians

Holy moly do we have some enticing spots today for bats. The over/under for Braves @ Reds is 12.5 runs, lol. That is fun. ADP reflects this as it should. You can take any one in those starting lineups. I’m always going to opt for the lesser owned guys in these games for the uniqueness with access to the same white hot run environment. Spencer Steer, Matt McLain, Tyler Stephenson, Kevin Newman come to mind for the Reds, and Marcell Ozuna, Eddie Rosario, Orlando Arcia, Travis d’Arnaud for the Braves side.

The Rays are facing Jordan Lyles, who is there to eat innings and give up runs. Wait for the lineup to come out and stack ’em up.

Guardians are facing Freddy Peralta, who is fine. But he’s a righty, and I like to build a couple Guardians stacks when that happens. Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, Josh Naylor, Josh Bell are fun to put together with a one off.

Like I mentioned, keeping today’s post brief. Ten games lends itself to tons of variance, so keep this in mind if you’re going to play this slate. Best of luck. I’ll have a main slate post up shortly!

Nez

Rangers (Dane Dunning, RHP) @ Yankees (Clarke Schmidt, RHP)
Mariners (Logan Gilbert, RHP) @ Orioles (Kyle Gibson, RHP)
Mets (Kodai Senga, RHP) @ Phillies (Taijuan Walker, RHP)
Brewers (Wade Miler, LHP) @ Guardians (Shane Bieber, RHP)
Athletics (James Kaprielian, RHP) @ Blue Jays (Chris Bassitt, RHP)
Red Sox (Brayan Bello, RHP) @ White Sox (Lucas Giolito, RHP)
Angels (Patrick Sandoval, LHP) @ Rockies (Kyle Freeland, LHP)
Nationals (Patrick Corbin, LHP) @ Padres (Joe Musgrove, RHP)
Astros (JP France, RHP) @ Dodgers (Emmett Sheehan*, RHP)
D-backs (Zach Davies, RHP) @ Giants (Logan Webb, RHP)

Weather Outlook

Good morning and happy Friday! We’ve made it. Time flies when you’re grinding dailies. I was having a not great week results wise until yesterday, where I almost got home with 1st plus more, but still ended up with two top-5 teams to help make up for the losses from earlier in the week on the third and final slate of the day. That’s just how things go sometimes. On the Underdog MLB show yesterday, Jon and I talked about the baseball META, and how we personally choose to draft, and I mentioned monitoring the lobbies for trends and finding paths to unique stacks and combinations. Last night the slate in question was 10k prize pool, 3-games, and 4-person lobbies. This slate featured two games with tight money line odds, and then Rays and Royals with -330 odds on the Rays, who felt like a giga smash. Drafts reflected this too – by the time the 5th round came around in each draft, the Rays 1 through 7 hitters were almost always gone. It wasn’t just one team hogging them usually, either. It would be a group effort by the lobby to gobble up as many Rays as possible, myself included for about half of them. This is what led me to begin taking 4 and 5-man stacks of other teams. Not a groundbreaking conclusion to come to, but I wanted to provide a look into my #mindpalace while I was drafting these teams. Fun night, let’s try and get it again.

Pitching Preferences
Shane Bieber
Joe Musgrove
Brayan Bello
Logan Webb
Chris Bassitt
Lucas Giolito
Dane Dunning
Kyle Gibson
JP France
Logan Gilbert
James Kaprielian
Kodai Senga
Taijuan Walker

All right, here we go. Ten games today, and no seemingly no smash spots for our starters. You know when I have Shane Bieber as my top preference that things are dire. He has one of the better matchups today against the Brewers, and the facts are the facts. (Brace yourself – I’m putting actual statistics into the take sheet) Milwaukee is 4th in the league in K% vs RHP at 24.8%, and 25th in the league in wRC+ against RHP. The Brewers are stinky, we like Bieber today. All of that being said… I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t getting to at least one Brewers stack today in a lineup. I’m not blowing minds by pointing out these stats, everybody is aware the Brewers are not an intimidating team, and fading is going to be a popular position. I’m just saying. Leverage. Anyways, more pitchers I’m into today.

Joe Musgrove is second in my preferences, but I can see him being my number one drafted pitcher today by a long shot. He’s being drafted as the SP3, so he’s getting respect from the field as of this morning. But just doing a little Red Circle/Blue Circle + Fangraphs analysis, it’s pretty easy to look at Musgrove and see some positive regression come his way soon. His spin rates are still elite. He’s still not allowing much hard contact or many barrels. And his opponent plate discipline numbers are essentially the same as years past, when he was getting elite results.

Miss you, Joe.

Chris Bassitt is someone I’m pretty excited to fade today. I’m not sure if my handful of readers are able to tell, but I love the Oakland Athletics. They’re bad, yeah. But their badness is overblown by the fantasy community, IMO. They’re not a team that’s a guaranteed slam dunk to produce fantasy points for opposing pitchers and/or hitters. They are a bottom five offense against RHP (hell, all pitching for that matter, but we’re talking about Bassitt) so he isn’t an awful pick today by any means. But he’s had some bad, bad outings lately on the mound. I’m confident I’ll have as many, if not more, A’s combinations than I will Chris Bassitt teams today. He Does Not Move Me.

Favorite Teams
Angels (Coors Field)
Padres
Rangers
Giants
Orioles

I want to keep this list brief today, because I find these five teams to be in very good spots today, and I could see all of my lineups containing at minimum one batter from at least one of these teams.

Angels don’t require much elaboration from me. It’s Kyle Freeland at Coors. The entire Angels lineup will be drafted at some capacity, but I would recommend taking more of the lesser drafted guys for leverage in a great spot.

Padres face Patrick Corbin. Tatis would be the ultimate 1.01 today if not for the Angels. He still is my 1.01, but if I run insanely pure I’ll mix it up with some Angels instead at that pick. This is another “take some lesser owned players” spot.

Rangers are facing some weather issues in The Bronx today. But if there’s one thing I’ve learned from scary weather spots, it’s to lean in. I’ll have plenty of Rangers as it’s a day that ends in “y” and they’re in a great park against a mediocre starter.

Giants get Zach Davies at home, so the park factor isn’t great for them as the wind doesn’t even appear to be blowing too strongly today. But, their matchup is pristine. I’m going to pray LaMonte Wade Jr. comes back today, because he is the 1.01 of good luck charms for me. Him batting leadoff today would make him someone I want to be greatly over the field on.

And lastly, we have the Orioles against Logan Gilbert, who I really do like. However, left handed power plays well at Baltimore, and Gilbert has been very inconsistent lately. His last four starts:

Orioles ADP as of writing this:

Let’s take advantage of this and hope for a Gilbert clunker today.

Good luck everybody in your drafts today! Enjoy your weekend. I hope to have a post for tomorrow as well, but I do have some plans (shocking) that could interfere, so that is TBD. I will certainly let you know ahead of time.

Nez

Padres (Blake Snell, LHP) @ Giants (Alex Wood, LHP)
Royals (Jose Cuas, RHP) @ Rays (Shane McClanahan, LHP)
Pirates (Mitch Keller, RHP) @ Marlins (Braxton Garrett, LHP)
Mariners (Bryan Woo, RHP) @ Yankees (Domingo German, RHP)

Slate number two of two (maybe two of three?), and we’ve got some easier decisions to make here, which of course offers opportunities for contrarian leverage as well. Beware that this is a Mitch Keller slate, so I will be doing my best to not let myself get blinded with bias.

Pitching Preferences
Shane McClanahan
Blake Snell
Mitch Keller
Alex Wood
Domingo German
Braxton Garret

It took a lot of strength for me to not put Mitch Keller at the top of this list. McClanahan and Snell are smashes today. They could both put up scores that you need to take first. They’re both 1 and 2 overall in drafts, so the field respects this. I could see them falling to the back end of the first round at times too, so maybe feel out a few rooms before taking Snell at 2, because Keller is a really solid option today as a backup.

Alex Wood is a sneaky option today too. He might not rack up the Ks, but he should help keep the game close today. I’m not stacking against him with any enthusiasm and will be taking him if I miss out on my top three today.

Favorite Teams
Rays
Mariners
Pirates
Padres
Yankees

Here’s my favorites today. I’m really nervous to be fading the Marlins, because Mitch hasn’t looked as sharp as his early season self, and they can pile on pretty easily with that lineup. This is risk I’m willing to take on today though.

The Rays just recently beat up on Tyler Wells and the Orioles, and will get 28 year old Jose Cuas as the opener today. Bullpen games can be frustrating, but I will not be overthinking this matchup. The Rays, as long as I can help it, will be a top-owned team for me today.

Domingo German has been fine this season, and is coming off a 7 ER start against the Red Sox. I could see the Mariners being favored in drafts today because of that recent box score, but even if they are, I think I’ll be there with the field today. Jarred Kelenic and Cal Raleigh (if he starts) will be my favorites of that lineup to get a little unique vs the field.

Some one-offs I like today from each team:
Xander Bogaerts
JD Davis
Bobby Witt Jr
Henry Davis
Jesus Sanchez
Cal Raleigh
Willie Calhoun

Best of luck today!

D-backs (Tommy Henry, LHP) @ Nationals (Jake Irvin, RHP)
Braves (Bryce Elder, RHP) @ Phillies (Aaron Nola, RHP)
Athletics (JP Sears, LHP) @ Guardians (Logan Allen, LHP)
Red Sox (Justin Garza, RHP) @ Twins (Joe Ryan, RHP)

Good morning! It’s Thursday, which means we’ve got some early games to draft today. This slate is downright ugly. Let’s see if we can find some angles. There’s also an afternoon slate, which I’ll write up after this.

Pitching Preferences
Joe Ryan
Logan Allen
Aaron Nola
JP Sears
Bryce Elder
Tommy Henry

Joe Ryan is in his own tier today. He’s had an excellent season on the whole, but has not been so in his last four starts. He’s sporting a 6.06 ERA during that span, including a 6 ER game to Detroit at home. The Red Sox are one of the best offenses on this slate today, so it’s not ideal for us. This makes Joe Ryan a nice to have, but not a need to have today.

Speaking of good pitchers with tough matchups, Aaron Nola against the Braves is definitively not fun. He’s taken a step back this season and has become hard to trust. He’s a brand name today, and that alone is responsible for his 7.3 ADP, making him the SP2 behind Ryan. The strikeouts are there, but this will be tough for Nola. I’m not going to be taking him earlier than the 4th round today.

What if Bryce Elder is just legitimately good? I’m not convinced, but he’s good right now. He’s the SP4 today and goes at 15.1 ADP as of writing this. I’m not going to feel great about taking him today, but the other options aren’t great either.

Which leads me to JP Sears taking on the Guardians today. No, they don’t strikeout much. No, Sears hasn’t been flawless or even that good this year. But I’m going to be riding him today. He’s the SP5 on the slate against a Guardians team that is primarily left handed and can’t really do much damage against lefty pitchers. Feels bad, but I’m going big on Sears today. Would could go wrong?

Favorite Teams
D-backs
Phillies (cost adjusted)
Braves
Nationals

As far as stacks go, these are my favorite four. Phillies make for a really interesting stack today, because they don’t go off the board currently until pick 13. I’ll take my chances on them today and take Bryce Elder’s excellent results head on. YOLO.

Braves are expensive today against Aaron Nola. Which feels bad. But I’m trying to strip the names off these pitchers and look more objectively at the matchups, which helps swallow the cost of the Braves today. They’re chalk per ADP, so they could also make for an excellent fade. If I was only drafting 10 teams, I would fade Atlanta today.

The Nationals on the other hand are taking on a lefty, a mid one at that. They are going to win someone a slate today. Onslaught them, mix them up in stacks, however you prefer. But they’re in a fantastic spot and will be undrafted at a disrespectful clip today.

Some one-offs I like from each team:
Esteury Ruiz
Stone Garrett
Orlando Arcia
Max Kepler
Bryson Stott
Josh Naylor
Geraldo Perdomo
Adam Duvall

The last few slates for me have been rough, my worst ROI in a two game sample all season. I’ve been making stands and enjoying the extended bankroll leash from winning last weekend, but it’s time for me to reel it in and stick with my usual daily bankroll. I wish you luck!

Nez

Mariners (Luis Castillo, RHP) @ Yankees (Jhony Brito, RHP)
Athletics (Paul Blackburn, RHP) @ Guardians (Gavin Williams, RHP)
Red Sox (Garrett Whitlock, RHP) @ Twins (Sonny Gray, RHP)
Rangers (Martin Perez, LHP) @ White Sox (Michael Kopech, RHP)
Dodgers (TBD) @ Angels (Shohei Ohtani, RHP)
Padres (Yu Darvish, RHP) @ Giants (Ryan Walker, RHP)

Good afternoon! It’s main slate time. I hope your early slate teams give you some extra cash to throw into this slate, because it’s an interesting one. Let’s get started.

(Available) Pitching Preferences
Luis Castillo
Garrett Whitlock
Yu Darvish
Sonny Gray
Michael Kopech
Jhony Brito
Paul Blackburn
Martin Perez

This is a pretty rough slate for pitching. Ohtani is the mound for the Angels, and Gavin Williams for the Guardians. Neither available for us to draft today, so we’re left with what you see above. Luis Castillo currently has an ADP of 5.8, to me that won’t last long. He’s going to be a top 3 pick for me, maybe even my 1.01 due to the matchup and the other SP on this slate.

But of course, there’s weather to be concerned with, and it directly impacts Mariners @ Yankees. Per Kevin Roth: Starting mostly dry, lighter rain building in through the game. Best guess is that they just play wet. Winds in from center at 10-15mph. I’m going to lean in to the FUD for better or worse.

I’m not going to get to much Yu Darvish today. The Giants are white hot, and Darvish has been rocky. The park is to his benefit, but I don’t see myself getting there today.

Favorite Teams
Padres (Ryan Walker opener)
Angels (Michael Grove, RHP)
White Sox (Martin Perez, LHP)
Giants (Yu Darvish, RHP)
Mariners (Jhony Brito, RHP)
Red Sox (Sonny Gray, RHP)
Rangers (Michael Kopech, RHP)
Guardians (Paul Blackburn, RHP)

We’ve got a lot of righties today, though few are intimidating. Dodgers are taking on Ohtani, and I hate it for them. If I was max entering, I’d have some one off pieces, but stacking them just doesn’t seem smart.

Padres and Giants are both strong targets today. Winds are blowing out at 20 MPH, and of course the park minimizes wind impact. But as I’ve said in the past, I love Giants against righties, and the Padres are just undervalued almost every slate.

Mariners are lowkey exciting today. They get Jhony Brito, who is sporting a .283 ISO against RHH. Mariners are righty heavy, so they feel like a sneaky under-drafted team today to get over the field on.

Today is pretty ambiguous otherwise, in my opinion. I’m a Paul Blackburn respectooor, so I’m not going to be clamoring for Guardians today. I might even take some Blackburn in the 6th on some teams, just to feel something. But otherwise, it feels like a slate where I will spread out exposures and get a little bit of everyone today. Best of luck!

Nez

Orioles (Tyler Wells, RHP) @ Rays (Taj Bradley, RHP)
Blue Jays (Kevin Gausman, RHP) @ Marlins (Sandy Alcantara, RHP)
Rockies (Jake Bird/Connor Seabold) @ Reds (Andrew Abbott, LHP)
Cubs (Kyle Hendricks, RHP) @ Pirates (Rich Hill, LHP)
Royals (Brady Singer, RHP) @ Tigers (Matthew Boyd, LHP)
Mets (Tylor Megill, RHP) @ Astros (Cristian Javier, RHP)
D-backs (Zac Gallen, RHP) @ Brewers (Julio Teheran, RHP)

Let’s get directly into it, because this slate locks in four hours. But first, good morning! I hope you survived last night’s slate. I took one of my harder losses in recent memory, but I needed the humbling.

Pitching Preferences
Kevin Gausman
Cristian Javier
Zac Gallen
Tyler Wells
Andrew Abbott
Sandy Alcantara
Kyle Hendricks
Rich Hill

Happy Tyler Wells day! He gets a pretty tough matchup against the Rays today, but the Rays have fell back to Earth as of late offensively. I love the way Wells pitches, and I will likely have him as my highest exposed pitcher once my drafts are through. This is under the assumption that the field does not have Wells fever like I do.
Kevin Gausman, Zac Gallen, and Cristian Javier otherwise are the three clear cut safest options on this slate. Gausman is either untouchable or getting blown up, so maybe have some tylenol nearby for the possible headache he might cause. Javier is just not as sick as he once was, but he’s still sporting a sub-3 ERA. The Mets are tough, but Javier should be able to hold his own and finish as a top 3 pitcher as he projects.
Andrew Abbott has yet to allow an earned run in his big league career. Seems good. He also gets the Rockies today. Seems fantastic! He is in GABP however, so he could fall victim to the long ball. Only one of his starts have come at home this season, and that was against the Brewers, who kind of stink.

Favorite Teams
Astros (Tylor Megill, RHP)
Reds (Jake Bird/Connor Seabold?)
D-backs (Julio Teheran, RHP)
Tigers (Brady Singer, RHP)
Royals (Matthew Boyd, LHP)
Cubs (Rich Hill, LHP)
Blue Jays (Sandy Alcantara, RHP)

Happy Kerry Bonds day! Kerry and the Kats take on Brady Singer at Comerica, the latter being a former darling of mine, who I desperately wish would figure things out and become good because it would make me look smarter and I like him. He has been bad though. Pretty pretty bad. His expected stats indicate that he’s been getting unlucky, and his .352 Babip would agree with that too. But your Babip is always going to be higher if you’re not pitching well. The Tigers are pesky, if you haven’t heard. Kerry Carpenter will be on a lot of my teams today, in stacks and as a one-off. He rules.
The Astros taking on Megill could be a nice spot for us to take advantage of. People are rightfully down on the Astros in the current form, but they still have Bregman, Altuve, and Tucker, and Megill is not good. Kyle Tucker will be most drafted out of those three, but all three will be in my player pool today in a big way. I will also mix in ancillary offensive pieces too once we get a lineup. It just feels like a Corey Julks day.

You might notice I don’t have the Pirates on my list of favorite teams today. That’s because they stink, and they’re going up against a righty in Kyle Hendricks who I love to respect and think is still pretty damn good even with the rule changes. The Pirates haven’t scored a run in 24 innings, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it lasts a minimum of 31, where Hendricks could easily go 7 strong with like, three Ks. He’s a high floor low ceiling option today but a strong one. On the flip side, Henry Davis is in the player pool now! I’ll definitely be drafting him because I can’t help myself. But that doesn’t mean you should. Also, Bryan Reynolds is, in my estimation, not likely to play today.

Good luck with this slate! I will have a main slate post after the Badge Bros airs, most likely. Thank you for reading this.

Nez

Cubs (Marcus Stroman, RHP) @ Pirates (Johan Oviedo, RHP)
Cardinals (Jordan Montgomery, LHP) @ Nationals (Mackenzie Gore, LHP)
Mariners (George Kirby, RHP) @ Yankees (Gerrit Cole, RHP)
Rockies (Noah Davis, RHP) @ Reds (Ben Lively, RHP)
Athletics (Luis Medina, RHP) @ Guardians (Aaron Civale, RHP)
Red Sox (Kutter Crawford, RHP) @ Twins (Bailey Ober, RHP)
Mets (Justin Verlander) @ Astros (Framber Valdez, LHP)
Rangers (Nathan Eovaldi, RHP) @ White Sox (Dylan Cease, RHP)
D-backs (Ryne Nelson, RHP) @ Brewers (Colin Rea, RHP)
Padres (Seth Lugo, RHP) @ Giants (Anthony DeSclafani, RHP)
Dodgers (Clayton Kershaw, LHP) @ Angels (Reid Detmers, LHP)

Good morning! It is Tuesday, a day I used to coin as the worst day of the week in my corporate days. The weekend feels as far away as it did on Monday, and you’re in the heart of the work week. I have your remedy for a case of the Tuesdays, however – an 11 game baseball slate with some words on how to approach it! Let’s start with pitching.

Pitching Preferences
Marcus Stroman
Framber Valdez
Gerrit Cole
Clayton Kershaw
George Kirby
Nathan Eovaldi
Aaron Civale
Dylan Cease
Justin Verlander
Bailey Ober
Johan Oviedo
Jordan Montgomery
MacKenzie Gore

Arms city over here. This slate has no shortage of quality pitching, which means I will not be anywhere close to even with the field on Gerrit Cole at his current 3.4 ADP. It’s rare that you don’t need to reach for pitching in The Cycle, and today is certainly one of those slates. And if we can wait in The Cycle, then we can absolutely wait in the Main Slate.

Do we buy in on Justin Verlander today? He’s being drafted as the SP9, aka undrafted on average in the Main Slate. The Astros, stop me if you’ve heard this before, are without Yordan Alvarez. Unfortunately, I will be scooping some Justin Verlander in both contests today. Fool me thrice? Well, I have horrible short term memory, so I will forget any wrongdoings and go back to the well for a fourth time, if a fourth time arises.

It’s hard for me to do any sort of bull case writing when the slate is this loaded with Aces, but I will offer a word of caution as I’ve alluded to with Gerrit Cole. He’s an excellent season long pick because he is incredibly durable and rarely gets blown up for a lineup killing score. He is the king of the 1st inning long ball, however. He faces a lot of righties today on the Mariners, so in theory he is a great pick. I just find his path to a huge separation game against his peers very thin today. If I lose money today because of that stance, it is what it is. But I can’t justify his 3.4 ADP as of writing this with the other options on the slate and Cole’s propensity for the long ball with these big boppers on the Mariners. If you are in a legal betting state, I would put some money on Eugenio Suarez +650 to homer, or Ty France +750.

Favorite Teams
Guardians (Luis Medina, RHP)
Reds (Noah Davis, RHP)
Padres (Anthony DeSclafani, RHP)
Dodgers (Reid Detmers, LHP)
D-backs (Colin Rea, RHP)
Nationals (Jordan Montgomery, LHP)
Cubs (Johan Oviedo, RHP)
Brewers (Ryne Nelson, RHP)
Rangers (Dylan Cease, RHP)

The Reds were pretty big chalk yesterday with their lineup full of righties, and despite winning the game, fell flat yesterday in fantasy. They’re once again going to be a top stacked team today. No need to fear McLain, India, or Steer against righties, and De La Cruz, Votto, and Friedl will be excellent targets today as well. This lineup is somewhat chalky today for us, as four infielders have top 30 ADPs. It’s warranted, so find ways to get unique by tacking on stacks of other teams or two one-off players.

Dylan Cease might be back? Who is to say. I’m staying true to my word and making Rangers lineups, because when Cease is bad, he’s bad.

The Guardians are also chalky today. They’re up against my favorite bad pitcher in the league, Luis Medina. I don’t see this going well for the right hander against this barrage of lefty sticks. José Ramírez is a warranted top-three pick today. He’s heating up as of late, and could have a monster game today. I’m of course also interested in my large son Josh Naylor, along with his little brother Bo if he ends up starting today. Josh Bell, Will Brennan, and Andrés Giménez will be a part of my portfolio as well.

Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout are, to me, tough clicks against Clayton Kershaw today. I will likely get to them later in the day as I’m finishing up my drafts, but until then I will likely avoid. Kershaw is just so good. And I am spooked.

That will do it for my thoughts on today. Best of luck in your drafts and other fantasy ventures. Here’s some bonus words.

The Reds have, overnight, become America’s team. Elly De La Cruz is brute forcing his into becoming a household name, Joey Votto is back, and they’ve won nine straight games, taking lone position of first place in the NL Central. The Reds, like the Pirates, have had their fair share of hardship over the last decade, too.

But, thanks to some truly incredible talent development and savvy trades, the Reds are seemingly wiping their hands clean and saying goodbye to the rebuild, entering their new “window of opportunity”. I hate that term, but it’s how executives operate. This team still has talent waiting in the wings, and hasn’t had Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene healthy together at the same time this season for very long at all. I’m happy for my friends who are fans of the Reds. Good for you guys, and enjoy the baseball.

As a Pirates fan, I’m envious. I just want my teams exciting stud healthy and on the field making highlight plays and crushing bombs too. (Miss you, Oneil.) I would love for my team to show some semblance of being able to develop a player that isn’t a can’t miss sure-fire thing. However, that’s just not the reality I or Pirates fans live in. The cheapness on the field quite obviously does not stop there. There’s quite obviously a gap in the resources spent to helping minor leaguers become valuable big leaguers. On top of this, the eye for talent in trades has been abysmal as well. The Marlins netted Jesus Luzardo for Starling Marte from the Athletics. The Pirates, a year+ prior, received Liover Peguero and Brennan Malone. The former hasn’t played in a professional game in over two years, and the latter is blocked in the infield and doesn’t have the bat (yet) to force his way into playing time.

To watch this team is to make an agreement with yourself. That you understand this is a team that, if they win, is done despite the flawed front office, not because of. With this team holding the first overall pick in the 2023 draft, there are about four names they have been rumored to be considering. I will do my best to not get tied down to one option, but if I was making the decisions, I’m taking Dylan Crews knowing good and well that he is the most pro-ready hitter with less risk than an arm such as Paul Skenes, another potential 1.01 option. Personally, I think they look at their needs and take Skenes. However, they’d be much better served with Crews, and shipping off Jack Suwinski, Nick Gonzales, and Liover Peguero for some controllable pitching instead. /end rant

Once again good luck today, and if you’re reading this, thank you!

(Sub to Underdog Fantasy HQ on YouTube)

Cubs (Drew Smyly, LHP) @ Pirates (Osvaldo Bido, RHP)
Rockies (Austin Gomber, (LHP) @ Reds (Brandon Williamson, LHP)
Red Sox (James Paxton, LHP) @ Twins (Pablo Lopez, RHP)
Rangers (Andrew Heaney, LHP) @ White Sox (TBD)
Mets (Max Scherzer, RHP) @ Astros (Hunter Brown, RHP)
D-backs (Merrill Kelly, RHP) @ Brewers (Corbin Burnes, RHP)
Padres (Michael Wacha, RHP) @ Giants (Ryan Walker*, RHP)

Good morning! I hope you all had great weekends. I was fortunate enough to take down the third and final slate of the day Saturday. In my post for that slate, I talked about Bobby Miller having a tough matchup, and wanting to be overweight on the D-backs vs the field. I won’t always have the answers, but it was cool to have happen how it did. I will almost always have some percentage of my portfolio dedicated to the Giants when facing a righty, but the stance on the D-backs only paid off late in the game thanks to the solo Lourdes Gurriel home run. It was a fun sweat, and a nice opportunity for me to pat my own back. I really don’t like to tout my W’s on twitter, it feels uncomfortable and braggy in a space where cold streaks can have real effects on ones mental health. But, seeing as I am an aspiring living-maker in this space, I have to market myself when the opportunities present themselves. Here’s to more posts and more W’s from all of us in this space.

Pitching Preferences
James Paxton
Corbin Burnes
Merrill Kelly
Hunter Brown
Max Scherzer
Michael Wacha
Pablo Lopez
Drew Smyly
Andrew Heaney
Osvaldo Bido
Austin Gomber
Brandon Williamson

We’ve got some olds and we’ve got some youths on today’s slate! Wacha, Paxton, and Scherzer are all solid options today. Scherzer in particular I think could really benefit from some recency bias by the field. It’s not sexy on paper, but the Astros without Yordan just do not scare me enough to fade their opposing pitcher, even if it’s an up and down Max Scherzer.

Hunter Brown has been excellent this year. He faces the Mets today, who have gotten back Pete Alonso ahead of schedule. Brown is not being drafted like someone who can have the top score on the slate today, which I think is in his range of outcomes. It’s scary with a healthy Mets lineup, but I’m going to lean in to Hunter Brown’s discount today.

Favorite Teams
Reds (Austin Gomber, LHP)
Rangers (@ White Sox, TBD)
Padres (@ Giants, bullpen game)
Rockies (Brandon Williamson, LHP)
Pirates (Drew Smyly, LHP)
White Sox (Andrew Heaney, LHP)
Cubs (Osvaldo Bido, RHP)
Red Sox (Pablo Lopez, RHP)
Mets (Hunter Brown, RHP)
Astros (Max Scherzer, RHP)
Giants (Michael Wacha, RHP)

EDIT: There are legitimate weather concerns for Rockies @ Reds

I have to talk about the Pirates, I’m sorry. They face Drew Smyly, who has gotten great results this season, but does appear to be outperforming some of his expected stats. I will always play the Pirates against a LHP, and this is my blog based on my own leans so I’m here to tell you I am playing the Pirates today. Henry Davis has finally gotten the call up, but isn’t available in the player pool today. He brings legitimate 20 HR power as a right handed hitter, further bolstering the Pirates lineup against all arms, but especially lefties. I can see him batting lead off or cleanup today. I’ll want players around him today against Smyly at home. This is a personal stance and you can mirror me if you’d like. McCutchen, Rodolfo Castro, Connor Joe, Bryan Reynolds and Hayes will be on a handful of my teams.

On the whole, there are actually not many “smash” spots today, which to me indicates a good slate to fade whichever team is the most expensive on the slate. I’m curious to see who the White Sox start today, as the Rangers offense has been muted as of late, but I don’t expect that to last forever. I’ll continue to stack their 1 through 9 hitters in various combinations in my portfolio until they hit big. Leody Taveras and Ezequiel Duran are some of the most underrated players in baseball right now, and they go overlooked on every slate. I love finding ways to mix them in as one offs or used to make my Rangers onslaughts unique.

I love the Giants. My last two 1st place finishes had LaMonte Wade Jr. in the lineup. I don’t love them today against Michael Wacha. I will have some builds with lefty sticks from San Francisco included, but they will not be a priority target of mine today. Wacha is filthy, lol. His resurgence dating back to last season is remarkable.

Best of luck today! I appreciate you for giving this a read. If you have any suggestions on how this can be improved or anything you’d like for me to incorporate in the future please let me know. I understand the hubris that something like this gives off, to simply write out my favorite plays with little to no data to go alongside these. I try not to get too inundated with projections and numbers, and instead rely on my understanding of matchups and finding ways to leverage exposures against the field where there are blind spots. I play MLB dailies every day, and I don’t win every day. It’s a grind, but it can be rewarding. Best of luck if you’re playing today, and if you’re not but you are still here, thank you.

Nez

Third and final slate of the day, and we’ve got a tough four gamer featuring some of the best offenses in baseball squaring off with some of the best arms. Let’s dive in.

Yankees (Clarke Schmidt, RHP) @ Red Sox (Brayan Bello, RHP)
UPDATE: Yankees and Red Sox has been PPD.
Rays (Zach Eflin, RHP) @ Padres (Blake Snell, LHP)
Giants (Alex Wood, LHP) @ Dodgers (Bobby Miller, RHP)
Guardians (Shane Bieber, RHP) @ D-backs (Tommy Henry, LHP)

First things first, our one and only major weather concern today is Yankees and Red Sox. Per Kevin Roth: “ORANGE: NYY @ BOS – Woof. High-res models have a tiny little window around first pitch, but it’s book-ended by widespread rain before and likely during the game, so I think it might be a bit much to but any real confidence in that tiny window this far out. Bottom line: quite risky, could get an early PPD… if it doesn’t then we can re-evaluate.” Kevin tends to err on the side of caution, but we’ve got an afternoon slate to draft while we wait out this weather. I’ll evaluate the slate as if they play all 9 without issue.

Pitching Preferences
Brayan Bello
Blake Snell
Bobby Miller
Zach Eflin
Shane Bieber
Tommy Henry
Alex Wood
Clarke Schmidt

I’m starting things off hot tonight with Brayan Bello at the top of my preferred pitchers today. He’s been #good, and the Yankees have not been sans Judge.
Snell and Eflin squaring off should be fantastic. Both offenses they’re facing are formidable. Truly anything can happen, but for my money, I’ll take Snell more than Eflin today.
Bobby Miller has been as good as one could possibly be in their first collection of Major League starts. That said, the Giants will be a tough customer for the rookie today. He’s still a top six option to me, but not a sure fire slam dunk. I will be curious to see what his ADP settles at tonight.
Tommy Henry isn’t very good, and the Guardians don’t like to strikeout. But his floor seems better than most today, oddly enough. Guardians don’t match up well against LHP. If you’re really in a bind at pitcher for your last pick, he’s honestly fine.

Team Rankings
Red Sox
Dodgers
D-backs
Padres
Rays
Giants
Guardians
Yankees

Justin Turner went scorched earth yesterday, and almost cost me some money if it wasn’t for d’Arnaud doing what he does best – hitting multiple homers in one game. I never found Clarke Schmidt to be an awful pitcher, but he’s definitely someone I would be targeting against with the lefty heavy Red Sox. The weather looks threatening, so draft them with caution.

Dodgers get former-Dodger Alex Wood today, a crafty lefty who is always under-appreciated by the field. He has one of the toughest starts on the night, and I expect the field will be be all over the Dodgers today. Plenty of right handed batters to choose from, and Freddie is just a daily play at this point. This has trap game vibes for LA, so I’m going to be careful about how many Dodgers I’m taking.

Shane Bieber had a really nice start against the Astros in his last outing, going for 7 IP, 9 K, and zero ER on 104 pitches. I’m not expecting another gem tonight, however. Arizona is good. I’m hoping they are under-priced today in ADP, as that would make them extremely attractive in drafts. Corbin Carroll is inevitable.

I hope everyone has a great weekend. I likely will not have a post tomorrow, but time will tell. These posts have been enjoyable for me, and I hope they’ve been somewhat enjoyable for you too. Best of luck today. Here’s a pick-em before I sign off.

Good morning! We had ourselves a classic bankroll management 101 type slate yesterday, with Justin Turner and Travis d’Arnaud making themselves must haves on a slate where overall, not many fantasy points were accumulated. If you happened to position yourself off of those two for a majority of your plays, you were essentially wiped. Not very fun! This is why we don’t want to play more than we’re comfortable with, as we want to give ourselves a chance to fight another day.

We have three total slates today, each with 10k prize pools. 30k up for grabs for MLB in a single day on Underdog is something I could only hope could take place at the beginning of the season, so I appreciate how far these niche contests have come. Let’s get into the first two slates.

DAYTIME DIAMOND
Tigers (Joey Wentz, LHP) @ Twins (Jose De Leon, RHP)
Orioles (Kyle Gibson, RHP) @ Cubs (Justin Steele, LHP)

3-person drafts with no ADP for this early slate, but a 10k prize pool still. I personally won’t be drafting many teams on this slate. Twins are going with a bullpen game, and Joey Wentz is sporting a 7.23 ERA and is somehow making his 13th start for the Tigers this season. If I was drafting, I’m taking Gibson or Steele before I’m left with likes of Wentz or JDL.

I am pretty worried about Justin Steele. He missed time with a forearm strain, but was really effective before then. My fear is the Cubs are rushing him back, but on this slate we have no choice but to lean in that he’s 100%. On the flip side of his game, Gibson has been worth every cent of his deal with Baltimore this season. He’s better served on large slates where he can be your in case of emergency pitching option as opposed to being a top 2 option on a slate. I have yet to jump in, but I wonder if the field will be punting pitching entirely or reaching like I am suggesting doing? There could be some big leverage in going with the top options in either Detroit or Minnesota and then taking one of Steele or Gibson. With two game slates, you really just want to cover a little bit of everything and call your shots after.

Here’s my top 15 players today for the Early Only (no lineups released as of writing this)
– Kyle Gibson
– Justin Steele
– Byron Buxton
– Kerry Carpenter
– Zack McKinstry
– Spencer Torkelson
– Carlos Correa
– Royce Lewis
– Kyle Farmer
– Austin Hays
– Adley Rutschman
– Christopher Morel
– Cody Bellinger
– Anthony Santander
– Donovan Solano

THE STRETCH
Blue Jays (TBD) @ Rangers (Dane Dunning, RHP)
Marlins (Braxton Garrett, LHP) @ Nationals (Cole Irvin, RHP)
Phillies (Cristopher Sanchez, LHP) @ Athletics (James Kaprielian, RHP)
Pirates (Mitch Keller, RHP) @ Brewers (Wade Miley, LHP)
Angels (Griffin Canning, RHP) @ Royals (Mike Mayers, RHP)
Reds (Hunter Greene, RHP) @ Astros (Brandon Bielak, RHP)
Cardinals (Adam Wainwright, RHP) @ Mets (Kodai Senga, RHP)
Rockies (Connor Seabold, RHP) @ Braves (Bryce Elder, RHP)
White Sox (Lucas Giolito, RHP) @ Mariners (Logan Gilbert, RHP)

Pitcher Preferences
Mitch Keller
Hunter Greene
Bryce Elder
Kodai Senga
Brandon Bielak
Griffin Canning
Lucas Giolito
Logan Gilbert

Happy Mitch Keller day to all who celebrate! He gets a pretty weak Milwaukee lineup today, but is in a hitter friendly park. On top of that, Keller has only recently bounced back from a few duds where his K rate plummeted. Slightly concerning, but not stopping me from being overweight Mitchy today.
Lucas Giolito and Logan Gilbert both receive the benefit of playing in TMobile Park today. The lineups they’re both facing are just threatening enough that I don’t find them to be slam dunks, despite the fact they both match up well facing two right handed dominant lineups.
Hunter Greene, I’m hoping, will be a bold call today as my SP2. It’s not great for baseball when two of its best hitters (Yordan and Judge) are both out due to injury, and especially not good for their respective clubs. The Astros are a dangerously mid lineup without Yordan Alvarez and I think Hunter Greene can feast today. This is mostly a cost adjusted play, as he will go in every draft, it’s just a matter of when you have to take him if you want him.

Favorite Teams
Braves (Connor Seabold, RHP)
Rangers (TBD)
Angels (Mike Mayers, RHP)
Mets (Adam Wainwright, RHP)
Phillies (James Kaprielian, RHP)
Nationals (Braxton Garrett, LHP)
Marlins (Cole Irvin, RHP)
Pirates (Wade Miley, LHP)

Braves are once again the top stacking option today. Sean Murphy should be back in the lineup today, he could be our d’Arnaud of the afternoon slate.
We are still awaiting the starter for Toronto today. Rangers have continued to win but haven’t been piling on the runs as of late. That could very well change depending on the Blue Jays plan at pitcher.
Our Pirates face a lefty today, which is good for their lineup. Rodolfo Castro no matter what, but also Connor Joe, McCutchen, and Hayes will also be a part of my player pool today.
Braxton Garrett is a pretty good pitcher. But the Nationals have been a pleasant surprise offensively, and they fare well against LHP. I’ll be mixing in a little bit of all their righties, including some 4 and 5 man stacks.

I’ll have some Main Slate thoughts up after I run to H-Mart with the missus, who just came back from a week long trip in Kenya. Have to earn my good graces to disappear for two hours while I draft loads of teams. I also missed her, unapologetic simp over here. Good luck today! Be back shortly.

Nez

Good morning! Happy Friday! Do you love 14 game slates? I don’t! But I’ll be in here anyways. Bravely fading a handful of matchups and celebrating any ROI in the green. Here are today’s matchups

Marlins @ Nationals

Cardinals @ Mets (orange/yellow weather rating)

Yankees @ Red Sox

Rockies @ Braves

Blue Jays @ Rangers

Reds @ Astros

Angels @ Royals

Tigers @ Twins

Pirates @ Brewers

Guardians @ D-backs

Rays @ Padres

Phillies @ A’s

Giants @ Dodgers

White Sox @ Mariners

Pitcher preferences

Zac Gallen vs Guardians

Joe Ryan vs Tigers

Shane McClanahan vs Padres

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Michael Kopech @ Seattle

Kevin Gausman @ Rangers

Yu Darvish vs Rays

Rich Hill @ Brewers

Sandy Alcantara @ Nationals

Taijuan Walker @ Athletics

–

Miles Mikolas @ Mets

JP France vs Reds

Trevor Williams vs Marlins

Domingo German @ Red Sox

JP Sears vs Phillies

Andrew Abbott @ Astros

Once again we have a plethora of options at SP, for Cycles and Main Slate. Zac Gallen I instinctively listed as my top option. I think, after curating this list, I would prefer Joe Ryan. Guardians are never a team to strike out much, but they’ve also got a bit of a power surge going on. Gallen can certainly shut a team like them down, but beware the lefty bats in this Guardians lineup. 

Another guy who is facing the Mid-Atlantic version of the Guardians is Sandy, who is taking on the Nationals. They’re, as we’ve coined on the UDMLB show, the right handed Guardians. They don’t strike out a lot, and are pesky when facing LHP. Sandy is of course a righty, so he might be able to cruise through this game and get to 8 or possible 9 innings, truth be told. However, he has not been that guy this season. I’m going to see what the market thinks but my gut tells me that he will be overdrafted. If he’s available late frequently, I’ll be taking a good amount of Sandy.

Domingo German is probably someone I am not giving enough respect to in this list. He’s been a good, but is going up against the Red Sox in Boston. My hope is he gets drafted highly because of his player card/past performances. I’ll take him late in the Cycle if he’s falling, but that spot is not for me, personally.

Favorite teams

Angels (Brady Singer, RHP)

Braves (Dinelson Lamet, RHP)

–

Blue Jays (Martin Perez, LHP)

Dodgers (Opener John Brebbia, RHP)

White Sox (Bryan Woo, RHP)

D-backs (Triston McKenzie, RHP)

Giants (Emmet Sheehan, RHP)

Phillies (JP Sears, LHP)

Pirates (Julio Teheran, RHP)

Athletics (Taijuan Walker, RHP)

This is a haves and haves not, studs and duds, choose your cliche type of day. There are about ten teams are facing some degree of difficulty in their matchups, and then the Angels and Braves, who I don’t feel the need to sell too strongly. One word of caution is Shohei Ohtani, who has been on a tear of all tears, just pitched last night. He is a sit candidate, but quite obviously do not fade him. Too many good swap options to care about that, just pointing that out!

The Blue Jays look like a smiddash today. Facing a lefty who most people want to be a bad real life and fantasy pitcher so badly, but always seems to mute teams in these spots in Martin Perez. This feels extremely trappy to me, but I will not be able to resist a few Blue Jays combinations. In the Cycle I can see myself fading them. This is under the assumption that they are going to be pricey today. 
Update: They are not expensive at all. Near impossible to fade at their ADP currently.

The D-backs are in a very interesting spot today. I love them against anybody right now, and McKenzie on paper is a tough matchup. However, Arizona is arguably the hottest team in baseball. I’m going to ride the hot hand today and hope people give McKenzie too much respect.

On the flip side, the Phillies take on another Athletics favorite of mine (word to Luis Medina) in JP Sears. Lefties match up well with the Phillies and Sears is a good one. Here’s hoping the field just assumes Sears is another warm body in an A’s uniform, because he is actually good and facing a lefty dominate lineup. I’d be remiss to not note that Trea Turner and JT Realmuto are beginning to heat up.

And of course, I’m sure you see the Pirates on my list of favorites today against Julio Teheran. He has gotten excellent results thus far, and even his xFIP of 4.48 isn’t horrible. However, what better time to bet against him when people are finally starting to show him respect against a team people also don’t respect in the Pirates? I’ll be playing them today. Not super confident in the play, but it feels like great leverage. Doing it for me.

Here’s a pick-em I made. Simply playing the hits

Hope everyone has a good day and great weekend. Take a walk, get 10k steps in, tell your loved ones you love em. Let’s win some money.